It's just that simple, and no value of climate sensitivity reduces that obligation, nor is the value of the risk
dependent on climate sensitivity but on the price determined by the law of supply and demand.
All this is of course
dependent on the climate sensitivity and the damage that the climate change will bring with it.
On the issue of to what extent attribution «evidence» derived from GCMs / AOGCMs (the validity of which is
dependent on their climate sensitivities being realistic) can be relied on, three academics who have published extensively on climate sensitivity, Chris Forest, Peter Stone and Andrei Sokolov, wrote about GCMs in «Constraining Climate Model Parameters from Observed 20th century Changes» (Tellus A, 2008) as follows:
Not exact matches
At any given point in time
climate sensitivity is
dependent on which, if any, tipping points have been breached.
It seems that the ice age
climate constraining a 2xCO2 doubling Climate Sensitivity is dependent on the assumption that the sensitivity is linear in the entire range of CO2 values from ice age levels (much below present) to 2x preindustrial
climate constraining a 2xCO2 doubling
Climate Sensitivity is dependent on the assumption that the sensitivity is linear in the entire range of CO2 values from ice age levels (much below present) to 2x preindustrial
Climate Sensitivity is dependent on the assumption that the sensitivity is linear in the entire range of CO2 values from ice age levels (much below present) to 2x preindustr
Sensitivity is
dependent on the assumption that the
sensitivity is linear in the entire range of CO2 values from ice age levels (much below present) to 2x preindustr
sensitivity is linear in the entire range of CO2 values from ice age levels (much below present) to 2x preindustrial values.
In addition to
climate sensitivity being depenent
on climatic state, there is also the fact that radiative forcing, for the same change in optical properties / composition, is
dependent on climatic state.
«The large - scale winds would look better because the release of latent heat drives a lot of those winds, and
climate sensitivity would be better constrained because not only is the base state highly
dependent on convective parameterization but the model predictions for future
climate change are also very sensitive to that as well.»
However the projections in the FAR were not very
dependent on the spread of model sensitivites — the «best estimate» was produced by comparing model experiments with observations and scaling to infer a
climate sensitivity of 2.5 ºC (2.1 ºC if compared to current 2xCO2 RF formulation).
Alex — You make valid points about some of the assumptions, but the point I would emphasize is that kappa was relatively constant between the models and so TCR was primarily
dependent on the feedbacks that determined
climate sensitivity, which is why it is a fairly good surrogate.
Additionally, there are two more recent studing arguing based
on tree ring data that after the conventional removal of the biological growth effect, trees do show an age -
dependent climate sensitivity.
Somewhere
on a previous thread there was discussion regarding whether
climate sensitivity was
dependent on initial conditions.
Finally, we use our estimated state -
dependent climate sensitivity to infer Cenozoic CO2 change and compare this with proxy CO2 data, focusing
on the Eocene climatic optimum, the Oligocene glaciation, the Miocene optimum and the Pliocene.
Neither is
climate sensitivity one to one
dependent on what the aerosol forcing is.