The period of strongly positive Arctic Oscillation during 1989 - 1995 and the loss of multi-year ice set the stage for the large
decline in sea ice extent in the past decade.
JC says «There are three main theories for the recent
decline in sea ice extent and volume,» gives the three, but gives no program for testing which theory is true.
Lukovich and Barber; 4.6 million square kilometers; Heuristic The absence of a distinctive transition in spring of 2009, between cyclonic and anti-cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere (characteristic of years with record lows in sea ice extent), suggests that dynamical contributions will contribute to but not accelerate
the decline in sea ice extent in September 2009.
«There is no doubt that Arctic sea ice extent is trending downwards, with much of that multi-decadal
decline in sea ice extent being due to human - induced climate change,» Hoerling told BuzzFeed News by email.
Ice divergence has spread the ice out, slowing
the decline in sea ice extent during the first two weeks of July.
Not exact matches
«This shift is characterized by the persistent
decline in the thickness and summer
extent of
sea -
ice cover and by a warmer, l
Although researchers have been generally successful at modelling the huge
declines in Arctic
sea ice, the
extent of Antarctic
sea ice has actually increased
in recent years, contrary to the predictions of models.
Through satellite images, researchers have observed a steep
decline in the average
extent of Arctic
sea ice for every month of the year.
Observed decreases
in arctic
sea ice extent have been shown to be inconsistent with simulated internal variability, and consistent with the simulated response to human influence, but SH
sea ice extent has not
declined.
The presently low maximum
sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas is unique over the last 800 years, and results from a sea ice decline started in late - nineteenth century after the Little Ice Age.&raq
ice extent in the Western Nordic
Seas is unique over the last 800 years, and results from a
sea ice decline started in late - nineteenth century after the Little Ice Age.&raq
ice decline started
in late - nineteenth century after the Little
Ice Age.&raq
Ice Age.»
Although there is still definitely a
declining trend
in Arctic
sea ice (2009 and 2008 were still the second and third lowest
sea ice extents, after 2007) there was a lot of hype surrounding the 2007 minimum even though that was partly just natural variability
in the Arctic climate.
In the past three decades, the
sea ice September
extent has
declined 40 %.
eg Graham explained that these warming events are related to the
decline of winter
sea ice in the Arctic, noting that January's
ice extent was the lowest on record.
A recent paper by Francis & Hunter provides an interesting discussion about reasons for the recent
decline in the Arctic
sea -
ice extent, based on new satellite observations.
Intuitively, one would think that model the underestimate of the
decline in Arctic
sea ice extent would also be reflected, at least partly,
in an underestimate of Arctic temperature rise.
Using
extent data up to 2010, they do not directly address the claim that the
decline of
extent in Arctic
Sea Ice is linear vs the claim that it is accelerating.
All climate models tell us that it is the Arctic
sea ice cover that
declines first, and that Antarctic
ice extent falls only later, and may even (as observed) temporarily increase
in response to changing patterns of atmospheric circulation.
So, I was curious about your recent paper and whether there was any discussion of changes
in the THC poleward of the GIS shelf vs the data from the RAPID program line located at 26.5 N. With the
decline in minimum
extent and volume of
sea -
ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean, with consequences for both climate and weather.
A graph of September Arctic
sea ice extent (blue diamonds) with «recovery» years highlighted
in red, versus the long - term
sea ice decline fit with a second order polynomial, also
in red.
Overall,
sea ice extent declined at a slightly slower rate than normal (relative to the 1981 - 2010 average rate) during June (Figure 6), losing a total of 1.6 million km2 as noted in NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis repo
sea ice extent declined at a slightly slower rate than normal (relative to the 1981 - 2010 average rate) during June (Figure 6), losing a total of 1.6 million km2 as noted in NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis repo
ice extent declined at a slightly slower rate than normal (relative to the 1981 - 2010 average rate) during June (Figure 6), losing a total of 1.6 million km2 as noted
in NSIDC's Arctic
Sea Ice News and Analysis repo
Sea Ice News and Analysis repo
Ice News and Analysis report.
Though
sea ice didn't melt as much
in 2009 as it did
in the previous two years, NSIDC scientists believe that the long - term
decline in summer
sea ice extent will continue.
Sea ice extent also continued its rapid decline with the Japanese Space Agency showing 4,800,000 square kilometers of sea ice extent, about equal to the third lowest measurement set in 20
Sea ice extent also continued its rapid
decline with the Japanese Space Agency showing 4,800,000 square kilometers of
sea ice extent, about equal to the third lowest measurement set in 20
sea ice extent, about equal to the third lowest measurement set
in 2008.
Although the Arctic Ocean is typically mostly covered by
ice, both the thickness and
extent of summer
sea ice in the Arctic have shown a dramatic
decline over the past thirty years, satellite measurements have found.
NASA satellite data reveals how this year's minimum
sea ice extent, reached on Sept. 9 as depicted here,
declined to a level far smaller than the 30 - year average (
in yellow) and opened up Northwest Passage shipping lanes (
in red).
