Models can help scientists understand what effects higher temperatures will have, for instance, or whether
declining sea ice cover on the Arctic Ocean will add to climate change.
For example, the Pacific - Arctic Gateway through the Bering Strait would be an ideal monitoring area because of increased heat and freshwater flow, increased marine mammal migration,
declining sea ice cover, increased oil and gas exploration, exploratory fisheries in the last decade, and flow of pollutants, especially persistent organic pollutants largely from Asia.
The empirical evidence from the past two decades reveals that
declining sea ice cover and thickness have been great enough to enhance Arctic warming during most of the year.
Not exact matches
«This shift is characterized by the persistent
decline in the thickness and summer extent of
sea -
ice cover and by a warmer, l
«One societally relevant implication is that more storminess probably means more erosion of Arctic coastlines, especially in tandem with
declines in buffering
sea ice cover and increases in thawing coastal permafrost,» concluded Dr. Vavrus.
«Because these plants are photosynthetic, it's not surprising to find that as the amount of
sea ice cover declined, the amount of [photosynthesis] increased,» says biological oceanographer Kevin Arrigo of Stanford University's School of Earth Sciences, who led an effort to use the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) devices on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites to determine changes in phytoplankton growth.
In September 2007 less
sea ice covered the Arctic than at any point since the U.S. government began keeping records of its
decline.
Krill require a
cover of
sea ice to spawn and hide from predators, and recent Antarctic krill
declines have been linked to the retreating
ice.
Arctic warming has caused a rapid
decline in
sea ice cover during the past decade that could seriously affect everything from Arctic ecosystems to shipping and oil drilling.
Researchers also tracked
sea ice cover in the Arctic over these two periods and found that the
ice declined substantially from the first to the second period.
Projected 21st Century
Decline Snow
Cover Overlying the Arctic
Sea Ice and Implications for the
Sea Ice and Arctic Climate in CESM / CCSM Benjamin Blazey
The findings suggest that while the response of Antarctic summer
sea ice to human - caused climate change may be less dramatic than in the Arctic,
sea ice cover may have
declined by as much as 14 % over the last 100 years.
The data (back to 1979) suggest that snow
cover has not been
declining at the rate of
sea ice and this study could be an explanation of that.
Probably not from Arctic
sea ice cover reduction either, as the
ice cover in the late 60s, begin 70s doesn't show a
decline (as far as reliable in the pre-satellite era).
Furthermore,
decline in snow
cover and
sea ice will tend to amplify regional warming through snow and
ice - albedo feedback effects (see Glossary and Chapter 9).
Furthermore, Prof. Slingo rejected data which shows a
decline in Arctic
sea ice volume of 75 % and also rejected the possibility that further decreases may cause an immediate collapse of
ice cover.
All climate models tell us that it is the Arctic
sea ice cover that
declines first, and that Antarctic
ice extent falls only later, and may even (as observed) temporarily increase in response to changing patterns of atmospheric circulation.
Marc Kaufman, «
Decline in Winter Arctic
Ice Linked to Greenhouse Gases,» Washington Post, 14 September 2006; Joséfino C. Comiso, «Abrupt
Decline in the Arctic Winter
Sea Ice Cover,» Geophysical Research Letters, vol.
Although the Arctic Ocean is typically mostly
covered by
ice, both the thickness and extent of summer
sea ice in the Arctic have shown a dramatic
decline over the past thirty years, satellite measurements have found.
Besides these thousands of thermometer readings from weather stations around the world, there are many other clear indicators of global warming such as rising ocean temperatures,
sea level, and atmospheric humidity, and
declining snow
cover, glacier mass, and
sea ice.
The majority of the winter warming is associated with changes in
sea ice cover even though the
sea ice declines at this time of the year are relatively small.
Arctic
sea ice declined by roughly 10 percent in the past decade, culminating in a record 2007 minimum
ice cover of 1.59 million square miles.
Furthermore, the Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, and stimulated by the combined increasing Arctic temperatures and rapid loss of
sea ice in all seasons along with
declining snow
cover in the spring and early summer.
Since the satellite record began in 1979, summer
sea ice cover has fallen by around 13 % per decade, with rising temperatures playing a large role in the
decline.
According to AMEG, here's how climate change in the Arctic has changed weather patterns: Over the past three decades, snow
cover has been reduced by 17 - 18 % per decade and
sea ice is
declining fast because of human - induced global warming.
The evidence for rapid climate change is compelling:
Sea level rise, Global temperature rise, Warming oceans, Shrinking ice sheets, Declining Arctic sea ice, Glacial retreat, Extreme events, Ocean acidification, Decreased snow cover http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ It's changing «rapidly&raqu
Sea level rise, Global temperature rise, Warming oceans, Shrinking
ice sheets,
Declining Arctic
sea ice, Glacial retreat, Extreme events, Ocean acidification, Decreased snow cover http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ It's changing «rapidly&raqu
sea ice, Glacial retreat, Extreme events, Ocean acidification, Decreased snow
cover http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ It's changing «rapidly».
