Sentences with phrase «decadal scale temperature»

The models show no meaningful decadal scale temperature variability.

Not exact matches

There are three main time scales to consider when it comes to warming: annual temperature variation from factors like warming in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño years, decadal temperature swings and long - term temperature increases from global warming.

The ocean factors included upwelling of nutrient - rich water and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a large - scale marine temperature pattern.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), marked by temperature fluctuations in the northern Pacific Ocean on a scale of 40 to 60 years, also plays a role.

Bottom - water temperature and current velocities have also fluctuated in relation to decadal — millennial scale climatic changes during the last de-glaciation and Holocene (Bianchi and McCave, 1999; Marchitto and deMenocal, 2003; Farmer et al., 2011; Cronin et al., 2012).

New research published this week in the Journal of Climate reveals that one key measurement — large - scale upper - ocean temperature changes caused by natural cycles of the ocean — is a good indicator of regional coastal sea level changes on these decadal timescales.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acDecadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acdecadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar acdecadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar activity.

So apparently you're suggesting that decadal - scale precipitation patterns (more, less rainfall) and temperature changes are better explained by atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

The interannual relationship between North American (NA) winter temperature and large - scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and its decadal variation are analyzed.

Spectral analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual mean temperature variation may be related to large - scale atmospheric — oceanic variability such as the solar activity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Although I might not take it for granted that the horizontal homogeneity of temperature due to the dynamic adjustment in the tropics would guarantee the horizontally uniform temperature changes in the decadal scale, the data do show it!

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

But I would suppose that equilibrium climate sensitivity [background] and even global mean surface temperature on a decadal scale could be better nailed down by model pruning and better ocean data.

Next point, changes in volcanic activity can affect decadal and century - scale temperatures due to the random occurence of eruptions of the right sort (though I don't think you dispute that).

I don't know if there may be something to accounting for surface / ocean trends on decadal scales, but I was interested in the possibility in light of the recent «haiatus» in surface temperatures.

The amplitudes of the pre-industrial, decadal - scale NH temperature changes from the proxy - based reconstructions (< 1 °C) are broadly consistent with the ice core CO2 record and understanding of the strength of the carbon cycle - climate feedback.

«The ECS series was never created to examine annual, or even decadal, time - scale temperature variability.

Models all produce natural variability, many of which show temperature flatlines over decadal timescales, and given the wide importance of natural variability over < 10 year time scales and uncertain forcings, one can absolutely not claim that this is inconsistent with current thinking about climate.

Much of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability in surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly patterns and related ecosystem effects in the Arctic and elsewhere can be attributed to the superposition of leading modes of variability in the atmospheric circulation.

A cold phase transition, which the historical record indicates can occur quite rapidly with large secular temperature changes on a decadal time scale, would truly be a catastrophe.

On the one hand you say «I don't know how to assess skill of decadal trends» and on the other hand you also claim that the «prediction of mean temperature at the regional scale can be done fairly well given the robust temperature trend».

However, this relationship (which, contrary to the claim of MFC09, is simulated by global climate models, e.g. Santer et al. [2001]-RRB- can not explain temperature trends on decadal and longer time scales.»

-LSB-...] That industrial carbon dioxide is not the primary cause of earth's recent decadal - scale temperature changes doesn't seem at all odd to many thousands of independent scientists.

Ocean cycles in large part drive the global temperature over year and decadal scales.

Method 1: «The composite - plus - scale (CPS) method, «a dozen proxy series, each of which is assumed to represent a linear combination of local temperature variations and an additive «noise» component, are composited (typically at decadal resolution;...) and scaled against an instrumental hemispheric mean temperature series during an overlapping «calibration» interval to form a hemispheric reconstruction.

The Earth's temperature has warmed in the modern era as a consequence of the strong solar activity during the 20th century (the Modern Maximum) shielding cosmic ray intensification and thus reducing decadal - scale cloud cover, which leads to warming via an increase in absorbed surface solar radiation (as illustrated here by Ogurtsov et al., 2012 and detailed by Avakyan, 2013, McLean, 2014, and others).

Also notice that far more conspicuous rises and falls in temperatures in decadal and centennial scale occurred during the Holocene than now.

He theorizes that the Earth's temperature has warmed in the modern era as a consequence of the strong solar activity during the 20th century (the Modern Maximum) shielding cosmic ray intensification and thus reducing decadal - scale cloud cover, which leads to warming via an increase in absorbed surface solar radiation (as illustrated here by Ogurtsov et al., 2012 and detailed by Avakyan, 2013, McLean, 2014, and others).

