Effectively, if we can not detect an anthropogenic signal in
deep ocean heat data, anthropogenic global warming would necessarily be characterized as a belief, not a scientifically confirmed hypothesis.
Not exact matches
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Data collected by a network of free - floating sensors, known as ARGO floats, show that from January 2006 to December 2013, a lot more
heat has been finding its way to the
deep ocean instead.
If the correlations were positive, that temperatures matched Scenario B, would you accept skeptics saying, «Sure, but really, Scenario C is more useful», and if the
ocean -
heat data looked like Lyman (2010), them saying «Sure, but that's only because
deeper heat is being transfered to the surface and replaced by cooler waters, but we can't see it»?
There have been many explanations put borth inlcluding
deep ocean heating, ozone chemistry, volcanoes reducing incident energy, trade winds and, of course, Cowtan and Way along with this latest
data set that shows the energy imbalance is still tracking CO2.
The increase in
deep ocean heat content is also a robust result in
data sets that do not include reanalysis.
Of the
heat accumulating in the upper 1,800 meters of
oceans for 2004 — 2011, 46 percent was sequestered in the
deep oceans (below 700 meters) in the Lyman & Johnson
data set.
For example, as discussed in Nuccitelli et al. (2012), the
ocean heat content
data set compiled by a National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of ocean heat absorption has occurred in the deeper ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (20
data set compiled by a National Oceanographic
Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of ocean heat absorption has occurred in the deeper ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (20
Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of
ocean heat absorption has occurred in the
deeper ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (2013).
The «puzzling» facts triggered the predictable alarmist tactic of attacking the
data and claiming the
heat was hiding in the really
deep ocean.
Several recent studies have also concluded that it is necessary to include
data from the
deep ocean in order to reconcile global
heat content and the TOA energy imbalance, which DK12 failed to do.
Aside from continuing to misunderstand that the «missing
heat» is about having an inadequate global climate observational network (mainly because we don't have good measurements of
deep ocean heat), observational
data have demonstrated that water vapor, and likely clouds, are indeed positive feedbacks.
The latest
data analysis locates most of that missing
heat deep in the Atlantic
Ocean.
The paper also includes this useful table illustrating that according to observational
data,
ocean heat content has indeed accumulated rapidly in the
deep oceans in recent years.
However, the key point here is that the observational
data, including Curry's own reference, contradict her point by finding substantial
deep ocean heat sequestration over the past decade.
However, as we recently discussed, the increase in
deep ocean heat content is a robust result in
data sets that do not include reanalysis.
Excess energy is also penetrating
deeper into the
ocean and farther south, Roemmich and colleagues found, analyzing Argo
data measuring
heat down to 2,000 meters (1.24 miles).
The world's
oceans have warmed at twice the rate of previous decades and the extra
heat has reached
deeper waters, finds
data stretching back to 1960.
A slight change of
ocean temperature (after a delay caused by the high specific
heat of water, the annual mixing of thermocline waters with
deeper waters in storms) ensures that rising CO2 reduces infrared absorbing H2O vapour while slightly increasing cloud cover (thus Earth's albedo), as evidenced by the fact that the NOAA
data from 1948 - 2008 shows a fall in global humidity (not the positive feedback rise presumed by NASA's models!)
I guess I'll add that the big new variable that many are discussing,
deep ocean heat transfer, only has
data for the last five years from the Argo floats.
The grossly inexplicable assumption by the IPCC that the
oceans are static considering they constitute 70 % of the surface area of the earth, 1000 times the
heat capacity of the atmosphere and is 10s of thousands of feet
deep in contact with the mantle of the earth for which we have virtually NO
data to this very day.
Gavin, I think it would be worth adding to the post 1) the main reason why there was so much doubt about the Lyman et al results (the unphysical melt amounts for 2003 - 5), 2) the expected role of GRACE in obtaining a reliable result, 3) the fact that the ARGOs don't measure the
deep oceans, and 4) that it's inappropriate to take the remaining ARGO
data (shown in the Lyman et al correction to be essentially flat for the last two years) and draw any conclusions about
ocean heat content trends for that period.
Using 1981 - 2011
ocean heat data (again for 0 - 2000m, from Levitus et al, 2012), rather than the last 10 years, to compute the trend would have reduced the recent - period OHU estimate, scaling up as before to allow for
heat uptake in the
deeper ocean and elsewhere, by 0.08 W / m.
In the Jyllands - Posten article, Svensmark also disputes the
data showing the accelerated accumulation of
heat in the
deep oceans.
Perhaps Judith ought have said, «Central to the arguments [coming from The Team] related to... [Until they have a better
data and / or understanding of the «transfer» and «reappearance» of
deep ocean heat transference, this seems life more hopeful conjecture than science.»
Several people have linked to the NASA site Correcting
Ocean Cooling [1], which details the «pencil - whipping» of ocean heat data which eliminated the «deep sea cooling» of 2003 -
Ocean Cooling [1], which details the «pencil - whipping» of
ocean heat data which eliminated the «deep sea cooling» of 2003 -
ocean heat data which eliminated the «
deep sea cooling» of 2003 - 2005.
We've gotten better measurements of
heat storage in the
oceans since sometime in the 1990s (see Roger Pielke Sr.'s blog, lots of entries on this subject, search for «Josh Willis» to start), I think from satellites supplemented by unmanned devices which dive to as
deep as 2,000 meters then resurface and send their
data to satellite (Argo floats).