This is an interesting question — if 2
degrees of warming represents an unacceptable risk of a runaway climate and global collapse, how much risk do we want to take?
Not exact matches
Two decades after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, most governments have agreed that limiting the increase in the average surface temperature
of the Earth to 2
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would
represent a tolerable amount
of global
warming.
So while the CPP may be political ambitious, it
represents is only a small piece
of what needs to be a more aggressive climate mitigation portfolio to align us with 2
degrees C
warming scenarios that avoid dangerous climate change.
=== > The «C3» horizontal dark green line is placed at zero
degree change; vertical red dashed lines
represent the beginning
of periods with extreme high frequency
of warming adjustments; and cyan vertical dashed lines periods
represent the beginning
of periods with extreme high frequency
of cooling adjustments.
That
represents nearly 18 percent
of what the world has emitted since the start
of the Industrial Revolution — or more than one third
of what can be safely burned and still keep global
warming within 2
degrees Celsius.
Yep, no matter how one slices and dices the 5 - year average
warming amounts, the modern era's
warming represents an increase not even one - tenth
of a
degree greater than the pre-1950
warming — it is not only a statistically worthless difference, it is completely climate insignificant.
Doing so would
represent a fairer share
of global emission reductions, ensure the country takes full advantage
of its mitigation potential, and increase the chance
of limiting
warming to below 2
degrees C, to help avoid the most extreme climate change impacts.
The 24X1022 Joules
represent, in the scheme
of things, a tiny
warming of the oceans - a barely measurable total
of +0.09 C
degrees over 55 years.
Two decades after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, most governments have agreed that limiting the increase in the average surface temperature
of the Earth to 2
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would
represent a tolerable amount
of global
warming.
However, Fullerton continued, «It is clear that business as usual with regard to our fossil fuel based energy system takes us well past 2
degrees of warming and
represents a clear and immediate threat to the future
of civilization.
«While 0.45
degrees C
of warming is noticeable in climate terms, it isn't obvious that it
represents an impending disaster»
Lets postulate for a moment that the temperature record
of the entire planet since 1880 that NASA used to identify 2014 as the
warmest is pristine, with 0.01
degree resolution and 0.01
degree standard deviation (necessary to conclude that a +0.02
degree anomaly
represents a record).
In Bill McKibben's Rolling Stone article on Global
warming's terrifying new math, McKibben notes that we can emit no more than 565 gigatons
of CO2 into the atmosphere by 2050 if
warming is to be kept within the 2
degrees margin which
represents an upper border to what our ecosystems can adapt to without disruptive change.
The Heartland Institute, a Chicago organization, issued a document last week saying that any additional global
warming would likely be limited to a few tenths
of a
degree and that this «would not
represent a climate crisis.»
In his point # 6 (Scale
of Task), he states: «Scientists describe
warming of two
degrees Celsius (2C) not as the boundary for dangerous climate change, but as
representing a boundary between dangerous and extremely dangerous CLIMATE CHANGE, pointing to a safe boundary as being under 350 parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent (ppm CO2e), more than 120 ppm CO2e below the current level.
If the low altitude cloud cover increased by only 1 % per
degree of warming, this would
represent -0.48 W / m ^ 2K, more than canceling out the ice - albedo effect (for comparison, Spencer et al. measured — 6.1 W / m ^ 2K or over ten times this impact)..