The value premium is the outperformance of the value
decile over the glamour decile.
Folks who saw last week's post might note the small advantage for the cashflow yield's value
decile over the earnings yield's value decile, 20.7 percent versus 20.1 percent.
The chart below shows the median drawdown among stocks in
each decile over the subsequent 30 months.
Not exact matches
From their 1999 levels, all of those
deciles lost more than one - third of their value
over the following 30 - months, with the losses in most groups approaching -50 %.
For example, grocers almost always stay in the very low price / revenue
deciles because they operate in a low - margin business, yet fluctuations in their price / revenue ratios
over time are still very informative about subsequent returns.
Wes et al have set up an experiment comparing the performance of the stocks selected by the investors on the VIC — arguably the best 250 special situation investors in the US — and the top
decile of stocks selected by the Magic Formula
over the period March 1, 2000 through to the end of last year.
James Dondero, NexPoint President and Portfolio Manager to the Fund, stated, «We are pleased with the material
over subscription and investor support consistent with top
decile performance we... Read More... Read More
The following chart shows that the best
decile of stocks based on the value composite have underperformed the average investment by
over -11 %
over the last twelve months.
To offer some insight on prospective losses
over the completion of the market cycle, the following chart examines the S&P 500 stocks, and shows the median drawdown (loss to lowest point) of stocks within each valuation
decile.
We settled for almost $ 3 billion
over the next seven years, and all that money is going to
decile one and
decile two schools, which will really help.
As a result, schools in the smallest
decile were much more likely to be among the top 25 schools at some point
over the period: Even though their mean gains were not statistically different, the smallest schools were 23 times more likely to win a top - 25 award than the largest schools.
Here we use Ken French's P / B value
decile and compare the returns to the S&P 500
over the same period.
Most academic studies of market capitalization sort stocks by
deciles (10 percent) and review how an investment in each fares
over time.
This 5.2 % yield spread is well into the top
decile of the historical range and well
over the historical average of 3.9 %.
They each year in January sort hedge funds into tenths (
deciles) based on fund manager fWHR and then measure the performance of these
decile portfolios
over the following year.
Those value
decile results are based on a rolling 1 - year hold period, not a 10 - 15 year holding period (
over which value and any other factor dies out...)
Indeed, amongst US equity mutual funds, only the lowest fee
decile garnered positive net flows
over the course of 2016, with all other
deciles experiencing net outflows.
Also, as starting Shiller P / E's go up, worst cases get worse and best cases get weaker (best cases remain OK from any
decile, so there is generally hope even if it should not triumph
over experience!).
We analyze the compound annual growth rates of each price ratio
over the 1964 to 2011 period for market capitalization — weighted
decile portfolios.
Smith, who volunteered for Benjamin Graham at UCLA, concentrates on the bottom
decile of price to tangible book stocks and has compounded at 15.3 %
over 30 years:
For example, mutual funds ranked in the lowest
decile based on past performance (among the universe of funds in the same style category
over the prior 36 months), are approximately two and a half times more likely to be deleted from those menus on which they are unaffiliated with the trustee than from those where they are affiliated with the trustee.
Assuming that its convenient, would you be able to post what the % return is
over the 1951 - 2013 period, if we traded on the lowest quarter of the value
decile (i.e., about 30 stocks)?
Over the long run, the value
decile will outperform the glamour
decile.
Again, though the value
decile outperformed by a wide margin
over the full period, it only beat the Russell 2000 index in 3 out of 7 years, less than half the time.
Here we find that the value
decile generate 17.8 percent per year compound, outperforming the index by 5.6 percent per year compound
over the full period (and by 7.5 percent on average).
Over the same period the glamour
decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent.
Though the value
decile outperformed
over the full period, it only outperformed the market in 3 out of 7 years, which means that the value
decile underperformed the Russell 3000 more than half the time.
Even if the smallest of the microcap stocks capture the greatest returns
over time, I would like to think there are some somewhat larger, investable securities in the lower P / TBV
deciles...
The chart shows that all the value
deciles have comprehensively outperformed each of the indexes
over the full period since 2008.
The Hedge at 2SD, Lever at Mean strategy outperforms the buy - and - hold strategy
over the full period, returning 21.9 percent compound, versus 20 percent for the value
decile.
The value
decile returned 19.8 percent compound
over the full period, beating its corresponding index by 7.0 percent per year compound (and by 10.7 percent on average).
The No Div
decile, which returned a CAGR of 13.4 percent and an AAR of 21.2 percent
over the full period (and, since 1951, a CAGR of 12.4 percent and an AAR or 18.3 percent), beat out the return on the value
decile.
The value
decile generated 16.2 percent compound
over the full period, beating the Russell 2000 by 4.5 percent per year (or 6.2 percent in the average year).
Still, you were better off in the value
decile by a wide margin
over the full period.
While it may seem like an extra percentage point between friends is marginal, the 113bp average annual difference between the highest - yielding
decile and the seventh - highest yielding
decile is 2.5 x your money
over this ultra-long sample period.
First, the relationship between high and low BM
deciles is relatively unchanged
over time.
Average returns for each
decile were calculated on a monthly basis
over five different time periods:
It is only
over the last 10 years that the monthly returns for the lowest BM
decile have been negative.
Second, the returns to all
deciles have attenuated significantly
over time.
Lapthorne finds that
over the course of this century the stocks with the lowest asset growth (those in the bottom
decile) have delivered nearly twice the average annual return of those with the highest asset growth (those in the top
decile).
Simmonds and Keay (2002) obtained similar results for the change in the number of cyclones in the
decile for deepest cyclones averaged
over the North Pacifi c and
over the North Atlantic in winter
over the period 1958 to 1997.
We considered the child to have potential for «behaviour problems» if the SDQ score was in the extreme 10 % of the distribution of scores
over the whole MCS cohort at ages 3, 5 and 7 years [29], i.e. the top
decile for the total difficulties scale (17 +, 14 +, 15 +) and the bottom
decile for the prosocial scale (< = 5, < = 6, < = 6) respectively.