My calculations show that combining heliospheric magnetic field (controlling input of the cosmic rays basis of the Svensmark's theory) with changes in the Earth's magnetic field indeed shows close correlation with the temperature variability in the N. Hemisphere on the annual, decadal and multi-decadal scale.

That industrial carbon dioxide is not the primary cause of earth's recent decadal - scale temperature changes doesn't seem at all odd to many thousands of independent scientists.

The large interannual to decadal hydroclimatic variability in winter precipitation is highly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and associated changes in large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns [16].

Exactly, but using good numbers not a «hotchpotch assembly» for which it is claimed to be global temperature (there is no such thing, there is global energy content, but that is totally different story) So calculate correlation CET - GT from 1880 using 5 year bin averaging http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net//CETGNH.htm P.S. your statement on natural variability on decadal scale is grossly misleading, you got about 130 years of good records so you need to look at multi-decadal picture.

Temperature variations at Lake Qinghai on decadal scales and the possible relation to solar activities, Hai Xu, Xiaoyan Liu, Zhaohua Hou, 01/2008, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar - Terrestrial Physics, Volume 70, Issue 1, pp. 138 - 144

Environmental variables estimated over larger spatial and temporal scales included the upwelling index (UI) for 48 ° N, 125 ° W (http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov), an indicator of upwelling strength based on wind stress measurements, as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest), a composite indicator of ocean temperature anomalies [33], seawater temperature from Buoy 46041 ∼ 50 km to the southwest from Tatoosh (www.ndbc.noaa.gov), and remote sensing of chl a (SeaWiFS, AquaModis).

In the case of the upper water in most oceans including the North Atlantic inflow, that temperature is increasing on the same decadal time scales as this ice loss.

All indications are that such input is insufficient to account for the extra thermal energy as reflected in the measured temperatures on decadal or century scale.

I will also add this that looks at seasonal temperatures on a more fine - grained decadal scale than the one you linked.

The small pre-industrial greenhouse gas variations also provide indirect evidence for a limited range of decadal - to centennial - scale variations in global temperature

Unforced variability of global temperature is great, as shown in Figure 4, but the global temperature trend on decadal and longer time scales is now determined by the larger human - made climate forcing.

The CET data for the period indicate a distinct climate shift of some 0.35 degrees centigrade on a 50 year basis, but rather more on a decadal basis, so that well documented era can usefully be our benchmark for temperature comparisons, whilst demonstrating the usefulness of a decadal time scale in determining a change in the climate that is «noticeable» and has an impact on humans and nature.

The decadal - scale variability reflected in the temperature reconstruction from tree rings may well be superimposed over this warmer baseline, but the warmth still would not likely match the observed average maximum temperatures over the past decade (17.54 °C mean maximum average for 1999 — 2008, Fort Valley, AZ, Western Regional Climate Center)(Table S1).

Likewise, a statistician will not automatically be aware of the difference between proxies of low resolution (which may be good at estimating average temperature on a decadal or even centennial scale) and proxies of high resolution that are good at estimating temperature at a yearly level.

«Pooled all of the Holocene global temperature anomalies into a single histogram, showing the distribution of global temperature anomalies during the Holocene, including the decadal - to century scale high - frequency variability...»

Cahalan, R. F., Wen, G. Y., Harder, J. W. & Pilewskie, P. Temperature responses to spectral solar variability on decadal time scales.

A recent analysis of a number of different proxy temperature records suggests that Northern Hemisphere decadal - scale averages over land may have been as much as approximately 0.2 — 0.4 °C above the 1850 — 2006 mean from roughly 950 — 1150 AD (32).

It argues that Global Climate Models (GCMs) that show decadal - scale pauses in surface temperature warming tend to exhibit sea surface temperature patterns similar to those of the PDO in a cold phase.

It is evident that the two curves equally well reconstruct the climate variability from 1850 to 2011 at the decadal / multidecadal scales, as the gray temperature smooth curve highlights, with an average error of just 0.05 °C.

With a simple regression model based on the four cycles (about 9.1, 10, 20 and 60 year period) plus an upward trend, that can be geometrically captured by a quadratic fit of the temperature, in the paper I have proved that all GCMs adopted by the IPCC fail to geometrically reproduce the detected temperature cycles at both decadal and multidecadal scale.

9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions

These linear discriminants, which consist of an RASST anomaly field and a time series that describes the projection of that anomaly in the annual mean RASST field, maximize the ratio of inter-decadal to inter-annual variability, in keeping with our desire to understand the decadal - to - century scale variability in the global mean surface temperatures (see SI Text and Figs.