And conversely, the IPCC claim that greenhouse gasses may have caused as much as 1.3 degrees of warming, and that aerosols and natural variability could cause as much as 0.1 degree more each, giving us 1.5
degrees of warming since 1951.
Kevin, to put that diagram into perspective, if you look at GISS LOTI, there has been abou 0.9
degrees of warming since 1911 (the lowest point on the WUWT plot), so the difference between GISS products accounts for less than 10 % of the observed warming.
Not exact matches
The January - to - March quarter was the nation's
warmest three - month start
since at least 1895, with an average temperature
of 42.01
degrees Fahrenheit — six
degrees warmer than the long - term average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
• 2/3 cup
warm water (110
degrees F / 45
degrees C) • 1 teaspoon active dry yeast • 1 teaspoon white sugar (used Sucanat) • 2 cups all - purpose flour (I used kamut flour, whole wheat works fine too) • 1 teaspoon salt • 1/4 cup ghee (
since I doubled I used 1/4 cup oil and 1/4 butter) • 2 tablespoons plain yogurt (used goat yogurt) • 1 1/2 tsp garlic powder (don't double this... it was for 4 cups
of flour) DIRECTIONS 1.
The study also shows that an additional summertime
warming factor
of 2.2
degrees Fahrenheit is needed to explain the unusually strong melting observed
since the 1990s.
Cuffey developed a technique to combine these temperature measurements, which are smoothed as a result
of heat diffusion in the ice, with isotopic measurements
of old ice to come up with an estimated temperature
of 11.3
degrees, plus or minus 1.8
degrees Celsius,
warming since the depths
of the ice age.
The BBC team used clever analogies and appealing graphics to discuss three key numbers that help clarify important questions about climate change: 0.85
degrees Celsius — how much the Earth has
warmed since the 1880s; 95 % — how sure scientists are that human activity is the major cause
of Earth's recent
warming; and one trillion tons — the best estimate
of the amount
of carbon that can be burned before risking dangerous climate change.
The Obama administration played a key role in securing the Paris Agreement, to keep global
warming to no more than 2
degrees Celsius
since the start
of the Industrial Revolution.
Since the surface is a few tenths
of a
degree cooler than the water below, when a wave breaks, the
warmer water beneath (orange and red) mixes with the cooler water above (blue and violet).
What's more,
since this calculation does not take into account any
of the feedbacks likely to amplify the effect, well under 5000 TW may produce this
degree of warming.
As Pat Michaels, a climatologist and self - described global
warming skeptic at the Cato Institute testified to Congress in July, certain studies
of sensitivity published
since 2011 find an average sensitivity
of 2
degrees C.
He estimates that increasing amounts
of soot (combined with thinning sulfate) caused at least 45 percent
of the 2.7 -
degree Fahrenheit
warming observed in the Arctic
since the mid-1970s.
Our planet has
warmed by 1
degree Fahrenheit
since the beginning
of the century, but for reasons that aren't entirely clear, the Antarctic Peninsula — the stretch
of land that reaches up toward South America — has
warmed 4.5
degrees in just the past 50 years.
Of the 0.55 degree Celsius warming since 1860, 0.36 degrees Celsius have occurred since 1970, and the solar irradiance can only account for less than a third of this ris
Of the 0.55
degree Celsius
warming since 1860, 0.36
degrees Celsius have occurred
since 1970, and the solar irradiance can only account for less than a third
of this ris
of this rise.
U.S. satellite data
since 1979 has revealed that the troposphere — the weather - bearing layer
of our atmosphere that extends more than seven miles up —
warmed the most, by roughly 1.5
degrees Fahrenheit, in the middle latitudes.
The initial version
of the graph [left] drawn in 2001 had the risks
of climate change beginning to appear after 3.6 or 5.4
degrees F (2 to 3
degrees C)
of warming, but the years
since have shown that climate risks kick in with less
warming.
The public, press and policy makers have been repeatedly told that three claims have widespread scientific support: Global temperature has risen about a
degree since the late 19th century; levels
of CO2 in the atmosphere have increased by about 30 % over the same period; and CO2 should contribute to future
warming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s recent report said the rate
of warming over the past 15 years has been 0.05
degrees Celsius per decade — quite a bit smaller than the 0.12
degrees per decade calculated
since 1951.
A 2016 study in the journal Nature Geoscience found that sulfate aerosol reductions in Europe
since 1980 could account for as much as a half -
degree Celsius
of warming observed in the Arctic between 1980 and 2005.
A doubling
of CO2 from 300 ppm in 1880 to 600 ppm in 2100 has a best estimate
of 1.8
degrees (scenario B1) or about 2.3
degrees warming since 1880, which happens to be precisely the sensitivity figure given by Schmittner et al..
The public, press and policy makers have been repeatedly told that three claims have widespread scientific support: Global temperature has risen about a
degree since the late 19th century; levels
of CO2 [carbon dioxide] in the atmosphere have increased by about 30 percent over the same period; and CO2 should contribute to future
warming.
We humans have caused 1.3
degrees Fahrenheit
of global
warming since we started burning coal in 1750.
It gives a rate
of warming of some 0.07
degrees C / decade and a total rise in surface temperature
of some 0.4
degrees C
since 1944.
