We can
define periods of
economic and market agreement and periods of discord by using timely variables, such as the New Orders series from the monthly Institute for Supply
Management (ISM) Report, to forecast the probability, at any time, of agreement between the economy and the market.5 Typically macro-based measures suffer from a significant lag in reporting as
well as frequent revisions, making them inferior to the immediacy of observing market data, month by month, day by day, even tick by tick.