Most interpretations of the recent
decline in Arctic
sea ice extent have focused on the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, with some allowance for natural variability.
As Stroeve et al. (2012) discuss, newer climate models have made some progress
in this area, but still can not account for the full
extent of the Arctic
sea ice decline.
Stroeve et al. (2011) noted that
in 2009 - 2010, the AO was
in a state which should have resulted
in a large
sea ice extent; the fact that 2010 was a year of relatively low
sea ice extent is indicative long - term human - caused
sea ice decline.
Although July data indicated that the
sea ice might be on track for a slight recovery from 2007 (though still well below «normal» climatological conditions), new
sea ice data and weather forecasts show that total
ice extent in early August
declined at about twice the rate of any other time this summer.
Cycles of natural variability such as the Arctic Oscillation are known to play a role
in Arctic
sea ice extent, but the sharp
decline seen
in this decade can not be explained by natural variability alone.
NEW YORK — Arctic
sea -
ice extent shrank to an unprecedented low this summer, part of a long - term
decline in the icy white cap over the far northern ocean.
In 2007, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic declined rapidl
In 2007, the
extent of
sea ice in the Arctic declined rapidl
in the Arctic
declined rapidly.
There is no explicit physical reasoning — the implicit assumption is that whatever factors drove the
sea ice extent to
decline approximately linearly during 10 Septembers between 1997 — 2006, will continue to operate
in September 2008.
Arctic
sea ice volume, area, and
extent have been
in long - term
decline for decades, and this
decline has accelerated over the past 5 years.
After a reaching its maximum
extent unusually early and then following a period of relatively unchanging overall
extent, Antarctic
sea ice extent started to
decline in earnest.
Not only does this low - pressure area, or cyclone, look bigger, more intense and longer - lasting than the one from last year, the
ice also seems to be
in a weaker state than ever, as evidenced by the fact that 2012 trend lines on both
sea ice area and
sea ice extent graphs track lower than previous record years, despite weather that until recently would completely stall the
decline.
Recent trends
in the
decline of Arctic polar
sea ice extent continued
in 2016.
Animation of changes
in average September
sea ice extent from 1979 through 2016 — with noteworthy natural variability and a long - term
decline.
However, the pace of
decline returned to near - average rates by July, and the end - of - summer minimum
sea ice extent, recorded on September 10, eventually tied for second lowest with 2007 (2012 remains the lowest
in the satellite time series by more than 600,000 square kilometers or 232,000 square miles).
At the start of fall freeze - up,
sea ice continues to be thinner and more mobile than prior to 2005, which might cause the
decline in extent to persist or accelerate.
This reflects a December pattern of faster - than - average growth
in the Arctic, and slightly slower - than average
sea ice extent decline in the Southern Ocean.
«Regarded as one of the world's most productive marine environments, the Bering
Sea is widely thought to be rapidly warming and losing sea ice... Results show that, rather than declining, mean annual sea ice extent in the Bering Sea has exhibited no significant change over the satellite sea ice record (1979 — 200
Sea is widely thought to be rapidly warming and losing
sea ice... Results show that, rather than declining, mean annual sea ice extent in the Bering Sea has exhibited no significant change over the satellite sea ice record (1979 — 200
sea ice... Results show that, rather than
declining, mean annual
sea ice extent in the Bering Sea has exhibited no significant change over the satellite sea ice record (1979 — 200
sea ice extent in the Bering
Sea has exhibited no significant change over the satellite sea ice record (1979 — 200
Sea has exhibited no significant change over the satellite
sea ice record (1979 — 200
sea ice record (1979 — 2009).
Global
sea -
ice extent has scarcely
declined in that time.
Dramatic
decline in Arctic
sea ice extent over last week.
If this is correct, then the fact that the
sea ice extent has been «
declining since records began» (
in 1979) doesn't mean that recent trends are unusual.
Anomalous cyclonic atmospheric circulation throughout the Arctic Basin during June has continued to precondition
sea ice, making the
ice cover vulnerable to a precipitous drop
in sea ice extent; however the persistence of the June cyclonic circulation (and cloudiness associated with the surface lows) has induced divergence within the
sea ice cover, and has delayed the onset of the rapid
sea ice extent decline typically observed
in June.
It is very likely that human activities have contributed to observed Arctic warming,
sea ice loss, glacier mass loss, and a
decline in snow
extent in the Northern Hemisphere.
Arctic
Sea Ice Decline: Projected Changes
in Timing and
Extent of
Sea Ice in the Bering and Chukchi
Seas: U.S. Geological Survey Open - File Report 2010 - 1176
Nearly all studies to date published
in the peer - reviewed literature agree that summer Arctic
sea ice extent is rapidly
declining and that, if heat - trapping gas concentrations continue to rise, an essentially
ice - free summer Arctic ocean will be realized before mid-century.
Arctic
sea ice extent and thickness have
declined substantially, especially
in late summer (September), when there is now only about half as much
sea ice as at the beginning of the satellite record
in 1979 (Ch.
+ algal blooms
in the Barents
Sea + declining sea ice exte
Sea +
declining sea ice exte
sea ice extent.