Sentences with phrase «decadal shifts in»

And yet we have observations that show large variability against a small trend and decadal shifts in trajectory.

At the very least it emphasises the impact of decadal shifts in rainfall that real hydrologists need to plan for.

Not exact matches

In April 2008, scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-- a larger - scale, slower - cycling ocean pattern — had shifted to its cool phase.

Goddard thinks it may be an early indication of a big shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a kind of long - term El Niño - like pattern of climate variability.

The study stops short of attributing California's latest drought to changes in Arctic sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like warm sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric climate pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.

He thinks their movement may be an early indication of a big shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long - term pattern of climate variability.

Phase shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can be readily detected in the long - term records of annual snowfall.

Plant drought - tolerant species in years with strong El Niño forecasts, particularly during Pacific Decadal Oscillation warm phase; plant trees that require sufficient water during establishment in La Niña years and during Pacific Decadal Oscillation cool phases Focus planting more in spring as fall planting becomes more difficult with reduced soil moisture and test different planting timings as springs shift earlier

Despite large year - to - year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].

In the Swanson and Tsonis paper it is suggested that the decadal variations of the global mean temperature, the climate shifts, observed in the 20th century are basically caused by the synchronization of four modeIn the Swanson and Tsonis paper it is suggested that the decadal variations of the global mean temperature, the climate shifts, observed in the 20th century are basically caused by the synchronization of four modein the 20th century are basically caused by the synchronization of four modes.

Note especially Figure 2 and the related statement, «In 1976, a stepwise shift appears in the temperature data, which corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.&raquIn 1976, a stepwise shift appears in the temperature data, which corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.&raquin the temperature data, which corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.»

These sudden decadal changes tend to become ameliorated over the 50 year period with shifts rrestricted to 0.25 C except the fifty year period commencing around 1660 which is by far the greatrest shift in the entire CET record.

There are many outside factors that contribute to the problem like submarine volcanic activities, shifts in oceanic currents along with the decadal oscillation events responsible for El Mino and so on.

The recognition of decadal climate shifts are an example of better science — the new paradigm of dynamical complexity in climate.

Both the decadal trends and the shift in the date of minimum show distinctly non linear variability.

Even after this is done, some longer term natural variations remain, most notably a phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that causes irregular shifts in the climate roughly every few decades.

Shifts at decadal scales in the form of rivers — between low energy meandering and high energy braided forms — that suggested decadal variability of rainfall.

The stepwise shift appearing in the temperature data in 1976 corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.

Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present - day climate is about 10 years, suggesting the LIA termination in alpine regions of central North America may have occurred on a relatively short (decadal) timescale.

There is a significant anticorrelation between AMOC variations and the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream path at decadal timescales in both observations and two Earth system models.

In 1976/77 the surface temperature of a vast area of the Pacific Ocean abruptly warmed by several degrees as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shifted from «cool phase» to «warm phase».

It also shifts in response to interannual and decadal changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

Our results show that hydroclimatic variability in the Southwest has not remained constant over the last millennia, with a shift from low to high variance at the MCA - LIA transition that was accompanied by a change in quasi-periodic variance, from a higher concentration of power in the multi-decadal periodicities during the MCA vs. interannual and decadal periodicities during the LIA.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703 Now I realize that I have quoted Josh Willis form the NASA site before — but this is one of the critical Earth systems for many reasons — perhaps least for the changes in global surface temperature trajectory associated with the decadal climate shifts.

Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, and B.D. Santer, 2008: The mid-1970s climate shift in the Pacific and the relative roles of forced versus inherent decadal variability, J. Climate, in press.

These are decadal shifts that are non-linear responses to small changes in control variables.

Despite large year - to - year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].

Over the past 60 years, Alaska has warmed more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the United States, with state - wide average annual air temperature increasing by 3 °F and average winter temperature by 6 °F, with substantial year - to - year and regional variability.1 Most of the warming occurred around 1976 during a shift in a long - lived climate pattern (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]-RRB- from a cooler pattern to a warmer one.

The latitudinal limits between those climates are shifting northward or southward according to cycles as seen on figure 21 - B for the USA [74]; this may explain the fear, expressed in the 1970s in many periodical and books, of an imminent glaciation; that fear faded after the reversal of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in 1977.

Hicks Pries CE, van Logtestijn RSP, Schuur EAG, Natali SM, Cornelissen JHC, Aerts R, Dorrepaal E (2015b) Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

Thanks to the availability of data from satellite altimetry, Argo floats, and moored buoys in the tropical Pacific, this decadal phase change is the best - observed decadal climate shift in history.

The CET data for the period indicate a distinct climate shift of some 0.35 degrees centigrade on a 50 year basis, but rather more on a decadal basis, so that well documented era can usefully be our benchmark for temperature comparisons, whilst demonstrating the usefulness of a decadal time scale in determining a change in the climate that is «noticeable» and has an impact on humans and nature.

Barry, will the recent Pacific Decadal Oscillation shift mask some (or a lot) of the warming in the pipeline?.

I have already provided examples of observed real world shifts in global temperature trend going back to 1960 that match very well with shifts in the balance between solar variation and the net global effect of all the separate oceanic oscillations (especially the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which is by far the largest).

This may be related to an ongoing shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over spring and early summer this year.

However, one analysis that has attempted to explain both the very large winter extents of 2012, 2013, and 2014, and the subsequent lower and near - average winter maximums in 2015 and 2016 has suggested that the El Niño Southern Oscillation and a Pacific trend called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a residual tendency toward El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific that shifts on multi-decadal timescales) may be linked to the change.