DENVER — Even as governments worldwide have largely failed to limit emissions of global warming gases,
the decline of fossil fuel production may reduce those emissions significantly, experts said yesterday during a panel discussion at the Geological Society of America meeting.
2018 must be the year that a managed
decline of fossil fuel production is agreed to and begun.
Bill H: «2018 must be the year that a managed
decline of fossil fuel production is agreed to and begun.»
Entitled «The Sky's Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed
Decline of Fossil Fuel Production,» the report says that just burning fossil fuels from projects presently in operation will produce enough greenhouse gas emissions to push the world well past 2 °C of warming this century.
At a time when countries must be planning for a just transition and a managed
decline of their fossil fuel sectors, Norway is doing the opposite: it is looking for ways to keep adding new reserves to the mix.
Publicly commit to managing
the decline of the fossil fuel industry within the Paris goals of 1.5 degrees Celsius or well below 2 degrees Celsius.
The report confirms that while Norway has precedent - setting potential, the country must step up and lead in a managed
decline of its fossil fuel sector.
And perhaps of more immediate concern, the dismantling of the old economy and
the decline of the fossil fuel industry is being fiercely resisted by those who own it.
For my money, they are merely a symptom of a power struggle related to
the decline of fossil fuels.
In short — will this be a managed
decline of fossil fuel production, or an unmanaged decline?
While all countries will need to undergo a managed
decline of their fossil fuel sectors, the poorest nations will need significant support, including being allowed to burn their fair share of the global carbon budget to aid in the transition.
Two redevelopment proposals in Europe and North America are portending a possible renewable energy transition for hard - hit coal communities facing dislocation from
the decline of the fossil fuel resource.
The Sky's the Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed
Decline of Fossil Fuel Production
The year the world turned, primarily because the market woke up to the economic threat posed by climate change and the economic opportunity in the inevitable
decline of fossil fuels.
The Lofoten Declaration calls for no new exploration or expansion of oil, coal, or gas, and a managed
decline of the fossil fuel sector.
calls for no new exploration or expansion of oil, coal, or gas, and a managed
decline of the fossil fuel sector.
Norway has all of the characteristics of a country that must be a first mover in the managed
decline of its fossil fuel sector, and they are feeling the heat (see here, here, and here).
calls for a managed
decline of the fossil fuel sector in line with the Paris climate goals.
* distance in time from Hiroshima, the Cold War, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and the protest movement of the 70's (in the main) * aging population, meaning many younger respondents don't have personal experience of this negative history * immigration (in Australia particularly), from countries with nuclear power already, or which didn't have strong antinuclear movements * willingness to reconsider the option, based on both climate change, and the increasingly visible
decline of fossil fuels * smarter, better educated population
Not exact matches
Yet, despite this
decline, Arctic temperatures have soared and the most likely culprit is the build - up
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from
fossil fuel burning, forest clearing and other human activity, Kaufmann and his colleagues wrote.
That's been the goal
of solar panel makers for a long time, because as those prices
decline electricity from the sun costs the same as, or is even cheaper than electricity from burning
fossil fuels.
From a climate perspective, there is some good news about the likely
decline in the growth
of fossil fuel production discussed by others at the panel, Tans said.
The uptake
of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) by the ocean increases seawater acidity and causes a
decline in carbonate ion concentrations.
The Clean Power Plan, the Obama administration's most sweeping climate policy aiming to cut emissions from power plants that burn
fossil fuels, is another factor in the
decline of the coal industry.
As a result there is really no controversy about the cause
of the
declining pH. The
decline in pH
of 0.1 units since the 1800s and the present rate
of decline of -0.0017 units per year bear the clear stamp
of the hand
of man, i.e. the burning
of fossil fuels.
The new study, published last week in the journal Environmental Research Letters, showed that emissions
of sulfur dioxide, a common air pollutant released during coal and
fossil fuel combustion, increased from 2000 to 2006, after which they started to
decline.
A 6 % / year decrease
of fossil fuel emissions beginning in 2013, with 100 GtC reforestation, achieves a CO2
decline to 350 ppm near the end
of this century (Fig. 5A).
