Sentences with phrase «decadal scale variability»

For myself, I've suggested that 2005 - 2025 is likely to be below 0.2; and specifically somewhere from 0.15 to 0.2, but that's a quick guess not a calculation, based on rough consideration of decadal scale variability /

The key point of GG's analysis is that there is substantial decadal scale variability in Arctic sea ice extent.

Much of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability in surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly patterns and related ecosystem effects in the Arctic and elsewhere can be attributed to the superposition of leading modes of variability in the atmospheric circulation.

There are other and very separate issues you've raised (in minimal detail) regarding models, but quite frankly GCMs are not and never were intended to project decadal scale variability — and over the scales that those climate models cover there's certainly no «hiatus».

It makes a cogent point about model inability to capture decadal scale variabilities in the tropics related to clouds.

Not exact matches

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

April 23, 2018 - A new earth modeling system unveiled today will have weather - scale resolution and use advanced computers to simulate aspects of Earth's variability and anticipate decadal changes that will critically impact the U.S. energy sector in coming years.

On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerlingdecadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and HoerlingDecadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).

Spectral analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual mean temperature variation may be related to large - scale atmospheric — oceanic variability such as the solar activity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Nate, a member of the FI Board of Directors, is the leader for the Landscape Ecology Team at NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center, and has expertise about decadal - scale climate variability and ecosystem regime shifts.

Another interesting question concerning a new Maunder Minimum would be the impacts on decadal - scale prediction, where both internal variability and changes in TSI are competitive with changing greenhouse gases.

Reliable data on decadal variability of the Earth's radiation budget are hard to come by, but to provide some reality check I based my setting of the scaling factor between radiative forcing and the SOI / PDOI index on the tropical data of Wielecki et al 2002 (as corrected in response to Trenberth's criticism here.)

Ice - sheet responses to decadal - scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long - term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.»

She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of climate variations on decadal to century time scales.»

(1) The «fast response» component of the climate system, consisting of the atmosphere coupled to a mixed layer upper ocean, has very little natural variability on the decadal and longer time scale.

Either there's a large decadal - scale internal variability driving it, such as a large pseudo-cyclical increase in deepwater formation, or the Arctic Ocean is near marginal stability under perturbation.

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

While rereading the ocean heat content changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease in ocean heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's heat balance on decadal time - scales.»

``... My comments quoted above refer very specifically to the potential for global models to give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales which are dominated by intrinsic interannual and interdecadal variability.»

The paper... offers a useful framework for which decadal variations in the global (or northern hemisphere) may be explained via large scale modes of oceanic variability.

However, my comments quoted above refer very specifically to the potential for global models to give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales which are dominated by intrinsic interannual and interdecadal variability.

The stagnation in greenhouse warming observed over the past 15 + years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob that can fine tune climate variability on decadal and multi-decadal time scales.

Individual decadal - resolution palaeoclimatic data sets support the existence of regional quasi-periodic climate variability, but it is unlikely that these regional signals were coherent at the global scale.

«The ECS series was never created to examine annual, or even decadal, time - scale temperature variability.

Models all produce natural variability, many of which show temperature flatlines over decadal timescales, and given the wide importance of natural variability over < 10 year time scales and uncertain forcings, one can absolutely not claim that this is inconsistent with current thinking about climate.

Anthropogenic global warming inherently has decadal time scales and can be readily masked by natural variability on short time scales.

The study by Macias & Johnson (2008) provides not only evidence for the link between decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannuDecadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal to interannual.....

However, this same models fail to reproduce the natural cyclical variability of the climate system at many time scales from the decadal to the multidecadal, secular and millennial scale.

The IPCC treats natural internal variability as «noise»; we argue that it is the fundamental climate signal on decadal to century time scales, with external forcing projecting onto these modes.

The platform will complement existing GMES / Copernicus pre-operational components, but will focus on datasets which provide information on climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales from observed and projected climate change impacts in Europe, and will provide a toolbox to generate, compare and rank key indicators.

Ole Willy says, «The hiatus in warming observed over the past 16 years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob on climate variability on decadal time scales.»

This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales.

natural internal variability can be pretty large on decadal to century time scales, and minimization of this variability by the hockey team has been very damaging to the science and the identification and intepretation of natural variability.

As I indicated in an earlier blog, the natural variability at decadal time scales hinders the validation of any projection against observations, as these observations reflect just one possible trend.

Even a perfect model can deviate significantly from past observed trends or changes, just because the physical system allows variability at decadal time scales; the climate and its trend that we're experiencing is just one of the many climates that we could have had.

(A) coordinate programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to ensure the timely production and distribution of data and information on global, national, regional, and local climate variability and change over all time scales relevant for planning and response, including intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and multidecadal time periods;

A high resolution Antarctic ENSO proxy show both the decadal patterns we familiar with but millennial scale variability.

Roger could reply again by stating that models that don't show skill in projecting changing statistics can not be used for this reasoning by simulation, but I remain to disgree with him: the skill of climate models to project changing climate statistics at decadal time scales can formally not be established due to large role of natural variability, but is also not always required for generating useful information that enters the imagination process.

Noteworthy in the reconstructions are the post-1976 warm / wet period, unprecedented in the 1,425 - year record both in amplitude and duration, anomalous and prolonged late 20th century warmth, that while never exceeded, was nearly equaled in magnitude for brief intervals in the past, and substantial decadal - scale variability within the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age intervals.

Natural variability plays a large role in the rate of global mean surface warming on decadal time scales.

Top down modulation of SAM and NAM by solar UV has the potential to explain otherwise little understood variability at decadal to much longer scales in ENSO.

The influence of large - scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-RRB- on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls.

The models show no meaningful decadal scale temperature variability.

The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on interannual and decadal time scales can be improved.»

While the correlation displays decadal - scale variability similar to changes in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO)...» Vance et al 2012

Shifts at decadal scales in the form of rivers — between low energy meandering and high energy braided forms — that suggested decadal variability of rainfall.

Spectral analysis shows the below - average epochs are associated with enhanced ENSO - like variability around 2 — 5 yr, while the above - average epoch is associated more with variability around 6 — 7 yr... While the correlation displays decadal - scale variability similar to changes in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation...» Vance et al 2012

The climate of the past millennium was marked by substantial decadal and centennial scale variability in the Northern Hemisphere.

While the correlation displays decadal - scale variability similar to changes in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), the LDSSS record suggests rainfall in the modern instrumental era (1910 — 2009 ad) is below the long - term average.»

The LIA was dominated by a ∼ 20 year AMO cycle with no other decadal or multidecadal scale variability above the noise level.