Maybe you should have a confab with Schmidt about the consequences of 2LoT and
deep ocean warming if you don't believe me or Curry.
Not exact matches
The longevity of global
warming (Fig. 9) and the implausibility of removing the
warming if it is once allowed to penetrate the
deep ocean emphasize the urgency of slowing emissions so as to stay close to the 500 GtC target.
The upper
ocean will only
warm to the equilibrium level
if it stops losing heat to the
deep ocean.
This can happen
if something increases the amount of mixing between the (
warm) shallow
ocean and the (cold)
deep ocean.
A lot of reseach energy is being devoted to the study of Methane Clathrates — a huge source of greenhouse gases which could be released from the
ocean if the thermocline (the buoyant stable layer of
warm water which overlies the near - freezing
deep ocean) dropped in depth considerably (due to GHG
warming), or especially
if the
deep ocean waters were
warmed by very, very extreme changes from the current climate, such that
deep water temperatures no longer hovered within 4C of freezing, but
warmed to something like 18C.
Think of what would happen
if you could pump cold
deep water up to the surface, increasing the air / sea temperature gradient and
warming the water; that would give you an anomalously large
ocean heat uptake.
If the released carbon were initially in the form of methane, it would have been oxidized to CO2 within a few decades, but as CO2 it apparently stuck around,
warming the
deep ocean, for a long time before it went away.
«Since the
ocean component of the climate system has by far the biggest heat capacity», I've been wondering
if the cool waters of the
deep ocean could be used to mitigate the effects of global
warming for a few centuries until we have really depleated our carbon reserves and the system can begin to recover on its own.
@ 48
If your speculation is correct, I assume that another consequence would be that, if / when concentrations of greenhouse gases start to drop, corresponding reductions in surface ocean / land temperatures would take place at a much slower rate than would otherwise be the case: the surplus heat stored in the deep ocean will gradually make its way to the ocean surface, and continue to warm the atmosphere for decades, if not longe
If your speculation is correct, I assume that another consequence would be that,
if / when concentrations of greenhouse gases start to drop, corresponding reductions in surface ocean / land temperatures would take place at a much slower rate than would otherwise be the case: the surplus heat stored in the deep ocean will gradually make its way to the ocean surface, and continue to warm the atmosphere for decades, if not longe
if / when concentrations of greenhouse gases start to drop, corresponding reductions in surface
ocean / land temperatures would take place at a much slower rate than would otherwise be the case: the surplus heat stored in the
deep ocean will gradually make its way to the
ocean surface, and continue to
warm the atmosphere for decades,
if not longe
if not longer.
Even
if readers don't understand the principles of oceanography it doesn't matter, the
warming of the
deep ocean is taking place regardless.
IF cool
deep sea water were mixed relentlessly with surface water by some engineering method --(e.g. lots of wave operated pumps and 800m pipes) could that enouromous cool reservoir of water a) mitigate the thermal expansion of the
oceans because of the differential in thermal expansion of cold and
warm water, and b) cool the atmosphere enough to reduce the other wise expected effects of global
warming?
Re Todd at # 1 and CM at # 5: Am I right in understanding that the key point is that it's quite possible for global surface temperatures to decrease even as the globe
warms if more than the excess inflow of heat goes into the
deep oceans?
That is,
if the world stabilized at its present temperature I suppose the
deep ocean would eventually get
warmer, as well as other changes.
If in exceeds out and the diffential MUST exist from top to bottom of the atmosphere, then before the hotter air can migrate to the deep ocean, the daily temerature cycling will force the hotter air at the bottom into an overall equlibrium ie hotter air will rise — or more correctly since GHGs have heated the air up more at the bottom, then the sun induced daily warming will add more heat to the top, & less at the bottom to force the equilibrium — ie effectively hot air rising even if not in actualit
If in exceeds out and the diffential MUST exist from top to bottom of the atmosphere, then before the hotter air can migrate to the
deep ocean, the daily temerature cycling will force the hotter air at the bottom into an overall equlibrium ie hotter air will rise — or more correctly since GHGs have heated the air up more at the bottom, then the sun induced daily
warming will add more heat to the top, & less at the bottom to force the equilibrium — ie effectively hot air rising even
if not in actualit
if not in actuality.
Regarding the
oceans:
If it is not surface heat that is
warming deep ocean water, what is?
Both Judith Curry and Gavin Schmidt have acknowledged that even
if Trenberth is right about global
warming being sequestered in the
deep ocean it doesn't matter because that sequestered heat can not undilute itself to
warm the atmosphere quickly — it comes out over a 10x longer period at 1 / 10th the orginal power i.e. what when in at 0.5 W / m2 in a decade comes out at 0.05 W / m2 over a century which is insignificant.
If there were no mixing in the
ocean, the
deep ocean would be a cold stagnant pool with a thin
warm surface layer.
May I explain that empirical research must replace the «radiation - only» theory of
warming; that is, it must
if Trenberth's idea of heat sequestered in the
deep oceans makes sense.
If the heat is hiding in the deep ocean it is not only unphysical, if true then it negates all arguments about runaway atmospheric warming anywa
If the heat is hiding in the
deep ocean it is not only unphysical,
if true then it negates all arguments about runaway atmospheric warming anywa
if true then it negates all arguments about runaway atmospheric
warming anyway.
However the 2nd law of thermodynamics would only be relevant
if we knew the rate at which the
deep ocean was
warming (or whatever area of the Earth was relevant at the time) was still below the «uniform» rate.
If polar vortices are driven further and further south, drawing up
warmer air from middle latitudes toward the pole and supplanting them with Arctic chill, then many nations might experience cooling, while the generally unmonitored Arctic Circle region experiences substantial restructuring of sea ice as well as surface
warming and
deep ocean warming too.
