Now the IPCC says that 50 % of warming is probably coming from humans and 50 % is natural variation so if we assume that 50 % of all the warming from 1850 to now is CO2 induced (which it is not, the bit from 1850 to 1950 is unlikely to be CO2 related) at best we causing just 0.77
degrees of warming due to mans gasses, and the other 0.77 degrees must be something else which won't necessarily accumulate.
If you want to assume that aerosols resulting from pollution produced by the burning of fossil fuels were responsible for the cooling evident from 1940 through the late 70's, then you have no reason to claim
ANY degree of warming due to CO2 forcing during any earlier period.
Not exact matches
But Jones is not sure if Manley did as well at capturing slower changes,
of a few tenths
of a
degree over decades, which is important for detecting the onset
of warming due to the burning
of fossil fuels.
Warming of 0.6
degree C (one
degree F) is already guaranteed for this century,
due to the CO2in place, which will remain there for centuries.
But now it appears the energy balance has become slightly lopsided
due to a buildup
of greenhouse gases,
warming our planet overall by about 0.8
degrees in the past 50 years.
The ambitious goal
of limiting global
warming to 1.5
degrees compared to pre-industrial levels may be compromised merely
due to the
warming caused by the reduction
of fine emission particles.
«I predict that
due to the loss
of these atmospheric whirlpools, the average temperature on Jupiter will change by as much as 10
degrees Celsius, getting
warmer near the equator and cooler at the poles,» says Marcus.
Due to the Cayman Islands tropical climate and year round
warm water temperatures (between 78 and 84
degrees year round), these walls are richly covered with an abundance
of corals and sponges.
Between 1935 and 2007, the Arctic appears to have
warmed about half a
degree which, in the absence
of any other proven cause, I've assumed is
due to increased GHGs.
Yet AGW advocates claim that the doubling
of CO2 levels will invariably,
due to iron clad physical laws, result in 2
degrees (or more)
of global
warming.
Although the Met Office Hadley Center model projects extreme drying and
warming in the Amazon
due to ongoing climate change, and there may even be a commitment to long - term decline
of part
of the Amazon forest even at just 2
degrees global
warming above pre-industrial, other climate models show less
of a drying or even none at all.
«I predict that
due to the loss
of these atmospheric whirlpools, the average temperature on Jupiter will change by as much as 10
degrees Celsius, getting
warmer near the equator and cooler at the poles,» says Marcus.
How can the ideal gas law predict a trivial change in temperature (
due to the change in air density by substituting CO2 for oxygen) when the GCMs predict global
warming of 4 to 11
degrees?
More CO2 would be better for both plants and animals, and any putative
warming due to human emissions would be an extremely tiny fraction
of one
degree C.
Since 1951, Earth's climate has
warmed by about 0.6
degrees Celsius, and researchers assessing the state
of climate science for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are 95 percent certain that more than half
of the
warming is
due to human emissions
of greenhouse gases.
when you can design a model that can even predict a temperature profile
of: a 4
degrees of freedom, rotating sphere, that is
warmed by the output
of a non-linear external heat source, and that is covered in a thermodynamic fluid that is constantly in motion with non-linear chaotic Beyesian characteristics — and then throw in variability
due to non-linearity behavior
of an element that can cause both positive and negative feed - backs
due to the existence
of it's three phases; liquid, vapor and solid....
Please explain exactly how a 1/2
of one
degree change accounts for the wildlife changes you claim have occurred
due to global
warming.
In the interview, Michaels claims that in the 100 years since the date
of publication
of the newsletter, the global temperature has only risen 1
degree Celsius with peak
warming taking place in 1998
due to El Nino «and a very active sun.»
«The direct
warming due to doubling CO2 levels in the atmosphere can be calculated to cause a
warming of about one
degree Celsius.
''... between 0.06 and 0.1
degrees Celsius, a very small fraction
of the
warming we're
due to experience as a result
of human activity.»
``... 99 percent confident that the world really was getting
warmer and that there was a high
degree of probability that it was
due to human - made greenhouse gases.»
It concluded that
due to the amount
of human carbon emissions in the atmosphere, the planet has reached 3 to 7
degrees Celsius
of global
warming.
R. Gates says: Certainly though, to a very high
degree of certainty, the current string
of warm years (the last decade being the
warmest on record) is very likely (probability at least 95 %)
due to a large
degree to the current effects
of the Anthropocene, with GH gases leading the way.
The report predicts a rise in global temperatures
of between 0.3 and 4.8
degrees Celsius (0.5 to 8.6 Fahrenheit) and a rise
of up to 82 cm (32 inches) in sea levels by the late 21st century
due to melting ice and expansion
of water as it
warms, threatening coastal cities from Shanghai to San Francisco.
(2) It implies there is an autonomous thermal gradient raising the surface temperature even more than that «33
degrees of warming» supposedly
due to an imaginary GH effect.
Laura Yes, the entropy conditions spelled out by the Second Law
of Thermodynamics establish the fact that water vapour reduces the
warming due to gravity from about 50
degrees back to about 33
degrees.
«More than half» means as much as 0.299999
degrees of that
warming may well have been
due to natural change.
