Sentences with phrase «decadal trends of»

I am unaware, though, of any model that accurately represents the various decadal trends of the first three - quarters of the 20th Century nor the beginning of the 21st Century.

However, initialized prediction ensembles using CESM can skillfully predict low - frequency modulations in the decadal trends of Arctic sea ice, and the significant skill scores for Atlantic sector sea ice extent, in particular, suggest that CESM DP future forecasts merit serious consideration.

According to Dr. Natali, «Our results show that while permafrost degradation increased carbon uptake during the growing season, in line with decadal trends of «greening» tundra, warming and permafrost thaw also enhanced winter respiration, which doubled annual carbon losses.»

UAH had a decadal trend of only 0.044 C as late as Jan. 2001.

The minimum ice extent was the second lowest in the satellite record, after 2007, and continues the decadal trend of rapidly decreasing summer sea ice.

If this year is higher than 2007 how can it be continuing a decadal trend of rapidly decreasing ice?

This leaves the door open for ordinary folk to interpret the image as if it were a USA Today map of actual temperatures instead of the < 0.25 C decadal trendings of a continent with an average temperature of -50 degrees C.

Not exact matches

The results refocus the debate on the causes of sea lion pup weight loss from episodic stresses associated with El Niño years to a decadal - long trend of declining forage quality in the waters around the California Channel Island rookeries, the researchers wrote.

Combining the STORM model with analysis of the rainfall data set allowed the investigators to gain insights into decadal trends in monsoonal rainfall intensity under climate change.

Though the ecological effects of these climate oscillations have been described in various settings, the influence of decadal indices to long - term marine turtle population trends is largely unexplored.

[11] Few attribute the decline in fog, and moreover, climate change, to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, however, as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is an oscillation moving heat through the climate system but neither creating nor retaining heat, it is not a cause of warming trends or declines in fog.

Increasing abundances of tropical / subtropical species throughout the 20th century reflect a warming trend superimposed on decadal - scale fluctuations.

The trends in LW and SW are larger than the trend in NET, but it should be noted that getting decadal trends out of satellite data of this sort is difficult.

«Wavelet analysis shows that this relative urban warming trend was primarily manifested in the form of multi - decadal and interseasonal cycles that are likely attributable to gradual increased winter heating in Ottawa (heat island effects) associated with population growth.

I focused on Fig 2 of Rahmstorf 2012, which shows the rate of sea level change in the form of 10 yr decadal trends.

A very consistent understanding is thus emerging of the coupled ocean and atmosphere dynamics that have caused the recent decadal - scale departure from the longer - term global warming trend.

If the decadal warming trend caused by CO2 is.2 C, and if ENSO is now adjusted for, then where is the other.187 C of temperature rise?

Holgate (2007) showed decadal rates of sea - level rise (linear trends over 10 years), but as we have shown in Rahmstorf et al. (2012), those vary wildly over time simply as a result of sampling noise and are not consistent across different data sets (see Fig. 2 of our paper).

The large decadal and local variability of surface temperature may have interfered with the detection of an underlying temperature trend (more «noise» less «signal»).

# 8220; This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation «cool» trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin,» said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. «The persistence of this large - scale pattern [in 2008] tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean.»

Our best armory for the arguments you fear quite rightly is to build up our understanding of decadal variability and the extent to which it can cloud the long term trend.

Thus, I'd say Roger Sr's concern is apt, in the abstract, but is vacuous until somebody ponies up a credible atmosphere - ocean - glacier mechanism that exhibits chaos of such a nature that the sensitivity of trends in its decadal statistics to initial conditions swamps the sensitivity of these statistics to the increase of greenhouse gases.

Enough people have already pointed out issues with your thinking about «decadal trends» and the data interpretation, so I won't pile on, but I think it's still worth saying a few words about the actual implications of model - obs agreement.

He has all manner of theories if you'll buy him a beer, and you can use them to fill your mind with oxymorons like «decadal trends», and that will help you ignore the science some more.

Have you computed the uncertainty level in your estimate of the «decadal trend»?

So let us look at the decadal trends for each of the decades since 1950 the decades when CO2 is supposed to have become a dominant forcing factor.

55, Alan Millar: So let us look at the decadal trends for each of the decades since 1950 the decades when CO2 is supposed to have become a dominant forcing factor.

