Then came Watts's new paper, which — as with his earlier efforts — is focused on questioning the quality of
decades of temperature records generated by weather stations across the lower 48 states.
And, of course, to get to even the 2030 assumption, we had to posit 2
decades of temperature records drawn from Marc Morano's dreams.
Curious about these numbers, I looked more into the past
decade of temperature records, and also spoke with Climate Central's staff scientists.
Not exact matches
The
decade we've just come through was the warmest on
record in human history: it saw
record incidence
of floods and drought (both
of which you'd expect with higher
temperatures).
The most important
of these was an apparent mismatch between the instrumental surface
temperature record (which showed significant warming over recent
decades, consistent with a human impact) and the balloon and satellite atmospheric
records (which showed little
of the expected warming).
The last
decade has been one
of the warmest on
record for the polar region, with 2007 summer
temperatures having risen 9 degrees Fahrenheit above average in some areas.
By Victoria Cavaliere and Brendan O'Brien NEW YORK / MILWAUKEE (Reuters)- A deadly blast
of arctic air shattered
decades - old
temperature records as it enveloped the eastern United States on Tuesday, snarling air, road and rail travel, driving energy prices higher and overwhelming shelters for homeless people.
In the past
decade, paleoclimatologists have reconstructed a
record of climate change over the last millennium by consulting historical documents and examining indicators
of temperature change like tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in ice cores and coral skeletons.
With Earth's
temperature climbing in concert with rising emissions
of carbon dioxide (and eight
of the hottest years on
record occurring in the last
decade), we appear to have begun a vast, unplanned experiment with our planetary home.
The confused argument hinges on one data set — the HadCRUT 3V — which is only one
of several estimates, and it is the global
temperature record that exhibits the least change over the last
decade.
A number
of recent studies indicate that effects
of urbanisation and land use change on the land - based
temperature record are negligible (0.006 ºC per
decade) as far as hemispheric - and continental - scale averages are concerned because the very real but local effects are avoided or accounted for in the data sets used.
«Many paleorecords
record global
temperature rises
of 5 to 6 degrees Celsius in a
decade or two, and I give some examples.
The
record - setting
temperatures of 2016 have seen a small push from an exceptionally strong El Niño, but they are largely the result
of the heat that has built up in the atmosphere over
decades of unabated greenhouse gas emissions — as the spiral graphic makes clear.
The concatenation
of modern and instrumental
records [52] is based on an estimate that global
temperature in the first
decade of the 21st century (+0.8 °C relative to 1880 — 1920) exceeded the Holocene mean by 0.25 ± 0.25 °C.
The Central England
Temperature record covers 34
decades, from the end
of the first
decade in 1679.
internal / natural variability over a long enough timeframe will not alter the long term trend
of the
temperature record (as we are always reminded) but in this relatively short term analysis it did especially for the last
decade
In the video clip Malcolm Roberts is saying that there is a period at the end
of the 1600s / beginning
of the 1700s in the CET
record when there was a
temperatures rise greater and faster than any rise in recent
decades.
# 46 ZH I am merely pointing out that your commentary on the
temperature record points out that 2010 is not significantly warmer and is not an unamgiguous new
record in the last
decade, whereas the Foster and Rahmstorf while admitting their analysis shows «no sign
of a change in the warming rate during the period
of common coverage»
If one plots the
records from GISS, HADCru, RSS and UAH; GISS is the outlier, and three
of the four primary global
temperature measuring systems show a decrease over the most recent six years and a downward trend over the past
decade; not that this establishes a significant trend yet.
In regards to Michael Jankowski's comment (# 11), the Fu et al. (2004, Nature) article showed that the satellite
record of tropospheric
temperature trends, based on the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 2, is contaminated by stratospheric cooling on the order
of -0.08 K /
decade.
We therefore repeated the calculation excluding this data point, using the 1910 — 2009 data instead, to see whether the
temperature data prior to 2010 provide a reason to anticipate a new heat
record.With a thus revised nonlinear trend, the expected number
of heat
records in the last
decade reduces to 0.47, which implies a 78 % probability -LSB-(0.47 − 0.105) ∕ 0.47] that a new Moscow
record is due to the warming trend.
• The «hockey stick»
record of temperature change remains valid despite an intense,
decade - long critical assault.
The key points
of the paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air
temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes
of ocean heat content over the last
decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount
of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating «in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.
While global
temperatures rose by about one - fifth
of a degree Fahrenheit per
decade from the 1950s through 1990s, warming slowed to just half that rate after the
record hot year
of 1998.
This comes at the end
of the warmest
decade of global average
temperature on
record.
We still don't expect each year to be warmer than the last due to the intrinsic variability («weather») in global mean
temperature (around 0.1 to 0.2 °C), but at the current rate
of global warming (~ 0.17 °C /
decade), new
records can be expected relatively frequently.
