Shown below is
the declining sea ice trend for the month of January since satellite measurements began, in 1979.
Not exact matches
The record follows a
trend over the past three years of anomalously high winter
ice extents, providing a stark contrast to the inexorable
decline of Arctic
sea ice
The
trends revealed by the data were clear: The average albedo in the northern area of the Arctic Ocean, including open water and
sea ice, is
declining in all summer months (May - August).
The present
decline in
sea ice is occurring at a pace seen in earlier episodes, but the sustained
trend (now nearly 50 years long) is unprecedented in the 1,450 - year reconstruction period presented here.»
Although there is still definitely a
declining trend in Arctic
sea ice (2009 and 2008 were still the second and third lowest
sea ice extents, after 2007) there was a lot of hype surrounding the 2007 minimum even though that was partly just natural variability in the Arctic climate.
A comparison of observed
sea ice decline with the model ensemble spread can tell us only how likely an observed
trend is relative to that ensemble.
BTW, my fearless «denialism forecast» for the next month is for
declining mentions of surface temperature
trends, 30 - 50 % chance of more scientist bashing, and sporadic outbreaks of «Arctic
sea ice recovery» — at least until the melting season gathers some steam.
We find a consistent decreasing
trend in Arctic Ocean
sea ice thickness since 1979, and a steady
decline in the Eastern Arctic Ocean over the full 40 - year period of comparison that accelerated after 1980, but the predictions of Western Arctic Ocean
sea ice thickness between 1962 and 1980 differ substantially.
The
trend in
declining Arctic
Sea Ice (NSIDC) is similar to the
trend for earlier Midwest Spring Snowmelt Runoff (mnforsustain.org).
Following this summer's new record
ice loss, the Arctic will enter a winter with even less
ice than ever before, leading to even thinner
ice, which barring any monumental external events like a major volcanic eruption, will likely perpetuate the
trend in
sea ice decline.
We're not talking about day trading here, we're talking climate and long range
trends like a steady
decline in
sea ice over decades, shrinking glaciers world - wide, deforestation, etc..
The
sea ice grows and recedes with the seasons every year and has been on the
decline since spring... and the overall
trend over time is definitely downward.
While
sea ice in the Arctic grows and shrinks with the seasons, there is an overall
declining trend, as north pole has warmed roughly twice as fast as the global average.
(08/20/2013) As
sea ice levels continue to
decline in the northern hemisphere, scientists are observing an unsettling
trend in harp seal young mortalities regardless of juvenile fitness.
Just as importantly, he says, the model helps to explain regional
trends that seem to defy the global warming hiatus, including record - breaking heat in the United States last year, and the continued
decline of Arctic
sea ice.
The study also provides an explanation for seemingly incongruous climate
trends, such as how
sea ice can continue to
decline during this period of stalled warming, and when the
sea ice decline might reverse.
53 % of the Outlook contributions suggest the September minimum will remain below 5 million square kilometers, representing a continued
trend of
declining sea ice extent.
Not only does this low - pressure area, or cyclone, look bigger, more intense and longer - lasting than the one from last year, the
ice also seems to be in a weaker state than ever, as evidenced by the fact that 2012
trend lines on both
sea ice area and
sea ice extent graphs track lower than previous record years, despite weather that until recently would completely stall the
decline.
Recent
trends in the
decline of Arctic polar
sea ice extent continued in 2016.
Recent Arctic
sea ice behaviour is jerky, sometimes showing a seasonal growing
trend and sometimes showing a seasonal
declining trend.
The first graph on global
sea ice area uses an expanded scale in an attempt to hide the fact that indeed, there's a
declining trend (caption «no
trend over 30 years»).
We can tie long - term
trends, like 30 years of
declining Arctic
sea ice, to a warming world, but we don't yet have the technology to attribute a single anomalous season to a particular cause.
The most likely explanation for the linear
trend [in
sea ice decline] during the satellite era from 1979 onwards is the almost linear increase in CO2 concentration during that period.
