Sentences with phrase «decadal variability as»

The concentration on the PDO is not nearly the whole story of decadal variability as it is linked to the frequency and intensity of ENSO in the Pacific multi-decadal pattern.

Not exact matches

On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerlingdecadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and HoerlingDecadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).

It is important to note that any potential effects will be spatially and temporally variable, depending on current forest conditions, local site characteristics, environmental influences, and annual and decadal patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle, which can drive regional weather and climate conditions.

Spectral analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual mean temperature variation may be related to large - scale atmospheric — oceanic variability such as the solar activity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

«The impacts of sea level change will be felt most acutely during periods of high sea level, both from this type of interannual (and decadal) variability as well as extreme events,» Church said.

In their paper Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures, they find that the largest contributor to global average temperature variability on short (2 - 5 year) timescales in not the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Reliable data on decadal variability of the Earth's radiation budget are hard to come by, but to provide some reality check I based my setting of the scaling factor between radiative forcing and the SOI / PDOI index on the tropical data of Wielecki et al 2002 (as corrected in response to Trenberth's criticism here.)

Ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability.

She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of climate variations on decadal to century time scales.»

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

At the October 2004 SORCE meeting there was a presentation by Enric Palle (Big Bear Solar Observatory) on «Decadal Variability in the Earth's Reflectance as Observed by Earthshine».

The roughly thirty year period over which we have reliable reanalyses and satellite measurements is too short to rule out the influence of natural climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Either there's a large decadal - scale internal variability driving it, such as a large pseudo-cyclical increase in deepwater formation, or the Arctic Ocean is near marginal stability under perturbation.

No mention is made of ENSO or Pacific decadal variations that dominate interannual and decadal variability in the real world, and which are a key to understanding the recent hiatus, and recent trends that are not representative of longer - term trends, although frequently interpreted as such.

In some models, the decadal variability for monsoons such as the South Asian monsoon also outweighs the magnitude of the future trends, and in others it does not (the review above is one example showing this).

We have warm El Ninos followed by cooler La Ninas, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Julian Oscillation,... When we want to refer to them as a whole, we will call it «internal variability.»

Decadal variability has been acknowledged in many other recent publications such as...

Indeed, Curry's presentation says «ENSO doesn't just produce interannual variability, but also variability on decadal - plus timescales,» that is as MYA - ENSO.

Therefore, the projections contain little of decadal or shorter signals of variability — we're quite confident they have the global warming signal as represented by the model (except in desert regions, where one event can define the signal).

This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global - mean precipitation and surface fluxes).

Some of these episodes are based on climatology (i.e., averages over decadal timescales) as previously mentioned, so they don't allow the study of interannual variability but do give strong evidence of prevailing conditions in the longer term; this is especially true of the southern hemisphere.

Ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of northern hemisphere climate variability.

The other forecasts, such as for hurricanes, rainfall, and snow cover, are not significantly different than under natural variability, and will advance more slowly than the decadal oscillations.

The IPCC treats natural internal variability as «noise»; we argue that it is the fundamental climate signal on decadal to century time scales, with external forcing projecting onto these modes.

The stadium wave holds promise in putting into perspective numerous observations of climate behavior, such as regional patterns of decadal variability in drought and hurricane activity, the researchers say, but a complete understanding of past climate variability and projections of future climate change requires integrating the stadium - wave signal with external climate forcing from the sun, volcanoes and anthropogenic forcing.

The Earth's field sustains the magnetosphere and it is not constant either, it shows similar decadal variability, as shown in the data from and used by number of distinguished geo - magnetic scientists and researchers (Jault Gire, LeMouel, J. Bloxham, D. Gubbins, A.Jackson, R. Hide, D. Boggs, J. Dickey etc,) Since changes in either of two fields affect strength of the magnetosphere, it would be expected that the «magnetospheric variability» time function could be produced by combining two sets of available data.

As I indicated in an earlier blog, the natural variability at decadal time scales hinders the validation of any projection against observations, as these observations reflect just one possible trenAs I indicated in an earlier blog, the natural variability at decadal time scales hinders the validation of any projection against observations, as these observations reflect just one possible trenas these observations reflect just one possible trend.

Roemmich et al (2007) suggest that mid-latitude gyres in all of the oceans are influenced by decadal variability in the Southern and Northern Annular Modes (SAM and NAM respectively) as wind driven currents in baroclinic oceans (Sverdrup, 1947).

