Sentences with phrase «decadal warming forced»

In addition, the decadal warming forced by human - caused climate change is thawing ever greater portions of permafrost, which also adds near surface fuels to traditional brush and woodlands fires.

Not exact matches

Ice - sheet responses to decadal - scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long - term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.»

Northeast Pacific coastal warming since 1900 is often ascribed to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, whereas multidecadal temperature changes are widely interpreted in the framework of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which responds to regional atmospheric dynamics.

We do know that ocean basins produce this oscillatory behavior — the El Nino / Southern Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscialltion, the NAO, the Madden - Julian Oscillation (Indian Ocean), but they seem to have a bit of a random component, their forcing mechanisms are poorly understood, their «phase changes» appear impossible to predict very far in advance, and they must also be sensitive to the overall climate warming.

Sorry paper gets a bit fat ZERO due this statement (below) obviously forced on anyone trying to get something worthwhile published in that garbage Journal NATURE «though similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.»

There is no reason to expect that the climate system forced with continuing increases in greenhouse gases will always show warming with greater than 90 % confidence over decadal periods.

The IPCC states that prior to 1950 any global warming was due to natural forces - thus, the +0.41 °C decadal increase during the early 20th century was due entirely to natural climate forces.

The IPCC states that the modern warming decadal warming, +0.55 °C, was at least 50 % caused by humans - thus, it is highly likely that natural climate forces were responsible for the other 50 %, say a +0.27 °C of the modern warming.

In this article, we look at the moving decadal spans since January 1, 1950 through August 2013 (the IPCC states that at least 50 % of the warming is due to anthropogenic reasons over this 764 - month period) versus the previous 764 - month period (May 1, 1886 through December 1949) that the IPCC infers was dominated by natural climate forces.

«Because of the pronounced effect of interannual noise on decadal trends, a multi-model ensemble of anthropogenically - forced simulations displays many 10 - year periods with little warming.

Now forced to explain the warming hiatus, Trenberth has flipped flopped about the PDO's importance writing «One of the things emerging from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural variability, on several time scales,» «especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by climate models, and the longer term Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which have cycle lengths of about 60 years.»

What was done, was to take a large number of models that could not reasonably simulate known patterns of natural behaviour (such as ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), claim that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate variability, and use the fact that these models could not replicate the warming episode from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, to argue that forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.

The conclusion — taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal - average global temperature between 1871 - 80 and 2002 - 11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake — is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6 ° -1.7 °C (2.9 ° -3.1 °F).