While that is possible, the so - called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that is used to characterize decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sinceDecadal Oscillation (PDO) index that is used to characterize decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal fluctuation since 1980).

Since you don't seem to know how meaningless «decadal trends» are, you use the only data set that gives you what you want and ignore the others, and you act as though there's no uncertainty in your «trend» estimate, your level of certainty amounts to nothing more than hubris.

Because the long - term warming trends are highly significant relative to our estimates of the magnitude of natural variability, the current decadal period of stable global mean temperature does nothing to alter a fundamental conclusion from the AR4: warming has unequivocally been observed and documented.

The most important take - home point is still, though, that one should be cognizant of decadal fluctuations which could interrupt the long term trend.

No mention is made of ENSO or Pacific decadal variations that dominate interannual and decadal variability in the real world, and which are a key to understanding the recent hiatus, and recent trends that are not representative of longer - term trends, although frequently interpreted as such.

Given the decadal averages and the issue of what is meant by «the next» decade, Romm does have a point that the result of the paper could more clearly be described as representing «a period of flat global mean temperatures extending somewhat into the coming decade, following by a very rapid rise in temperature leaving the planet on its long - term trend line by 2030.»

In some models, the decadal variability for monsoons such as the South Asian monsoon also outweighs the magnitude of the future trends, and in others it does not (the review above is one example showing this).

If, for example, we were to create a piece-wise continuous trend keeping your own trend, we'd find the 0.17 C decadal warming trend from your starting point preceded by an estimated warming of equal magnitude in the combined 125 prior years (beginning at a time where only 1/4 of the present day coverage existed, thus placing the entire 125 year warming more or less within the margin of statistical insignificance).

This isn't directly comparable with Webster et al (2005) though, since their trends start in the 1970s, and the shortness of the new reanalysis (only 23 years) emphasizes interannual and decadal variability associated with e.g. El Nino.

For example the increasing trend in the coherent NHSM decadal precipitation shown in the paper (Figure S3B: the spatial pattern and associated principal component time series of the EOF) in fact suggest a weakening over recent decades in much of India and East Asia.

Everyone should consider the possibility that for some indices, North Atlantic correlations (in correlation maps) are depressed by the North Atlantic's sensitivity (being the smaller northern basin surrounded by a lot of land / ice, resulting «higher continentality»), which gives it a propensity towards high amplitude oscillations, including decadal - timescale nonlinear trends.

I don't know if there may be something to accounting for surface / ocean trends on decadal scales, but I was interested in the possibility in light of the recent «haiatus» in surface temperatures.

Let's take just one example of a paper that was vilified at the time — http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011637.shtml/quote — for suggesting that the dependence of surface temperature on ENSO and the decadal changes in ENSO character could influence decadal temperatures trends.

This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global - mean precipitation and surface fluxes).

But their analysis of smoothed observations and decadal model projections implicitly rejects the contrarian obsession with short - term trends, and points the way towards a more compelling characterization and comparative analysis of model projections and observations.

To give people an idea of what should really be expected from looking at GCM results: the AR4 model cast exhibits a range of decadal trends for 2000 - 2010 projections between about 0.0 ºC / Decade and 0.40 ºC / Decade.

Using latest months, the average temperature of 1993 - 2003 subtracted from 2003 - 2013 is 0.14 C, a fairly robust decadal trend.

Now a modelling study by researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, indicates that a decadal La Niña - like cooling trend affecting as little as 8 % of Earth's surface can explain the slower rise in global temperatures.

Additionally, the observed surface temperature changes over the past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal periods of flat temperatures during an overall long - term warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).

(The essentially flat temperature of 2000 - 2010 is real, and the trend for that decade can not be changed in 2020 by including the temperature for 2010 - 2020 unless you define decadal trend in some other way.)

We suggest that this asymmetry in response to fluctuations in the decadal warming trend likely reflects the «seepage» of contrarian memes into scientific work.

On longer time scales, the two longest time series (using independent criteria for selection, quality control, interpolation and analysis of similar data sets) show good agreement about long - term trends and also on decadal time scales.

Seems that the most recent warming trend that begins just past the max trough of the Atlantic Multi-decadal lines up with the warming of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation during two of the main multi-centenial warm surges, the first one from about 1910 - 1940 and the 2nd stronger one from about 1970 - 2000.