For more on the terrestrial foods topic, see my detailed discussion in this previous post, and this recent (March 30) ScienceNews report on yet another, largely anecdotal «polar bears resort to bird eggs because of
declining sea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also covered March 31 at the DailyMail («Polar bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also
covered March 31 at the DailyMail («Polar bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic
sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots of hand - wringing and
sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice hype but little mention of the fact that there are many more bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable, cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on
sea ice conditions in the Barents Se
sea ice conditions in the Barents
SeaSea).
«leading to a dramatic
decline in the amount of
sea ice that
covers the region each winter.»
For example, the dramatic
decline of summer
sea ice in the Arctic — a loss of
ice cover roughly equal to half the area of the continental United States — exacerbates global warming by reducing the reflectivity of Earth's surface and increasing the amount of heat absorbed.
The Arctic is warming much faster than most of the planet, leading to a dramatic
decline in the amount of
sea ice that
covers the region each winter.
Anomalous cyclonic atmospheric circulation throughout the Arctic Basin during June has continued to precondition
sea ice, making the
ice cover vulnerable to a precipitous drop in
sea ice extent; however the persistence of the June cyclonic circulation (and cloudiness associated with the surface lows) has induced divergence within the
sea ice cover, and has delayed the onset of the rapid
sea ice extent
decline typically observed in June.
Polar bears are one of the most sensitive Arctic marine mammals to climate warming because they spend most of their lives on
sea ice.35 Declining sea ice in northern Alaska is associated with smaller bears, probably because of less successful hunting of seals, which are themselves ice - dependent and so are projected to decline with diminishing ice and snow cover.36, 37,38,39 Although bears can give birth to cubs on sea ice, increasing numbers of female bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic, sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region
sea ice.35
Declining sea ice in northern Alaska is associated with smaller bears, probably because of less successful hunting of seals, which are themselves ice - dependent and so are projected to decline with diminishing ice and snow cover.36, 37,38,39 Although bears can give birth to cubs on sea ice, increasing numbers of female bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic, sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region
sea ice in northern Alaska is associated with smaller bears, probably because of less successful hunting of seals, which are themselves
ice - dependent and so are projected to
decline with diminishing
ice and snow
cover.36, 37,38,39 Although bears can give birth to cubs on
sea ice, increasing numbers of female bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic, sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region
sea ice, increasing numbers of female bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic,
sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region
sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in
decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar polar bear population
declines are projected for the Beaufort
Sea region
Sea region.45
[Gallery: Vanishing Glaciers] «The average thickness of the Arctic
sea ice cover is
declining because it is rapidly losing its thick component, the multi-year
ice.
This report discusses our current understanding of the mechanisms that link
declines in Arctic
sea ice cover, loss of high - latitude snow
cover, changes in Arctic - region energy fluxes, atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events; possible implications of more severe loss of summer Arctic
sea ice upon weather patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps in our understanding, and observational and / or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations for using Arctic
sea ice predictions to assess the risk of temperature / precipitation anomalies and extreme weather events over northern continents.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001215 They showed a low bias in IPCC evaluations for
sea level rise, CO2 emissions,
sea ice decline, permafrost melt and carbon feedbacks, rainfall intensity and northern hemisphere snow
cover.
The study adds to the evidence showing that the free - fall in summer
sea ice extent and even sharper
decline in spring snow
cover in the Northern Hemisphere is reverberating throughout the atmosphere, making extreme events more likely to occur.
The new study, along with other previously published research, showed that the
decline in
sea ice and snow
cover has slowed the west - to - easterly component of the jet stream, thereby enhancing the north - to - south waviness of the jet, which leads to the creation of more stagnant or «blocked» weather patterns.
The rapidly
declining summer Arctic
sea -
ice cover might already have passed a tipping point, although this is hard to identify due to high year - to - year variability.
In addition, the
decline of Arctic Ocean
sea ice cover led to increased warmth, and therefore buoyancy, of water that flowed into the North Atlantic, Sévellec et al. (2017).
Within this uncertainty range, this reconstruction suggests that the pronounced
decline in summer Arctic
sea ice cover that began in the late twentieth century is unprecedented in both magnitude and duration when compared with the range of variability of the previous roughly 1,450 years.
How much it has grown is not stated in the paper: «Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic
sea ice» http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf but it seems very clear that Arctic
sea -
ice loss is in accelerating
decline towards zero in the coming decades, meaning that this forcing will rise very substantially along with those from land -
ice and snow
cover decline.
The President made several incorrect statements, including suggesting that global temperatures are not increasing, and
sea ice cover is not
declining.
The new evidence — including satellite data showing that the average multiyear wintertime
sea ice cover in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 was nine feet thick, a significant
decline from the 1980s — contradicts data cited in widely circulated reports by Washington Post columnist George F. Will that
sea ice in the Arctic has not significantly
declined since 1979.
Barents
Sea numbers have probably increased since 2005 and have definitely not declined despite much less sea ice cov
Sea numbers have probably increased since 2005 and have definitely not
declined despite much less
sea ice cov
sea ice cover.