They suggested this based on paleoclimate data from the Eemian period, when one
degree of warming seems to have done just that.
Not exact matches
Ocean temperatures between 82 and 86
degrees Fahrenheit
seem to be «ideal for the genesis
of tropical cyclones,» Emanuel says, «and as that belt migrates poleward, which surely it must as the whole ocean
warms, the tropical cyclone genesis regions might just move with it.
If all the brewery's CO2 could be stored in this way, the ethanol could become a biofuel to burn, one that actually reduces the amount
of CO2 in the air and that
seems to be one
of the last hopes on offer to keep global
warming below 2
degrees Celsius.
The good news is that extreme global
warming by century's end, anything above 3
degrees C or more,
seems «extremely unlikely,» in the words
of the IPCC.
Given that the
degree of under - estimation
of TCR using the Otto method
seems inversely correlated with the NH / SH
warming ratio, at least in the models used in Shindell (2014), it would
seem that the rather large NH / SH
warming ratio observed in the «real» earth system indicates a tiny to non-existent underestimation
of TCR when using those simple methods (e.g. Otto et al) in the real world.
A couple
of weeks ago we had a 70
degree day and it
seemed like
warmer spring weather was in the not too distant future so we started adding some spring like touches to our family room.
The water has been very
warm this week averaging at 29
degrees c. On some afternoon we have had a bit
of swell but towards the end
of the week it
seems to have calmed down a lot.
While I'm posting (I can see how you guys get into this) I'm also very uncomfortable with your notion
of «tacit knowledge:» it certainly
seems to be tacit knowledge in the blogosphere that the chances
of the climate sensitivity (equilibrium
warming on indefinite stabilization at 560ppm CO2, for the non-enthusiasts) being greater than or equal to 6
degrees are too small to be worth worrying about (meaning down at the level
of an asteroid strike).
I could even use the data you supply to argue it the other way — that is, the two minima you compare
seem quite different, yet both» 96 - ’97 and» 07 - ’08 are pretty hot periods globally, with 2007 for instance just a few hundredths
of a
degree warmer than ’97 in HadCRUT.
As I recall, the researchers, and Myles Allen in particular, emphasised the fact that the bottom end
of the range (ie the 2 in 2 - 11
degrees C) corresponded to previous predictions
of 2 - 5
degrees C. I
seem to remember that they said this gave strength to the prediction that there would be a
warming of * at least * 2
degrees C, but that there was a greater
degree of uncertainty at the top - end.
But in the second, he
seems fixated on the 2
degrees of warming ahead....
Not only that but it
seems clear the technology required to achieve the global target
of keeping global
warming to an extra 2
degrees, is numerous and diverse.
But it is true that they don't
seem to be addressing the question
of overall uncertainty as to whether, or to what
degree, increased CO2 emissions will translate into a
warmer climate long - term.
It just
seems to me that if you really don't think the climate should get more than 2
degrees warmer, then you kind
of have to be talking about geoengineering in one way or another.
While there is no surprise we get a
degree of warming with 2 W / m2
of forcing, you
seem not to accept any
of that as even possible and look for other sources to exceed the CO2 effect when none is needed.
R Gates wrote: «What you
seem to fail to realize though is that a few tenths
of a
degree of temperature spread out in the ocean equates to eventual huge temperatures in the atmosphere when that heat is released» ----------------------------------- By what possible mechanism can a release
of heat from the ocean
warm the atmosphere to a higher temperature than that
of the ocean surface, as you
seem to be implying?
And I'm worried that if governments keep saying what they're doing is organized at stopping
warming at 2 -
degrees, then the people who are actually on the front lines
of climate change — coastal cities, farmers and so on — are going to think about preparing for a world that's 2
degrees warmer, when in reality the evidence
seem to suggest they should be preparing for a world that [has
warmed] a lot more than 2
degrees.
In an immensely complicated perhaps chaotic system, which nevertheless has been semistable for some billions
of years, it
seems to me that feedback must normally be negative, leading to less than 1
degree of warming.
Worse yet, on our present trajectory, it
seems highly unlikely that the
warming process will stop at 2 or even 3
degrees Celsius, meaning that later in this century many
of the worst - case climate - change scenarios — the inundation
of coastal cities, the desertification
of vast interior regions, and the collapse
of rain - fed agriculture in many areas — will become everyday reality.
It
seems obvious that one should list the factors and
degree of cooling for each and do the same for those that
warm.
BUT, the idea
of «those who have» all settling into their new, green, lifestyles while leaving the proles (who will never afford the new housing or the solar panels or even the replacement, more efficient boiler) to go cold, hungry, and without transport
seems to me a far greater danger to the future
of mankind than any
degree or two
of warming.
As a non-climatologist, it
seems logical to me that carbon dioxide emissions will cause global
warming in some form — but if global
warming meltdown starts in eight years» time, I will eat my copy
of Six
Degrees, appendices and all.
However, its analysis
seems premised on calculations relating to a 2C global goal, which given that Africa has historically
warmed 150 % compared to global averages, would mean an unthinkable 3.5
degrees of warming for the continent.
In summer that difference is even more spectular, maybe even up to 20
degrees C. Now, considering a global
warming rate
of 0.6
degree C per century
seems quite rediculous to me when I compare this to my own observations that happen during a period
of 48 hours or less.
The proposed rapid acceleration
of sea level rise when surface
warming has slowed (or stopped, if your prefer satellite data) and when ocean
warming is in the hundredths
of a
degree per decade range
seems very strange.
The bigger issue is that it is robustly unprovable or logical that so many negative effects will happen because
of a change in temperature
of even 2,3,4
degrees because as temperature has risen human life and other life
seems to benefit from
warmer climate.
It would
seem to me that if the science was settled, as you all claim, it should be very clear exactly how many
degrees the globe should
warm per ppm
of CO2.
The investment cost
seems to be around $ 1 trillion invested now per tenth
of a
degree warming theoretically averted by year 2100.
The upshot
of all the latest research, however, is that while limiting
warming to 2
degrees is
seeming unlikely, and 1.5
degrees nearly impossible, staying within something like 2.5
degrees still
seems quite possible if there's concerted action.
A couple
of weeks ago we had a 70
degree day and it
seemed like
warmer spring weather was in the not too distant future so we started adding some spring like touches to our family room.