What would
the decadal warming rate be if you made all adjustments from the baseline, as one would insist on say, in a retail setting if one was getting multiple discounts off of a ticket price?
So what's the residual
decadal warming rate shown on your graph — which we have assumed is all carbon dioxide?
Calculating
a decadal warming rate across this big step is true, but very misleading.
This inaccuracy is significant, when we consider that we are looking at peak
decadal warming rates of around 0.16 °C / decade.
Not exact matches
These phases, which last 30 years, giving a 60 - year cycle, must be carefully allowed for: otherwise the error made by many early models would arise: they based their predictions on the
warming rate from 1976 - 2001, a period wholly within a
warming phase of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.
«Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to
Decadal Changes in the
Rate of Global
Warming.»
The models exhibit large variations in the
rate of
warming from year to year and over a decade, owing to climate variations such as ENSO, the Atlantic Multi-
Decadal Oscillation and Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.
Natural variability plays a large role in the
rate of global mean surface
warming on
decadal time scales.
If only half of the modern
decadal warming is due to human influences, then it is also likely that the human - caused linear trend would represent a
warming rate of only +0.89 °C, half the modern 3 - decade full - linear trend
rate of 1.78 °C / century.
According to the researchers, natural variability plays a large role in the
rate of global mean surface
warming on
decadal time scales.
If you average the 2 most recent period of
decadal variation — the residual
rate of
warming is 0.07 degrees C / decade.
«stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the
decadal rate of surface
warming during the 1990s by about 30 % as compared to estimates neglecting this change.
Solomon, S. Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to
decadal changes in the
rate of global
warming.
The
decadal rate (2000's minus 1990's) is near 0.15 C per decade despite the flat plateau, which is due to a
warm early 2000's period, and possibly the long solar minimum at the end.
Comparing the last two
decadal trends shown above, what is your conclusion regarding the
warming rates?
In both 2015 and 2016 we had increase in CO2 and Average Worldwide Temperature at the
DECADAL rate for the 20th century, that's twenty years of
warming in two years.
Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such
decadal differences in simulated and observed
warming rates invariably occur.
I hope that we may well be nearing the brink of having within humanity's grasp, not only strong inferences about the recent, relative
decadal reduction in the
rate of surface
warming (compared with the final quarter of Century 20), but also with a more compelling story about the true pause which stretched across the middle of that century.
Susan Solomon, Karen Rosenlof, Robert Portmann, John Daniel, Sean Davis, Todd Sanford, Gian - Kasper Plattner, Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to
Decadal Changes in the
Rate of Global
Warming, Science, Published Online January 28, 2010
Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to
decadal changes in the
rate of global
warming.
During the workshop, ocean and climate scientists reviewed the state of the science of
decadal climate variability and its relationship to
rates of human - caused global
warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps.