A study in 2015, for instance, predicted that the Earth is about to undergo a major climatic shift that could mean
decades of cooler temperatures and fewer hurricanes hitting the U.S.
A new study out of the United Kingdom predicts the Earth is about to go through a major climatic shift that could mean
decades of cooler temperatures and fewer hurricanes hitting the United States.
If the new forecast of
a decade of cooler temperatures in North America and Europe pans out, it will pose a substantial challenge to climate campaigners, politicians, and citizens: Can they produce meaningful action to limit the long - term warming that scientists still say is clearly ahead under a building greenhouse blanket even when it's cooling outside?
Not exact matches
In contrast, in
decades of coolest sea surface
temperature, swifter winds extract more heat from the western and central Atlantic before arriving in Europe.
The study also provides new evidence for just how sensitive glaciers are to
temperature, showing that they responded to past abrupt
cooling and warming periods, some
of which might have lasted only
decades.
Over a
decade the trend is
cooling temperatures in the northern parts
of Eurasia.
As Earth heats up the
cool alpine
temperatures, plant species have begun a slow - motion diaspora to escape, relocating upward an average
of 29 meters per
decade.
«The mounting evidence is coalescing around the idea that
decades of stronger trade winds coincide with
decades of stalls or even slight
cooling of global surface
temperatures, as heat is apparently transferred from the atmosphere into the upper ocean,» Linsley said.
Like Foster and Rahmstorf, Lean and Rind (2008) performed a multiple linear regression on the
temperature data, and found that while solar activity can account for about 11 %
of the global warming from 1889 to 2006, it can only account for 1.6 %
of the warming from 1955 to 2005, and had a slight
cooling effect -LRB--0.004 °C per
decade) from 1979 to 2005.
They found that ENSO, as measured through the the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), had a slight
cooling effect
of about -0.014 to -0.023 °C per
decade in the surface and lower troposphere
temperatures, respectively from 1979 through 2010 (Table 1, Figure 4).
This animation shows how the same
temperature data (green) that is used to determine the long - term global surface air warming trend
of 0.16 °C per
decade (red) can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time periods that show a
cooling trend simply because the endpoints are carefully chosen and the trend is dominated by short - term noise in the data (blue steps).
Ocean
temperatures experience interannual variability and over the past 3
decades of global warming have had several short periods
of cooling.
In recent times, climate skeptics have been peddling a lot
of nonsense about average
temperatures actually
cooling over the last
decade.
has been the recommendation for
decades, not just in hot weather, where the loss
of fluid is great, but during long events with
cool or even cold
temperatures.
There are several types
of moss commonly found on the market: I carry basic whole moss (a standard
of horticulture decor for
decades), frog moss, which can come back to full life when hydrated and can flourish given slowly dripping water and
cooler temperatures, and my favorite, New Zealand sphagnum moss.
He comments that «if
temperature changes are purely random and unpredictable, the chance
of a
cooling decade would be 50 %, since an increase and a decrease in
temperatures are equally likely».
Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere over short - term
cool and hot spells in relation to global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent
decades - long graph
of global
temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short - term up - and - down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño — Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.
In regards to Michael Jankowski's comment (# 11), the Fu et al. (2004, Nature) article showed that the satellite record
of tropospheric
temperature trends, based on the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 2, is contaminated by stratospheric
cooling on the order
of -0.08 K /
decade.
«We show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods
of a
decade or two where the globally averaged surface air
temperature shows no trend or even slight
cooling in the presence
of longer - term warming,» the paper says, adding that, «It is easy to «cherry pick» a period to reinforce a point
of view.»
Of course, in the real world, the 1880's where exceptionaly cold, peak 20th century warmth was in the 1990's (which in turn were cooler than the first decade of the 21st century), and the 1970's and following decades were characterised by an ongoing rise in temperature
Of course, in the real world, the 1880's where exceptionaly cold, peak 20th century warmth was in the 1990's (which in turn were
cooler than the first
decade of the 21st century), and the 1970's and following decades were characterised by an ongoing rise in temperature
of the 21st century), and the 1970's and following
decades were characterised by an ongoing rise in
temperatures.
The hiatus
decades were chosen based on a slight
cooling trend in global surface
temperatures of less than -0.08 °C per
decade.
Furthermore, if aerosols did have such a dramatic cancelling effect at the onset
of WWII and during the following
decades, is aerosol
cooling part
of the
temperature models?
If you look e.g. at the
temperature of the last few
decades, the clearest signals are the response to the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions in 1983/4 and 1992/94, respectively (
cooling) and the El Nino in 1998 (warming).
While the aerosol influence last less than a
decade, the influence on surface
temperatures continues because
of the slow mixing
of cooled waters on the ocean surface.
«What's the News: Climate change may have sparked the demise
of early Viking settlements in Greenland, according to a new study published online in the Proceedings
of the National Academy
of Sciences, when
temperatures cooled rapidly over several
decades.
They also discuss some indications
of higher aerosol
cooling in the last
decade, considered as a potential influence (although not dominant) in 21st century
temperatures.
The Arctic has had warmer
temperatures many
decades ago, and it also experiences rapid warming and
cooling of the order
of 3 to 4 degrees in a short time.