Climate scientists don't know where and when
temperature and precipitation
records will be broken, but they are confident that the next
decade and especially century will have more
records of all kinds broken than the last
decade and century.
For July
temperature in Moscow, we estimate that the local warming trend has increased the number
of records expected in the past
decade fivefold, which implies an approximate 80 % probability that the 2010 July heat
record would not have occurred without climate warming.
Research to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters shows that over the past
decade the number
of record hot days has been double the number
of record cold days: The research was carried out by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate Central, The Weather Channel, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and examined
temperature records going back to the 1950s.
Given that 1985 was the last year with
temperatures below the 20th century average, and 2000 - 2010 was the hottest
decade on
record, it has become impossible to say for certain that any given storm is free from the influence
of our warmed world.
And at last they have found a new one: they suggest that the difference in the
temperature increase over land and the oceans during the last
decades might be due to contaminations
of the land
temperature record — They call it an anomalous behaviour — ignoring that it corresponds fully to what is physically expected.
High - frequency associations (not shown here) remain strong throughout the whole
record, but average density levels have continuously fallen while
temperatures in recent
decades have risen... As yet, the reason is not known, but analyses
of time - dependent regional comparisons suggest that it is associated with a tendency towards loss
of «spring» growth response (Briffa et al., 1 999b) and, at least for subarctic Siberia, it may be connected with changes in the timing
of spring snowmelt (Vaganov et al., 1999).
However, such statement flies - in - the - face
of temperature recordings: the last
decade (2000 - 2009) was the warmest yet on
record.
In 2005, during the hottest average
decade on
record, 8 low - wind conditions known as «the doldrums» combined with very high ocean
temperatures to cause massive coral bleaching in the Virgin Islands.9 This was followed by a particularly severe outbreak
of at least five coral diseases in the Virgin Islands, resulting in a decline in coral cover
of about 60 percent.9 There is some indication that higher ocean
temperatures — between 86 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit (30 to 35 degrees Celsius)-- promote optimal growth
of several coral pathogens.9 Other research showed that elkhorn coral post-bleaching had larger disease lesions than unbleached specimens, suggesting that bleaching may increase the corals» susceptibility to disease.9, 10
Neither
of them adequately explain the step - change in the
temperature record of the last
decade that is apparent in both analyses.
And, when it comes to weather
records, they should be roughly balanced between hot and cold weather
records — with human - driven climate change, high
temperature records (including high lowest
temperature) are blowing past cold
records to the order
of 10 - 1 globally
decade to
decade.
You continued, «Neither
of them adequately explain the step - change in the
temperature record of the last
decade that is apparent in both analyses.
The total warming they
record is 1.13 deg C, so 0.5 deg C (0.1 deg C per
decade times ten
decades) would be about 44 %
of the total
recorded temperature increase.
Did the HadCUT3
temperature record show a net cooling trend over the first
decade of the 21st century
of around 0.06 C per
decade?
Table 1: Trends in °C /
decade of the signal components due to MEI, AOD and TSI in the regression
of global
temperature, for each
of the five
temperature records from 1979 to 2010.
In other words: by breaking
of temperature records and melting
of ice, climate change has shown itself — but over the last
decade or so not to the extent that it «should» have.
In recent
decades, a number
of groups have tried combining sets
of these proxy
records together to construct long - term estimates
of global
temperature change over the last millennium or so.
In fact, Marohasy points out that a lack
of rising
temperatures for recent
decades is so common in paleoclimate reconstructions that tendentious climate scientists have necessarily added heavily adjusted, hockey - stick - shaped instrumental
records (e.g., from NASA GISS, HadCRUT) on to the end
of the trend so as to maintain the visualization
of an ongoing dangerous warming.
Eight out
of the 10 warmest years in India were during the recent past
decade (2001 - 2010), making it the warmest
decade on
record with a decadal mean
temperature anomaly
of 0.49 °C.
A problem with airports is that they are often in urban or suburban locations that have been built up in the past few
decades, and the increase in global air travel has led to increased traffic, pavement, buildings and waste heat, all
of which are difficult to remove from the
temperature record.
But the IPCC said the longer term trends were clear: «Each
of the last three
decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding
decade since 1850 in the northern hemisphere [the earliest date for reliable
temperature records for the whole hemisphere].»
Throughout the last three
decades, the GISS surface
temperature record shows an upward trend
of about 0.2 °C (0.36 °F) per
decade.
Although 2008 was the coolest year
of the
decade, due to strong cooling
of the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2009 saw a return to near -
record global
temperatures.
February 2015 had some
of the coldest
temperatures seen in
decades, tying the year 1904 as the 7th coldest February on
record (1895 - 2015) for the Midwestern Region.
In the light
of the satellite
record, as well as the absence
of any systematic change in global
temperature for almost two
decades, the proclaimed interpretation
of this summer should be recognised for what it is: a simplistic explanation
of a complex physical system.