The decline in the market appears to have coincided with the publishing and circulation of a research note from JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic, who among other things noted that the recent
decline in stock correlations we've seen mirrors action investors saw before big sell - offs in 1994 and 2001.
Not exact matches
With
correlations having become positive, the rise
in bond yields likely will lead to a
decline in stocks.
Readers have no doubt noticed that numerous inter-market
correlations seem to have been suspended lately, and that many things are happening that superficially seem to make little sense (e.g. falling junk bond yields while defaults are surging; the yen rising since the BoJ adopted negative rates;
stocks rising amid a persistent
decline in earnings growth; bonds, gold and
stocks moving
in unison, etc., etc.).
The current
decline in market
correlations started following the US elections and was largely driven by macro (rather than
stock specific) forces.»
Correlations between
stocks and equity sectors, for example, have
declined markedly
in the U.S. and Europe, our research shows.
«Over the past year,
correlation of
stocks and sectors
declined at an unprecedented speed and magnitude,» Kolanovic wrote
in a note to clients.
Lenders identified a clear
correlation between the construction of water mills and the
decline in salmon
stocks.
These long - term
correlation trends will need to reverse if investors expect international developed markets to hold up
in the face of meaningful
declines in the U.S.
stock market.
That argument is that since
correlations in the U.S. equity market are
declining (perhaps as a consequence of the Federal Reserve tapering its support of the Treasury market),
stock selection strategies will perform better than
in a more macro-driven investment environment.
However, for the U.S.
stock sectors shown
in the bottom two rows of graphs, the
correlations have trended downward for many years and have
declined substantially.