Interestingly, despite the notion that AGW should
decrease storm frequency and increase intensity, these two appear to be directly rather than inversely related in existing record.
Not exact matches
Joint research from the Monash branch of the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) and NASA published in Nature found even though other types of rainfall has
decreased in
frequency and the total number of thunderstorms remained the same, the increase in big
storms had elevated total rainfall.
Although average summer
storm activity
decreases, the most intense winter
storms are projected to increase in
frequency under continued global warming.
Some of the effects are related to erosional processes such as a
decrease in sediment supply, changes in the intensity and
frequency of extreme events (
storms and cyclones, among others), and changes in sea levels and in the wave climate.
As the climate changes, tropical cyclones are expected to produce more rain and the
frequency of the highest intensity
storms is projected to increase even though the overall number of
storms may remain unchanged or perhaps even
decrease.
For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase in both
storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with
storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased in number during the last century in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally
decreased in southern and some western areas, 16 increased in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier in the year and more precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been
decreasing in
frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. in some years, with little snow in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remains an active research area.
Current work1 has provided evidence of the increase in
frequency and intensity of winter
storms, with the
storm tracks shifting poleward, 2,3 but some areas have experienced a
decrease in winter
storm frequency.4 Although there are some indications of increased blocking (a large - scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere, 5 the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remain an active research area.6 Some recent research has provided insight into the connection of global warming to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.7, 8
Study shows China's severe weather patterns changing drastically since 1960 In one of the most comprehensive studies on trends in local severe weather patterns to date, an international team of researchers found that the
frequency of hail
storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has
decreased by nearly 50 percent on average throughout China since 1960.
Mid-latitude
storms have
decreased in
frequency (e.g., in the United States overall) while high - latitude
storm activity has increased (e.g., in Canada).4 It is likely that human influence contributed to these changes.5
«When we compared the current convective population to the future, we found that weak to moderate
storms decrease in
frequency, whereas the most intense
storms increase in
frequency,» Rasmussen said.
But was it not scientists, with their words printed in the Guardian, repeated by policy - makers, which warned of «Arctic death spirals»; «ice - free Arctic summers»; the proliferation of disease; worsening, intensifying and increasing
frequency of
storms, flood, drought and fire; dramatic
decreases in agricultural productivity in Africa; increased warming between 2009 - 14; the immanent demise of Himalayan glaciers and the consequent denial of water to over a billion people; The deaths of 150,000 and then 300,000 people in the developing world each year; and so on?
For example, our 2015 study projects an increase in tropical
storm frequency in the Northeast Pacific and near Hawaii, and a
decrease in category 4 - 5
storm days over much of the southern hemisphere basins and parts of the northwest Pacific basin — both at variance with the global - scale projected changes.