Did the HadCUT3
temperature record show a net
cooling trend over the first
decade of the 21st century
of around 0.06 C per
decade?
Frankly with all
of these effects acting in the
cooling direction, it's amazing that surface
temperatures continued to warm over the past
decade, but they did.
If only GHG forcing is used, without aerosols, the surface
temperature in the last
decade or so is about 0.3 - 0.4 C higher than observations; adding in aerosols has a
cooling effect
of about 0.3 - 0.4 C (and so cancelling out a portion
of the GHG warming), providing a fairly good match between the climate model simulations and the observations.
Although 2008 was the
coolest year
of the
decade, due to strong
cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2009 saw a return to near - record global
temperatures.
Yet last week in Geneva, at the UN's World Climate Conference — an annual gathering
of the so - called «scientific consensus» on man - made climate change — Prof. Latif conceded the Earth has not warmed for nearly a
decade and that we are likely entering «one or even two
decades during which
temperatures cool.»
Warmest
decades of the Medieval Warm Period, and
coolest decades of the Little Ice Age, after re-centering each reconstruction to match the instrumental
temperature record during the period
of overlap.
If Northern Hemisphere
temperatures have been in an overall
cooling trend for two millennia due to «orbital forcing» (i.e. reduced solar irradiance), then the burden
of proof becomes greater on those who attribute the warmth
of recent
decades to solar variability rather than rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
This line
of argument is unpersuasive for two important reasons: First, the admittedly less reliable ground - based mercury
temperature readings from the mid-1940s through the late 1970s reported global
cooling during the three
decades immediately prior to the satellite era.
In this new paper they write: «The most striking features in the reconstruction are the warm
temperatures from ∼ 1050 to ∼ 1300 AD compared to the preceding and following centuries, the persistent
cooler temperatures from ∼ 1400 to ∼ 1800 AD, and the subsequent rise to warmer
temperatures which eventually seem to exceed in the last
decades of the 20th century the range
of past variation.
During the last big abrupt
cooling, 12,900 years ago, Europe
cooled down to Siberian
temperatures within a
decade (about ten-fold greater than in the Little Ice Age), the rainfall likely dropped by half, and fierce winter storms whipped a lot
of dust into the atmosphere.
«And then you see right away it may well happen that you enter a
decade or maybe even two, when the
temperature cools relative to the present level... I'm definitely not one
of the skeptics... However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves, or some other people will do it.»
but that ENSO can still cause natural
cooling for periods
of a
decade or more so that even though the man - made influence continues to cause warming, it is cancelled by ENSO
cooling and results in a «hiatus»
of global
temperature increase:»
More than a
decade ago I published a peer - reviewed paper that showed the UK's Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM) could not model climate and only obtained agreement between past average global
temperature and the model's indications
of average global
temperature by forcing the agreement with an input
of assumed anthropogenic aerosol
cooling.
As you can see, over periods
of a few
decades, modeled internal variability does not cause surface
temperatures to change by more than 0.3 °C, and over longer periods, such as the entire 20th Century, its transient warming and
cooling influences tend to average out, and internal variability does not cause long - term
temperature trends.
Though getting to the peak 1998
temperature within 50 year do not * require * much warming in the next 10 years, a couple
decades of cooling could even result in peaking to this level in within 50 years.
The 25 D - O events during the last glacial, where
temperatures rose and fell by 5 to 10 degrees C (10 - 15 degrees C for Greenland) within a span
of decades that were «explained by internal variability
of the climate system alone ``, deemed global in scale, and they occurred without any changes in CO2 concentrations, which stayed steady at about 180 ppm throughout the warming and
cooling.
If the
decade 1990 - 2000 saw warming
of - say -.5 C and the
decade 2000 - 2009 saw
cooling of - say -.1 C, then the latter
decade would be warmer on average than the former, even though the ending
temperature was.1 C lower than the start.
The pattern
of warming that we have observed, in which warming has occurred in the lower portions
of the atmosphere (the troposphere) and
cooling has occurred at higher levels (the stratosphere), is consistent with how greenhouse gases work — and inconsistent with other factors that can affect the global
temperature over many
decades, like changes in the sun's energy.
The Western Antarctic Peninsula's surface air
temperatures have been
cooling rapidly since 1999 («a
cooling trend
of − 0.47 °C /
decade during 1999 — 2014» [Oliva et al., 2017]-RRB-.
The background at any one time only contributed 0.02 c and this value is far two small to explain the
cooling between the 1940's and 1970's plus the pausing
of recent
decade global
temperatures.
Prior to that, climate scientists admit, global
temperatures had been stable or dropping for
decades, a fact that prompted previous generations
of climate alarmists to sound the alarm about the supposed dangers
of man - made «global
cooling.»
Those previously beneficial rising
temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during the 1930s were followed by about three
decades of cooling which began in the 1940s.
Anyway with El Niño fading away and possibly a new El Nina with other natural cooing factors coming in to play there is a good chance
of another
decade or more
of «Pausing» or
cooling in global
temperatures which is itself a stupid concept as it
cools and heats in different places
of the planet dependent on the local climate conditions an average is meaningless — you really need to dream up some more dire alarmist nonsense to keep your show on the road.