The area of Arctic
sea ice was nearly 30 % greater in August than a year ago, according to recent satellite data, though projections based on longer - term
trends suggest the
sea ice will continue its
decline over time.
If this is correct, then the fact that the
sea ice extent has been «
declining since records began» (in 1979) doesn't mean that recent
trends are unusual.
As
sea ice declines, it becomes thinner, with less
ice build - up over multiple years, and therefore more vulnerable to further melting.15 Models that best match historical
trends project northern waters that are virtually
ice - free by late summer by the 2030s.25, 26,12 Within the general downward
trend in
sea ice, there will be time periods with both rapid
ice loss and temporary recovery, 27 making it challenging to predict short - term changes in
ice conditions.
«There is no doubt that Arctic
sea ice extent is
trending downwards, with much of that multi-decadal
decline in
sea ice extent being due to human - induced climate change,» Hoerling told BuzzFeed News by email.
There is currently one clearly significant
sea ice trend in the Antarctic; it is in the region bordering the Antarctic Peninsula, and it is a
declining trend.
A look at the
trend over the last 30 years shows an acceleration of the
decline in Arctic
Sea Ice extent.
While we have not evaluated all of the feedback mechanisms and internal and external forcing factors involved, we have shown evidence that the West Antarctic warming is consistent with the regional
decline of
sea ice in the ABS and with the atmospheric circulation
trends over the Southern Oceans.
However, there is also an emerging signal of overall Arctic
sea ice decline since 1979 in both winter and summer that is not directly attributable to a
trend in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»
While NASA says
sea ice probably won't set any records this year, we have this horrible news: Sea ice decline spurs the greening of the Arctic Sea ice decline and warming trends are changing the vegetation in nearby arctic coastal areas, according to two University of Alaska Fairbanks scientis
sea ice probably won't set any records this year, we have this horrible news:
Sea ice decline spurs the greening of the Arctic Sea ice decline and warming trends are changing the vegetation in nearby arctic coastal areas, according to two University of Alaska Fairbanks scientis
Sea ice decline spurs the greening of the Arctic
Sea ice decline and warming trends are changing the vegetation in nearby arctic coastal areas, according to two University of Alaska Fairbanks scientis
Sea ice decline and warming
trends are changing the vegetation in nearby arctic coastal areas, according to two University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists.
The original quote speaks of the 2009
ice extent representing the continuation of a general
trend, «consistent with a
decline of August
sea ice extent since 1979 ′, ie, not as much
ice as there was, once.
The continued
declining trend in Arctic
sea ice has been well forecast by climate models, something that can't be said at the other end of the planet.
It is clear that the
trend of Arctic
sea ice decline indicates that it'll be
ice - free for an increasingly large part of the year, with consequences for the climate.
In their paper «Exploring recent
trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking,» Barnes and colleagues used various meteorological definitions of «blocking» along with various datasets of atmospheric conditions to assess whether or not there have been any
trends in the frequency of blocking events that could be tied to changes in global warming and / or the
declines in Arctic
sea ice.
The paper concluded that «current climate models are still quite poor at modelling past
sea ice trends» after including a graph showing a
decline in
sea ice starting at the beginning of the «satellite era» in 1979.
«The
trend in
sea ice decline, lack of winter recovery, early onset of spring melting, and warmer - than - average temperatures suggest a system that is trapped in a loop of positive feedbacks, in which responses to inputs into the system cause it to shift even further away from normal.
The
trend towards stronger circumpolar winds has also caused a
sea ice extent
decline near the Antarctic Peninsula.
For example, while all of the global climate models participating in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report show a
decline in Arctic
sea ice over the period of available observations, none of them match the severity of the
trends we actually observe.
But just as one warm day in October does not negate a cooling
trend toward winter, a slight annual gain in
sea ice extent over a record low does not negate the long - term
decline.