2) Reversibility of the decadal variability (which suggests natural variability) such as an absence of volcanic perturbation eg Joshi and Shine 2003 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C3525%3AAGSOVE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

The time series is as well nonstaionary with decadal to millennial variability.

They write in their abstract: «The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, is a widely used index for decadal variability.

Ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of NH climate variability.

In a recent paper, Sanchez - Franks and Zhang show that the underlying physical driver for the decadal variability in the Gulf Stream path and the regional biogeochemical cycling is linked to the low - frequency variability of the large - scale ocean circulation in the Atlantic, also known as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

As we have seen, internal variability in this system can lead to decadal variability in GMSL that serves to enhance or suppress the underlying long - term trends.

There is peer reviewed science that suggests — as a result of Pacific variability especially — that the world is not warming over the next 10 years (Mochizuki et al 2010, Swanson et al 2009, Tsonis et al 2007, Keenlyside et al 2008)-- albeit with immense uncertainties surrounding the origins and limits of decadal variability.

Additional proxy records that cover the entire CE are needed to investigate decadal - to centennial - scale responses of climate to changes in radiative forcing as well as internal variability at these time scales.

As the authors state, these fluxes reflect fundamental characteristics of the climate system and have been well measured by satellite instrumentation in the recent past — although (multi) decadal internal variability in them could be a confounding factor.

Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions simulations.

And as these decadal variabilities seque into cenntennial modes in the onset of Bond Event Zero — say farewell to the balmy days and nights heady with the scents of tropical flowers hanging in the languid air.

The model is actually based on ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — and can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability.

Variability of the El Niño / La Niña cycle, described as a Pacific Decadal Oscillation, largely accounts for the temporary decrease of warming [18], as we discuss further below in conjunction with global temperature simulations.

Over the past 60 years, Alaska has warmed more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the United States, with state - wide average annual air temperature increasing by 3 °F and average winter temperature by 6 °F, with substantial year - to - year and regional variability.1 Most of the warming occurred around 1976 during a shift in a long - lived climate pattern (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]-RRB- from a cooler pattern to a warmer one.

As where Marcott et al went wrong as climate scientists, when they used paleoclimate data of long millenia time scales in natural variability, with the short decadal time scale (weather) in natural variability and claim to predict the future of where the pendulum of climatology will be in the future, when actually showing that they are confused, what they are representing as evidence of the future climate is in fact their total misunderstanding of climatology and the complex chaotic circumstances that influence the real worlAs where Marcott et al went wrong as climate scientists, when they used paleoclimate data of long millenia time scales in natural variability, with the short decadal time scale (weather) in natural variability and claim to predict the future of where the pendulum of climatology will be in the future, when actually showing that they are confused, what they are representing as evidence of the future climate is in fact their total misunderstanding of climatology and the complex chaotic circumstances that influence the real worlas climate scientists, when they used paleoclimate data of long millenia time scales in natural variability, with the short decadal time scale (weather) in natural variability and claim to predict the future of where the pendulum of climatology will be in the future, when actually showing that they are confused, what they are representing as evidence of the future climate is in fact their total misunderstanding of climatology and the complex chaotic circumstances that influence the real worlas evidence of the future climate is in fact their total misunderstanding of climatology and the complex chaotic circumstances that influence the real world.

* These decadal episodes of variability appear greater in the past than in modern times as can be seen in the sharp drops, then recovery, during the LIA episodes.

US CLIVAR is using coupled climate models to extract as much information as possible from the scarce datasets to further understand the mechanisms leading to decadal variability and the degree to which such variability can be predicted.

Unforced variability of global temperature is great, as shown in Figure 4, but the global temperature trend on decadal and longer time scales is now determined by the larger human - made climate forcing.

You can see that the natural variability on decadal scales is + / -0.1 C, and this accounts for what we see as perturbations around the background warming.

* These decadal episodes of variability are no more pronounced in the present than they were in the past - indeed the volatility appears greater in the past as can be seen in the sharp drops, then recovery, during the LIA episodes.

What was done, was to take a large number of models that could not reasonably simulate known patterns of natural behaviour (such as ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), claim that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate variability, and use the fact that these models could not replicate the warming episode from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, to argue that forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.

Fortunately, climate science is rapidly developing the tools to meet this challenge, as in the near future it will be possible to attribute cause and effect in decadal - scale climate variability within the context of a seamless climate forecast system [Palmer et al., 2008].