Clearly, there is very close agreement between the Berkeley analysis and the
warming trends reported by the major three climate groups, that is a rise
of around 0.7
degrees C
since 1957.
Firstly, the overall
warming of the globe
of nearly 1
degree C
since 1900 is hardly «slight».
While it has gotten about one
degree warmer since 1900, there is no clear evidence that current climate is anywhere outside
of natural variability, and mankind is, at this time, successfully living in climate extremes ranging from the far North to the Equator where climate differences are much more than 3C.
The details differ (mostly within the uncertainty bounds given by Mann et al, so the difference is not significant), but all published reconstructions share the same basic features: they show relatively
warm medieval times, a cooling by a few tenths
of a
degree Celsius after that, and a rapid
warming since the 19th Century.
The core finding is that temperatures over the continents have
warmed about 1
degree Centigrade (1.8
degrees Fahrenheit)
since 1950, matching earlier independent analyses by American and British climate researchers that had been repeatedly attacked by climate skeptics and opponents
of curbs in greenhouse emissions.
Total anthropogenic emissions
of one trillion tonnes
of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes
of CO2), about half
of which has already been emitted
since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon - dioxide induced
warming of 2
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5 — 95 % confidence interval
of 1.3 — 3.9
degrees Celsius.
Natural internal variability and natural external forcings (eg the sun) have contributed virtually nothing to the
warming since 1950 — the share
of these factors was narrowed down by IPCC to ± 0.1
degrees.
However, it has been known
since the earliest general circulation simulations by Manabe that as the Earth
warms in response to increasing CO2, the precipitation increases much more slowly than Clausius - Clapeyron would suggest — typically only 2 - 3 % per
degree of warming.
After using satellite data and a smart statistical method to fill gaps in the network
of weather stations, the global
warming trend
since 1998 is 0.12
degrees per decade — that is only a quarter less than the long - term trend
of 0.16
degrees per decade measured
since 1980.
What is clear is that uncontrolled emissions will very soon put us in range
of temperatures that have been unseen
since the Eemian / Stage 5e period (about 120,000 years ago) when temperatures may have been a
degree or so
warmer than now but where sea level was 4 to 6m higher (see this recent discussion the possible sensitivities
of the ice sheets to
warming and the large uncertainties involved).
UAH shows
warming of 0.13
degrees per decade
since 1979 (the least
of any series).
Since 1951, Earth's climate has
warmed by about 0.6
degrees Celsius, and researchers assessing the state
of climate science for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are 95 percent certain that more than half
of the
warming is due to human emissions
of greenhouse gases.
Based on the GISP2 ice core proxy record from Greenland it has previously been pointed out that the present period
of warming since 1850 to a high
degree may be explained by a natural c. 1100 yr periodic temperature variation (Humlum et al., 2011).
In the interview, Michaels claims that in the 100 years
since the date
of publication
of the newsletter, the global temperature has only risen 1
degree Celsius with peak
warming taking place in 1998 due to El Nino «and a very active sun.»
The only actual
warming since the satellites started operating is a step
warming that began with the 1998 super El Nino, raised global temperature by a third
of a
degree in four years, and then stopped.
Human activities, such as burning coal and oil and cutting down tropical forests, have increased atmospheric concentrations
of heat - trapping gases and caused the planet to
warm by 1.4
degrees Fahrenheit
since 1880.
All this Global
Warming if you plot it on a graph with the vertical y - axis incremented in whole
degrees you could free hand a straight line starting from the end
of the Little Ice Age all the way to the current day and see there has been no dramatic global average temperature change
since the turn
of the 19th century.
By measuring changes in winds, rather than relying upon problematic temperature measurements, Robert J. Allen and Steven C. Sherwood
of the Department
of Geology and Geophysics at Yale estimated the atmospheric temperatures near 10 km in the Tropics rose about 0.65
degrees Celsius per decade
since 1970 — probably the fastest
warming rate anywhere in Earth's atmosphere.
The Berkeley Earth analysis shows 0.911
degrees Centigrade
of land
warming (+ / - 0.042 C)
since the 1950s.
It suggested that a two - thirds chance
of keeping
warming below two
degrees required the world to limit its total carbon emissions
since 1860 to no more than a trillion tons
of carbon.
Since the end
of the Little Ice Age in the 1880s, the planet has
warmed by about 0.8
degrees C.
Together, these effects explain a measured decline in the upper ocean
warming of 0.02
degrees Celsius
since 2003, say climate researchers
of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI.
«MOST people are under the impression global
warming has risen by about 0.8
degrees C
since the dawn
of the industrial age.
Specifically, 84 + / - 2 %
of respondents agreed that 50 % or more
of «global
warming since the mid 20th century» can be attributed to «human induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations»; while 86 + / - 2 % agreed that greenhouse gases had a moderate or strong
warming contribution to the «reported global
warming of ~ 0.8
degrees C
since pre-industrial times».
Do sunspots explain about 0.15
degree C
of warming since the little ice age?
It makes up most
of that 0.8
degrees Celsius
warming since 1880 that IPCC keeps referring to.
The top 75 meters have
warmed an average
of.01
degrees C per year
since 1971.