Sentences with phrase «deep ocean uptake»

E.g., given that the net radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere remains negative, which certainly indicates continued warming, Trenberth's studies suggest deep ocean uptake of most of the recent heating.

Here is their difficulty: If they invoke the deep ocean uptake of heat (without proof) this looks like handwaving but also means that the time to equilibrium could be very long such that the next 100 years is governed by the transient sensitivity not the equilibrium value.

Heat transfer into the deep oceans is pretty much all mechanically driven by «circulation» factors, so a cooling of the southern oceans due to changes in surface winds and currents would tend to change deep ocean uptake.

I got a most probable value of 1.55 C / doubling, a 17 % to 83 % range of 1.41 C to 3.27 C / doubling, and a 5 % to 95 % range of 1.18 C to 6.2 C / doubling... not far from your values (but I assumed a little higher total heat accumulation, including deep ocean uptake equal to 10 % of the 0 - 2000M value, and some additonal heat for ice melt and land mass warming).

Not exact matches

Dr Peter Stott, commenting on Gavin's study in the Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds says the term slowdown is valid because the past 15 years might have been still hotter were it not for natural variations like deep ocean heat uptake.

The authors note that more than 85 % of the global heat uptake (Q) has gone into the oceans, including increasing the heat content of the deeper oceans, although their model only accounts for the upper 700 meters.

Kevin Trenberth, who has recently published a paper on this topic, explains the increased heat uptake in the deep ocean:

Dr Peter Stott, commenting on Gavin's study in the Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds says the term slowdown is valid because the past 15 years might have been still hotter were it not for natural variations like deep ocean heat uptake.

Here we quantify the effects of key parametric uncertainties and observational constraints on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three - dimensional ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of deep ocean processes and heat uptake.

Think of what would happen if you could pump cold deep water up to the surface, increasing the air / sea temperature gradient and warming the water; that would give you an anomalously large ocean heat uptake.

Then when they have partitioned themselves according to the original distribution, we will still have 15 % of the green molecules in the atmosphere, and these will only disappear over the longer time that it takes for mixing with the deep ocean and permanent uptake in the terrestrial sink, possibly more than 1000 years.

Short - term variations in ocean heat uptake, such as the anomalous deep ocean warming of late, are due to changes in the vertical & horizontal distribution of heat in the ocean — mostly the wind - driven ocean circulation.

For example, there are not sufficient observations of the uptake of heat, particularly into the deep ocean, that would be one of the possible mechanisms to explain this warming hiatus.»

c) The uncertainties in the ocean heat uptake may be underestimated by Levitus, and there are additional uncertainties regarding the role of deep ocean heat uptake (Meehl et al. 2011 Nature Climate Change).

[Response: A decadal variation in the rate of deep ocean heat uptake.

I believe Trenberth's travesty email highlighted the confusion on deeper ocean heat uptake.

The coralline sponges also indicate that your formula doesn't hold for the period after 1940, as increased plant uptake + increased deep ocean release of CO2 (the only other fast source of huge quantities of CO2) both should increase the d13C level of the atmosphere and the upper ocean waters.

«Model - Based Evidence of Deep - Ocean Heat Uptake During Surface - Temperature Hiatus Periods.»

The rate of OHC uptake and solar are in the same order of magnitude, with an inertial lag, the deeper oceans would continue warming slowly while the upper layer flattens.

We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum.

Vast and slow to change temperature, the oceans have a huge capacity to sequester heat, especially the deep ocean, which is playing an increasingly large uptake and storage role.

Along those lines, Watanabe et al. (2013) showed that ocean heat uptake has become more efficient over the past decade, which is consistent with the observations of Balmaseda et al. (2013), who found an unprecedented transfer of heat to the deep oceans over the past decade, consistent with the modeling in Meehl et al (2013).

Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, J. T. Fasullo, A. Hu, and K. E. Trenberth, 2011: Model - based evidence of deep - ocean heat uptake during surface - temperature hiatus periods.

Since the ocean surface temperature is always greater than the deep ocean temperature, no change in «surface» forcing is required to change the rate of ocean heat uptake, just changes in «average» circulation factors.

Even if you assume a low value for the variables of SO2 cooling and the rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean.

If some of the ocean heat uptake during the last 20 years has shifted from the shallow and warm parts to the deeper and colder parts this would reduce the total thermal expansion even if the total heat flux into the oceans remained the same.

Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. Y., Hu, A. & Trenberth, K. E. Model - based evidence of deep - ocean heat uptake during surface - temperature hiatus periods.

«These shifts were accompanied by breaks in the global mean temperature trend with respect to time, presumably associated with either discontinuities in the global radiative budget due to the global reorganization of clouds and water vapor or dramatic changes in the uptake of heat by the deep ocean.

Swanson and Tsonis (2009) suggest that decadal surface cooling and warming results from a change in energy uptake in the deep oceans or a change in cloud and water vapour dynamics.

The latter determines the intensity of convection in the ocean and the timescale of deep - ocean processes affecting CO2 uptake and storage.

That the slowdown in surface warming has been concentrated in the ocean - surface (and shallow - ocean) temperatures has led a number of scientists (including the Met Office) to posit that the pause in ocean surface warming may be driven in part by increased heat uptake in the deep ocean.

Using 1981 - 2011 ocean heat data (again for 0 - 2000m, from Levitus et al, 2012), rather than the last 10 years, to compute the trend would have reduced the recent - period OHU estimate, scaling up as before to allow for heat uptake in the deeper ocean and elsewhere, by 0.08 W / m.

When applying this statistical correction, Watanabe et al. found an enhanced overall ocean heat uptake, which suggests that the slowed surface warming can be explained by internal variability transferring more heat to the deep oceans, consistent with previous research.

Rather, it is likely that surface warming gradually stabilizes ocean stratification, thus reducing deep - water production at high latitudes, which acts to weaken advective heat uptake by meridional overturning circulation [cf. Meehl et al., 2011; 2013].»

If you have good measurements of upper ocean and atmospheric temperatures, then if you had a good decade - long satellite record of the Earth's total radiative energy balance from space — say, if Triana has been launched to in the late 1990s — then you could use conservation of energy to calculate the rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean over the past ten years.

Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. & Trenberth, K. E. Model - based evidence of deep - ocean heat uptake during surface - temperature hiatus periods.

However the great uncertainties that affect the simulated trend (e.g., climate sensitivity, rate of heat uptake by the deep - ocean, and aerosol forcing strength) make this a highly dubious statement.