Since 2005 the consumption
of higher carbon
fossil fuels has begun to
decline very significantly, which has caused individual U.S. end - use Sectors» carbon emissions to also
decline.
Global emissions
of carbon dioxide from
fossil -
fuel burning jumped by the largest amount on record last year, upending the notion that the brief
decline during the recession might persist through the recovery.
The drought - induced
decline of carbon - dense tropical forests and their replacement by lower - carbon savannas would release enormous amounts
of CO2 to the atmosphere, amplifying global warming far beyond the effects
of just the CO2 released by burning
fossil fuels.
In this century, given continuing growth in the use
of fossil fuels, many climate scientists see the concentration exceeding 450 parts per million or even 550 parts per million before stabilizing and — someday, perhaps —
declining.
I have yet to see how society will replace our present massive use
of fossil carbon in time to minimize the impact
of the
decline in available low cost liquid
fuels after Peak Oil.
There are alternatives I don't think I convinced either
of my two audiences that
fossil fuels are going to disappear overnight, but once I drew their attention to recent
declines in Chinese coal production and a stall in global carbon emissions they did appear to concede that basing future investment decisions simply on past patterns
of consumption might not be the wisest
of strategies.
A reduction in
fossil fuel usage means a
decline in standards
of living (though not, necessarily, quality
of life).
Discussion
of fossil fuel depletion has no positive outcome, as it is a monotonic
decline with no respite.
Climate change, global economic instability, overpopulation, erosion
of community,
declining biodiversity, and resource wars, have all stemmed from the availability
of cheap, non-renewable
fossil fuels.
So, observing that C13 in the atmosphere has been
declining steadily though very slightly since 1850, they claim that this is due to man's burning
of fossil fuels, which are generally believed to be derived from fossilized plant matter.
If
declining alternative energy prices are the hammer on
fossil fuels, then the onset
of climate change is the anvil.
With the recent steep fall in oil prices and associated
declines in other energy prices, the stars are aligned for adopting a carbon tax on consumption
of fossil fuels, Lawrence Summers, a former treasury secretary and presidential adviser, says in the Washington Post.
Rapidly
declining costs
of wind and solar energy technologies, increasing concerns about the environmental and climate change impacts
of fossil fuels, and sustained investment in renewable energy projects all point to a not - so - distant future in which renewable energy plays a pivotal role in the electric power system
of the 21st century.
And not coincidentally, as renewables» share
of electrical generation has grown, that
of fossil fuels has
declined.
The introduction
of machines powered by cheap and easily accessible
fossil fuels led to a
decline in the use
of wind power, but since reserves
of these
fuels are finite and as the world becomes more conscious
of the pollution generated by these
fuels, focus has turned once again to tapping this free source
of energy.
In the present work, a multidisciplinary approach is used to examine how contributions
of H2SO4 and MSA to particle formation will change in a large coastal urban area as anthropogenic
fossil fuel emissions
of SO2
decline.
I guess my observation is that if
fossil fuel use will necessarily
decline naturally, due to the laws
of nature and physics, then that is a fruitless avenue to expend resources.
Increasing regulations are driving the sulfur content and use
of fossil fuels down (21), resulting in
declining atmospheric SO2 concentration and particulate sulfate concentrations.
CO2 production will
decline as
fossil fuels decline, solving the problem, if any,
of anthropogenically induced climate change.
The motivating question was: «Is the dramatic
decline in oil prices a complete gift to the West because
of the enormous funds being saved, or is it an unintended Trojan horse because development
of renewable energy as well as new
fossil -
fuel sources will
decline in the West, posing longer new challenges?»
Meanwhile, as the costs
of producing
fossil fuels rise, those for renewables are in sharp
decline (PDF).
Taken together nuclear and renewable energy sources have led to a
decline in overall share
of fossil fuels from 88 % in 1990 to about 86 %, the lowest in decades.
Convinced that an energy transition from
fossil fuels to green energy is under way, the federal government hasn't seemed too concerned about the
decline of Canadian oil and gas.