And that's before accounting for some
of the factors that the model doesn't consider: the disagreement in the polls, the unusual nature
of Trump's candidacy and the demographic changes it is producing, Clinton's superior
turnout operation, the possibility
of «shy Trump»
voters, the fact that the news cycle is still somewhat fluid headed into the final weekend, the
declining response rates to polls, and the substantial number
of high - profile polling misses around the world over the past few years.
I believe this is a change for the worse, and the complaint that «they're all the same» - that we're governed by an identikit political class - has much to do with the
decline of the Conservative Party and the rise
of UKIP, not to mention the fall in
voter turnout.