And that's before accounting for some
of the factors that the model doesn't consider: the disagreement in the polls, the unusual nature
of Trump's candidacy and the demographic changes it is producing, Clinton's superior turnout operation, the possibility
of «shy Trump»
voters, the fact that the news cycle is still somewhat fluid headed into the final weekend, the
declining response rates to polls, and the substantial
number of high - profile polling misses around the world over the past few years.