Four months after the Paris international climate agreement, and two weeks before the agreement is
due to be signed, European energy ministers are showing little sign
of keeping in line with the 1.5
degrees limit on global
warming, according to the organisations.
I always thought that the surface
warming of an aircraft (several hundred
degrees - worth on Concorde), was
due to the increased number
of molecules hitting the airfame, and not the individual molecule's increased velocity..
You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths
of a
degree,
due to a small
warming drift we have identified in one
of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments.
We use the equations in (Rahmstorf, S. 2007), and allow users to examine the impact
of higher or lower future SLR per
degree of warming through a sensitivity parameter, so that users can examine, for example, the impact
of higher future rates
of SLR
due to accelerating melt and calving from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.
Furthermore, with the recent increases
of late season hurricanes reaching the northeastern region
of the United States, Irene in 2011 and Sandy's recent landfall in New Jersey on October 29, 2012 and the record breaking temperatures we are now seeing in the western United States where temperatures are reaching within a few
degrees of the hottest recorded temperature on earth, 134
degrees Fahrenheit, are more evidence that the global climate is changing possibly
due to global
warming.
A lot
of people trying to downplay all this are saying it's all
due to El Niño, but we know that's not the case; it accounts for only a fraction
of a
degree of warming.
I would agree that the science is good for a first proposition that the world is
warming some, and that a part
of that is
due to CO2, and that we will see some more man - made
warming in the next century, on the order
of about a
degree C (if the sun doesn't do anything radical).
If a place is ten
degrees above normal at a time
of one
degree of global
warming, it does not make sense to say that one
degree is
due to climate change, and nine
degrees «would have happened anyway», even in a statistical sense.
Although not a focus
of this study, the
degree to which the oceans themselves have recently
warmed due to increased GHG, other anthropogenic, natural solar and volcanic forcings, or internal multi-decadal climate variations is a matter
of active investigation (Stott et al. 2006; Knutson et al. 2006; Pierce et al. 2006).
If projects can be designed for +135
degrees (f) in the desert and -60
degrees (f) in the arctic, the range
of temperature increase
due to global
warming can be easily considered.
The ambitious goal
of limiting global
warming to 1.5
degrees compared to pre-industrial levels may be compromised merely
due to the
warming caused by the reduction
of fine emission particles.
It remains true that Earth has
warmed more than 1
degree farenheit
degrees over last century largely
due to the buildup
of human - made greenhouse gases... it remains the case that the projections
of future climate change are every bit
of discouraging as they were before the recent flap began.»
The earth is clearly 10
degrees warmer than what a perfect black - body should measure given the input solar radiation, and the variations in absorptivity along the spectrum are the only explanation
due to the isolated nature
of the earth in its environment.
This audit demonstrates that it was common for observers to ignore the instruction to record precise Fahrenheit fractions, with many rounding down or up to the whole.0 F. Torok et al acknowledge that if the practice
of truncating down to the whole
degree was common, there would have been an «artificial
warming» in the early 1970s
due to the temperatures before metrication appearing to be lower than they actually were.
Since the LIA was about a
degree cooler than late 20th century and it can take the oceans 300 years or more to recover by 1
degree, some portion
of the
warming is «likely»
due to a return to «normal».
If laypeople could clearly understand which sort
of extreme weather events are being caused by a world that has
warmed over an entire
degree due to industrial activity, they may be more inclined to approve
of public policy designed to mitigate those events.
[Response: Your argument misses the point in three different and important ways, not even considering whether or not the Black Hills data have any general applicability elsewhere, which they may or may not: (1) It ignores the point made in the post about the potential effect
of previous, seasonal
warming on the magnitude
of an extreme event in mid summer to early fall,
due to things like (especially) a depletion in soil moisture and consequent accumulation
of degree days, (2) it ignores that biological sensitivity is far FAR greater during the
warm season than the cold season for a whole number
of crucial variables ranging from respiration and photosynthesis to transpiration rates, and (3) it ignores the potential for derivative effects, particularly fire and smoke, in radically increasing the local temperature effects
of the heat wave.
The idea was that if an event is far out
of the ordinary but fits a global
warming model very closely, a
degree of probability can be assigned regarding the likelihood that the event was in fact
due to global
warming.
Model studies and theory project a 3 - 5 % increase in wind - speed per
degree Celsius increase
of tropical sea surface temperatures»; and «If the projected rise in sea level
due to global
warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.»
Improved estimation
of the
degree of temperature rise
due to global
warming - An improved estimate
of climate sensitivity -
The logic is clear: If the Earth has already
warmed more than we thought
due to human activities, then there's even less remaining carbon dioxide that we can emit and still avoid 2
degrees of warming.
Furthermore, on committed
warming: Even though
warming is only 7 / 10ths
of a
degree so far, we are committed to almost 1.5
degrees Celsius
due to how long it will take the oceans to catch up.
Our new peer - reviewed study, published by the National Academy
of Sciences, makes clear that while average global temperature has been steadily rising
due to a
warming climate (up about 1.5
degrees Fahrenheit in the past century), the extremes are actually becoming much more frequent and more intense worldwide.