Sentences with phrase «decadal shifts of»

Not exact matches

Goddard thinks it may be an early indication of a big shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a kind of long - term El Niño - like pattern of climate variability.

The study stops short of attributing California's latest drought to changes in Arctic sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like warm sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric climate pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.

He thinks their movement may be an early indication of a big shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long - term pattern of climate variability.

Phase shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can be readily detected in the long - term records of annual snowfall.

Nate, a member of the FI Board of Directors, is the leader for the Landscape Ecology Team at NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center, and has expertise about decadal - scale climate variability and ecosystem regime shifts.

Despite large year - to - year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].

And just last year, climatologist Jonathan Overpeck warned that humanity is at danger of forcing «abrupt shifts to drier conditions, including possible decadal megadrought.»

Of course, the decadal value hasn't shifted since then but the average for the last week is now +1.79 ppm.

In the Swanson and Tsonis paper it is suggested that the decadal variations of the global mean temperature, the climate shifts, observed in the 20th century are basically caused by the synchronization of four modes.

Note especially Figure 2 and the related statement, «In 1976, a stepwise shift appears in the temperature data, which corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.»

Their coral oxygen isotope index indicated an eastward shift of the decadal mean position of the SPCZ since the mid 1800s.

More recent work is identifying climate shifts working through the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern and Northern Annular Modes (SAM and NAM), Artic Oscillation (AO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and other measures of ocean and atmospheric states.

The recognition of decadal climate shifts are an example of better science — the new paradigm of dynamical complexity in climate.

Both the decadal trends and the shift in the date of minimum show distinctly non linear variability.

Shifts at decadal scales in the form of rivers — between low energy meandering and high energy braided forms — that suggested decadal variability of rainfall.

The stepwise shift appearing in the temperature data in 1976 corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.

Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present - day climate is about 10 years, suggesting the LIA termination in alpine regions of central North America may have occurred on a relatively short (decadal) timescale.

There is a significant anticorrelation between AMOC variations and the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream path at decadal timescales in both observations and two Earth system models.

In 1976/77 the surface temperature of a vast area of the Pacific Ocean abruptly warmed by several degrees as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shifted from «cool phase» to «warm phase».

At the very least it emphasises the impact of decadal shifts in rainfall that real hydrologists need to plan for.

Our results show that hydroclimatic variability in the Southwest has not remained constant over the last millennia, with a shift from low to high variance at the MCA - LIA transition that was accompanied by a change in quasi-periodic variance, from a higher concentration of power in the multi-decadal periodicities during the MCA vs. interannual and decadal periodicities during the LIA.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703 Now I realize that I have quoted Josh Willis form the NASA site before — but this is one of the critical Earth systems for many reasons — perhaps least for the changes in global surface temperature trajectory associated with the decadal climate shifts.

Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, and B.D. Santer, 2008: The mid-1970s climate shift in the Pacific and the relative roles of forced versus inherent decadal variability, J. Climate, in press.

Despite large year - to - year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].

Over the past 60 years, Alaska has warmed more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the United States, with state - wide average annual air temperature increasing by 3 °F and average winter temperature by 6 °F, with substantial year - to - year and regional variability.1 Most of the warming occurred around 1976 during a shift in a long - lived climate pattern (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]-RRB- from a cooler pattern to a warmer one.

The latitudinal limits between those climates are shifting northward or southward according to cycles as seen on figure 21 - B for the USA [74]; this may explain the fear, expressed in the 1970s in many periodical and books, of an imminent glaciation; that fear faded after the reversal of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in 1977.

Thanks to the availability of data from satellite altimetry, Argo floats, and moored buoys in the tropical Pacific, this decadal phase change is the best - observed decadal climate shift in history.

Component C, Predictability, mechanisms, and case studies: the organization and coordination of decadal climate predictability studies and of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours

The CET data for the period indicate a distinct climate shift of some 0.35 degrees centigrade on a 50 year basis, but rather more on a decadal basis, so that well documented era can usefully be our benchmark for temperature comparisons, whilst demonstrating the usefulness of a decadal time scale in determining a change in the climate that is «noticeable» and has an impact on humans and nature.

Barry, will the recent Pacific Decadal Oscillation shift mask some (or a lot) of the warming in the pipeline?.

My essential point remains — the likelihood more than not of no warming for decades at least emerging from decadal climate shifts.

I have already provided examples of observed real world shifts in global temperature trend going back to 1960 that match very well with shifts in the balance between solar variation and the net global effect of all the separate oceanic oscillations (especially the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which is by far the largest).

Has a major shift of decadal influence / tipping point ever happened before?

The real problem with this is that climate is nonlinear — it shifts at decadal and longer periodicities to emergent states dependent on the interplay of control variables and sub-systems.

The presence of the longer - term effects on Australian rainfall from oceanic shifts, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), make the analysis of this situation, and the teasing out of the AGW influence, a complex matter.

They include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) that exhibited a warm phase from 1930 - 1965, but with a transient drop between 1945 and 1948, a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that shifted from warm to cold between 1942 and 1950, and a series of El Nino conditions from 1939 through 1942.

However, one analysis that has attempted to explain both the very large winter extents of 2012, 2013, and 2014, and the subsequent lower and near - average winter maximums in 2015 and 2016 has suggested that the El Niño Southern Oscillation and a Pacific trend called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a residual tendency toward El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific that shifts on multi-decadal timescales) may be linked to the change.