Decreases in rainfall in recent years could mean multiyear drought conditions in the southwestern U.S. and drying out of farmland for millions of people in Ecuador, Colombia and elsewhere.
But in winter and spring, when CSIRO
projected decreases in rainfall, my calculations show an increase in rainfall in 1995 to 2006 compared with 1984 to 1995.
These assumed that the
largest decreases in rainfall would be in winter and spring (decreases of 5 % and 11 % between 1990 and 2030 on the low and high global warming scenarios respectively), but rainfall was fractionally HIGHER in winter / spring in the more recent period (1995 - 2006) than in the previous 11 - year period.
In summer and autumn the CSIRO projections were for
smaller decreases in rainfall than in winter and spring, but the observed change was a substantial decrease: in fact, as large a decrease between the successive 11 - year periods as CSIRO projected on the high global warming scenario over the 40 - year period from 1990 to 2030.
For example, it warned that large tracts of the Amazon rain forest might be wiped out by global warming because they are extremely susceptible to even
modest decreases in rainfall.
I should add that there is considerable uncertainty associated with the models
suggesting decreases in rainfall, and uncertainty as to how Amazon forests may react (especially when one considers the impacts of deforestation, logging, and fire combined with climate change impacts).
Furthermore due to the atmospheric warming effect of soot, it has been cited as «a major factor in triggering extreme weather in eastern India & Bangladesh,» as well as being linked to
decreases in rainfall in central India.
Water stress can be caused by rising temperatures,
decreases in rainfall, or a combination of the two.
«It can't be detected at present day because the signal,
the decrease in rainfall, is small compared to the interannual variability in rainfall,» said Gordon Bonan, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, who was not connected to the study.
Resilience needs to be built into agricultural planning to adjust to
the decrease in rainfall in the greater Horn of Africa over these past four decades.
«Through their analysis, [the authors] showed that
the decrease in rainfall is actually very robust across all models,» Bonan continued.
The researchers reached the same conclusion for the expected regional increases and
decreases in rainfall: Again, the species adapted 10,000 to 100,000 times too slowly.
«So a decrease in moisture in those air masses could cause
a decrease in rainfall.»
Decreases in rainfall are evident in analyses of shorter periods, such as the decade from 1986 to 1995 that was the driest of the 20th century.
Ian, looking at the projections it certainly appears that increased evaporation plays a bigger role than
decreases in rainfall, but of course the two interact, and the reduction in streamflow is larger again (commonly by a factor of three) than the reduction in rainfall net of evaporation.
Water stress can be caused by rising temperatures,
decreases in rainfall, or a combination of the two.
The IPCC was accused of exaggerating the extent to which the Amazon rainforest could be damaged by
a decrease in rainfall.
Over central South America, all models show
a decrease in rainfall that reaches more than 20 percent in parts of the Amazon region.
Over central South America, all the models showed
a decrease in rainfall that reached more than 20 percent in parts of the Amazon region.
Other regions experiencing
a decrease in rainfall are the southernmost parts of South America and much of Chile.