Sentences with phrase «decadal scale predictions»

It doesn't seem surprising to me that GCM simulations don't give useful decadal predictions on regional scale (or at least they are just beginning to get to the point where decadal scale predictions have useful skill IIRC).

Not exact matches

«Based on what we've found, it is possible that sea - level rise over decadal time scales will be a key storyline in future climate predictions,» he said.

Another interesting question concerning a new Maunder Minimum would be the impacts on decadal - scale prediction, where both internal variability and changes in TSI are competitive with changing greenhouse gases.

For the future, data assimilation might help us to keep the state of a climate model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve predictions on seasonal and decadal time scales.

For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.

There has been a recent emphasis in decadal - scale prediction, and also creating a marriage between climate and fields such as synoptic - dynamic meteorology... something relatively new (and a different sort of problem, than say, estimating the boundary condition change in a 2xCO2 world); as Susan Solomon mentioned in her writing, a lot of people have become much more focused on the nature of the «noise» inherent within the climate system, something which also relates to Kevin Trenberth's remarks about tracking Earth's energy budget carefully.

Part of the basis for the Mail's claims appears to be Latif et al's 2008 Nature paper, Advancing decadal - scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

A common theme in the debate is that since models can not make accurate predictions on regional and decadal scales, then they can not make accurate predictions on global or century scales.

«there is still a long way to go before reliable regional predictions can be made on seasonal to decadal time scales.»

Prediction Continued improvements in modeling decadal - scale dynamics — and longer, when ice - sheet and deep - ocean dynamics are included — will continue to affirm the multi-decade arc of strong climate science that concludes «Hansen's worldview is right.»

On the one hand you say «I don't know how to assess skill of decadal trends» and on the other hand you also claim that the «prediction of mean temperature at the regional scale can be done fairly well given the robust temperature trend».

As they have matured, climate models are being increasingly used to provide decision - relevant information to end users and policy makers, whose needs are helping define the focus of model development in terms of increasing prediction skill on regional and decadal time scales.

I agree that the ambition to make (regional) climate predictions even at decadal or longer time scales can not be supported by the current apparent feasibility, given the studies that demonstrate the lack of predictive skill.

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

And his predictions are even worse:» The continuing planetary imbalance and the rapid increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel assure that global warming will continue on decadal time scales.»

The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on interannual and decadal time scales can be improved.»

The development of a fully coupled ocean - ice - atmosphere prediction system is a key issue for a better Outlook and for climate predictions on a decadal time scale.

The key is accurately representing the large - scale ocean circulation and associated heat transport in the climate models used to make the decadal predictions.

Advancing decadal - scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic Sector, Nature, 453, 84 - 88.

Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueth, L. & Roeckner, E. Advancing decadal - scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

317 (2007); N.S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, «Advancing Decadal - Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector,» Nature, Vol.

The decadal prediction experiments are designed to assess the predictability of climate (natural and forced) changes on time scales up to 10 years.

This investigation will also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large - scale teleconnections (Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation), providing the basis upon which seasonal predictions can be developed.

For decadal scale variations a 60 year cycle, which seems to correlate temperatures and the PDO, is well established see the post» Global Cooling - Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions» at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspdecadal scale variations a 60 year cycle, which seems to correlate temperatures and the PDO, is well established see the post» Global Cooling - Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions» at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspDecadal Predictions» at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com.