Sentences with phrase «decadal record»

A belief that is contradicted when the real world annual and decadal record is closely examined..

If the 1990s and 2000s have been seeing higher highs then these decadal records should hint at an uptrend.

Not exact matches

The value of this information is illustrated by the results of a study published May 19 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by Oster's group, working with colleagues from the Berkeley Geochronology Center, the Smithsonian Institution National Museum of Natural History and the University of Cambridge titled «Northeast Indian stalagmite records Pacific decadal climate change: Implications for moisture transport and drought in India.»

These recordings show that the volcano is active on a decadal timescale.

Using records stretching back to 1791, the study finds that a switch in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO has always been accompanied by changes in temperature in the north and south Pacific Ocean.

The researchers compared this long fire record with weather patterns: the well - known El Nino and La Nina cycles that occur every two to seven years, as well as longer cycles called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Phase shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can be readily detected in the long - term records of annual snowfall.

Shuman, C.A. and C.R. Stearns, Decadal - length composite inland West Antarctic temperature records, Journal of Climate.

Why should the late 20th century be any different from any other time, and where are these decadal weather forcings in the paleo record?

Although Be10 records do not show great correlation below the decadal scale (but they will show the 11 year cycle if taken at annual resolution) they start to show much better agreement at 30 + yr timescales and in identifying large events.

Now scientists have concluded this century, that this natural variation «weather» signal can be large enough to put a significant mismatch between model output and current decadal temperature record.

(b) Number of records used, and probability that the decadal average is as elevated as the 1990s (green).

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

But questions remained concerning the degree of decadal variability, the length of the record and the balance in the models between aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity (which can't really be disentangled using this measure).

Disagreement among overlapping observations indicates unresolved drifts that suggest the TSI record is not sufficiently stable to discern solar changes on decadal time scales.»

Indeed regionally, interannual and decadal variability is still dominant in the climate record and will be for a long time.

Knowing the biota food source relationship to ice and what whales fed on what biota, the researchers were able to take the position of the whale kills from the admiralty records and map the decadal long position of the southern ice coverage.

The amplitudes of the pre-industrial, decadal - scale NH temperature changes from the proxy - based reconstructions (< 1 °C) are broadly consistent with the ice core CO2 record and understanding of the strength of the carbon cycle - climate feedback.

We find these decadal flats, falls, and rises in the real world temperature record as well.

Cloud changes are the biggest source of decadal climate change in the record.

Eight out of the 10 warmest years in India were during the recent past decade (2001 - 2010), making it the warmest decade on record with a decadal mean temperature anomaly of 0.49 °C.

The minimum ice extent was the second lowest in the satellite record, after 2007, and continues the decadal trend of rapidly decreasing summer sea ice.

Here we present a decadal - resolution record of storminess covering the Late Holocene, based on a 4 - m - long core taken from the peat bog of Cors Fochno in mid-Wales, UK.

... the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011.

The second chart shows that over the 20thC the SL record was marked by significant decadal oscillations in the rate of rise, varying from -1 mm / year to +5 mm / year, but no apparent acceleration over the period.

A cold phase transition, which the historical record indicates can occur quite rapidly with large secular temperature changes on a decadal time scale, would truly be a catastrophe.

These sudden decadal changes tend to become ameliorated over the 50 year period with shifts rrestricted to 0.25 C except the fifty year period commencing around 1660 which is by far the greatrest shift in the entire CET record.

Here we show that in addition to other well - known climate indices, solar forcing largely drives decadal, interdecadal, and centennial cycles within the tropical cyclone record.»

A 2100 - yr decadal - resolution salinity and aridity proxy record of lacustrine ostracode - shell Mg / Ca ratios from a closed - basin lake in the northern Great Plains shows statistically significant periodicities of ∼ 400, 200, 130, and 100 yr.

It shows the Hockey stick paleo reconstructions - smoothed 50 year records - and decadal CET instrumental (and reconstruction) The blue lines closed at the top represent glacial retreats and closed at the bottom glacial advances.

The link between solar cycle length and decadal global temperature changes is obvious throughout all the weather records.

Nor is there any real doubt that we are in a cool decadal mode and that these persist for 20 to 40 years in the records.

In conclusion, our analysis suggests that strong interannual and decadal variations observed in the average land surface temperature records represent a true climate phenomenon, not only during the years when fluctuations on the timescale of 2 - 15 years had been previously identified with El Nino events.

Noteworthy in the reconstructions are the post-1976 warm / wet period, unprecedented in the 1,425 - year record both in amplitude and duration, anomalous and prolonged late 20th century warmth, that while never exceeded, was nearly equaled in magnitude for brief intervals in the past, and substantial decadal - scale variability within the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age intervals.

Hurst - Kolmogorov dynamics in long climatic proxy records Hansen similarly ignores the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and other natural oscillations that provide better forecasting.

The proposed methodology quickly highlights oscillations and teleconnections among the records at the decadal and multidecadal scales.

On decadal timescales the increase in the NAO from the 1960s to 1990s... may also be partly explained by the upwards trend in solar activity evident in the open solar - flux record....»»

The researchers conclude that since 1850, climate records indicate that adding the 18.6 year lunar Nodic cycle to the 11 year solar activity cycle is helpful in explaining the decadal modulations of the ENSO indices.

Greenland recorded the largest decadal temperature anomaly, at +1.71 °C above the long - term average and with a temperature in 2010 of +3.2 °C above average.

Here, we test a new proxy — the oxygen isotopic signature of individual benthic foraminifera — to detect rapid (i.e. monthly to decadal) variations in deep ocean temperature and salinity in the sedimentary record.

A 10 - year low - pass filter has been applied to each record to highlight decadal and longer time scales.

Concerning the derivation of my own graphical adaptations of the IPCC and Hadley Center source graphics, the process by which the slopes of historical CET trend lines were determined is readily evident from direct examination of the illustration, without any further explanation other than to clarify that all fitting of trend slopes was done by visually placing each linearized trend line onto the original HadCET source plot wherever it was appropriate in the CET record for the particular decadal rate of change being fitted: -0.1, -0.03, +.03, +0.1, +0.2, +0.3, or +0.4

While the correlation displays decadal - scale variability similar to changes in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), the LDSSS record suggests rainfall in the modern instrumental era (1910 — 2009 ad) is below the long - term average.»

Modeling of the recent decadal climate record would require careful accounting for all of the radiative forcings, and would also require accurate modeling of ocean dynamics to accurately simulate the climate system's response time.

At the same time, records with decadal to centennial resolution (along with their estimates of uncertainty) are important constraints on low - frequency responses of the climate system.

Yet then after that you say, with apparent complete confidence, that on a (multi)- decadal scale instrumental records show a positive trend.

Additional proxy records that cover the entire CE are needed to investigate decadal - to centennial - scale responses of climate to changes in radiative forcing as well as internal variability at these time scales.

An «estimate» and / or «reconstruction» of an annual or decadal temperature mean from data recorded only in June and July is just a «swag» (a scientific wild - ass guess).

Bob — you were talking about the pause which is due to natura variability — the limits to which are far from the mere decadal variability we have seen in the instrumental record.

The above finding reinforces the conclusion of Scafetta (2010b) that the IPCC (2007) GCMs do not reproduce the observed major decadal and multidecadal dynamical patterns observed in the global surface temperature record.