If you still think a cold atmosphere can
warm a (much)
warmer ocean surface (let alone the
DEEP oceans),
If you still think a cold atmosphere can
warm a (much)
warmer ocean surface (let alone the
DEEP oceans), I'm afraid you will believe anything as long as it has the «peer - reviewed» stamp on it.
I think that's probably wrong:
if La Niña puts more heat into the
deep ocean, then it's conceivable that a long sequence of La Niña events could depress the
warming trend for the duration of the sequence.
If greenhouse
warming shut down the globe - girdling current that sweeps heat into the northern North Atlantic
Ocean, he fears, much of Eurasia could within years be plunged into a
deep chill.
If the missing heat is indeed going into the
deep ocean,
warming it by.001 degrees, who cares?
If some of the ocean heat uptake during the last 20 years has shifted from the shallow and warm parts to the deeper and colder parts this would reduce the total thermal expansion even if the total heat flux into the oceans remained the sam
If some of the
ocean heat uptake during the last 20 years has shifted from the shallow and
warm parts to the
deeper and colder parts this would reduce the total thermal expansion even
if the total heat flux into the oceans remained the sam
if the total heat flux into the
oceans remained the same.
It is not that heat enters the
oceans which could reduce an increase in GMST, it is that colder
deeper water must rise to the surface
if warmer surface waters are being pushed downwards.
If Arctic waters become fresh this inhibits the flow of cold arctic waters to the depths
warming the
deep oceans.
@ - Goldie «Next — what evidence is there for
deep ocean warming and
if it is occurring how does that communicate with the weather to make it extreme?»
If deep - water formation is weakened or suppressed, the
deep ocean will
warm up more (Knutti and Stocker, 2000).
Next — what evidence is there for
deep ocean warming and
if it is occurring how does that communicate with the weather to make it extreme?
If there is
deep - water formation in the final steady state as in the present day, the
ocean will eventually
warm up fairly uniformly by the amount of the global average surface temperature change (Stouffer and Manabe, 2003), which would result in about 0.5 m of thermal expansion per degree celsius of
warming, calculated from observed climatology; the EMICs in Figure 10.34 indicate 0.2 to 0.6 m °C — 1 for their final steady state (year 3000) relative to 2000.
If the earth core is somewhere in the 5,000 to 10,000 deg C range; and the surface / lower troposphere is 15 deg C; and you say that the
deep oceans are at 4 deg C; and are sucking in «heat» from the
warm surface waters; where the hell is all that heat piling up down there.
If the global
warming signal can be masked for long periods by energy flows into the
deep oceans, presumably a spurious or exaggerated
warming signal can be created by flows in the opposite direction.
If somehow the extra energy had been going into the
deep ocean would this mechanism of «
warming» (whatever that is proposed to be?)
Of course,
if the air were to be
warmer than the
ocean surface then evaporation would take the extra energy required from the air rather than the water and that 1 mm
deep layer (0.3 C cooler than the
ocean bulk) would rise to the surface and dissipate but that doesn't happen often or for long.
Any significant remainder of sea level rise,
if their data is correct, would then show that there's
warming in the
deep oceans.
If the SST is
warmer, less CO2 will be transferred to the
deep ocean.
For example,
if water is being
warmed on the surface, and then that
warmer water is moved down to the
deep ocean due to trade winds during La Nina, changing equations to volume and total energy is unnecessary.»
Since it takes several hundred years for the
deep ocean water to cycle up to the top, where it can be
warmed up and lose CO2, it makes sense to suppose that
if a
warming event is initiated by something else (like changes in the amount and spatial distribution of incoming solar radiation,) the concomitant rise in atmospheric CO2 (which would enhance the initial
warming) might lag behind by several hundred years.
If the
ocean rise is a delayed response to past
warming, this means that heat previously sunken in
deep layers is now moving to upper layers... How might this happen?
«
If a lot of atmospheric carbon dioxide is absorbed and removed from the atmosphere by algae and then transported to the
deep ocean, then the atmosphere should theoretically stop
warming and get cooler.»
If the
ocean is becoming more energetic, then it's not unreasonable to expect this overturning to increase with the
warm water forced
deeper.
So,
if you have a large enough influx of cold water from the
deep ocean, it can cause the global temperature to decrease temporarily, even while the greenhouse component is acting to push the global temperature to be
warmer.
On average they are about 1 or 2 degrees
warmer than the atmosphere, so on average they transfer heat to the atmosphere, but this happens only at the surface so heat that has migrated below 700 meters, often considered the
deep ocean, is essentially out thermal communication with the atmosphere as
if had been sent into space.
If it takes over 100 - 200 years, as some estimate, to turn over the ocean the warming of the sea surface will continue to warm the deep ocean for decades even if the sea surface temp falls as long as the surface temp remains above the moving average temp for whatever the ocean turnover rate i
If it takes over 100 - 200 years, as some estimate, to turn over the
ocean the
warming of the sea surface will continue to
warm the
deep ocean for decades even
if the sea surface temp falls as long as the surface temp remains above the moving average temp for whatever the ocean turnover rate i
if the sea surface temp falls as long as the surface temp remains above the moving average temp for whatever the
ocean turnover rate is.
If heat flow into the
deeper ocean (under 300m) is driven independently of Global Average Surface temperature or the «greenhouse» effect, then we have no reason to suppose that the latter produces any «global
warming» at all.
Sea - level rise caused by thermal expansion (in the range of 10 to 30 cm per century) is likely to continue for centuries (even
if the
warming asymptotes to values close to CEW G by 2100) because of the time required for mixing of the heating to
deeper oceans.
I'm not at all sure how much
deep ocean OHC can increase through that mechanism but almost certainly it happens to some degree
if river runoff is
warmer and we already know land surface is
warming a lot faster than
ocean surface.