Professor French's database includes monthly data, quintile data,
decile data and much more detail.]
It is true that these paper report only continuous analysis and do not report the RR per decile, but it is reasonable to assume that the researchers did look at the per
decile data, but didn't find something interesting in this data.
Indeed, Green - span's speech at Jackson Hole relied mainly on
decile data.
Not exact matches
To show what's going on, we broke the S&P 500 components into price / revenue
deciles, presented in the chart below (thanks to our resident mathematician Russell Jackson for pulling the
data together).
Download the 2017 - 18
Decile Ranks Spreadsheet here (CDE
data file as of 9/26/17) Download the 2017 - 18 Full Accountability Spreadsheet here (CDE
data file as of 9/26/17)
The first graph below, in which each
data point relates the average socioeconomic index score for a
decile of a particular OECD country's students to that
decile's average performance on PISA's math test, depicts this relationship.
However, you analyzed the
data in
deciles.
Now using Morningstar
data for the trailing three years at the end of the first quarter, six Federated funds were in the top
decile, 10 were in the top quartile, and a dozen were in the top half.
That is, on January 1st of each year (putting aside the fact that the market's closed on New Year's Day), you are «looking back» into lagging fundamental valuation
data of the prior year to sort «All stocks» into updated
deciles, and then going long on about 60 or about 120 of the stocks in the «value
decile» (i.e., the bottom 10 % of All stocks that have the lowest EM).
This chart shows the yearly returns to each of the value and glamour
deciles, the value premium (value - glamour) in each year, and the rolling average from the start of the
data in 1926:
So what we need is historical
data for s & p
decile performance going back to when Buffett started (or Klarman), and then compare the total returns for «pure contrarian» with the returns of an established value practitioner.