Sentences with phrase «derive from uncertainty»

The extra uncertainty is claimed to derive from uncertainty in the carbon cycle.

But, as positive as these two issues are - particularly for the SNP base - it's hard to see these outweigh the negatives that derive from the uncertainty of Brexit negotiations.

Not exact matches

The uncertainty relationship can in fact be derived from quantum theory without any reference to «disturbing the system».

95 % UI = uncertainty interval around the cost and DALY estimates, derived from multivariate sensitivity analysis propagating uncertainty around cost inputs, elasticity estimates, relative risks of disease outcomes and the prevalence of alcohol consumption.

The latest finding builds on work published in 2008 by Vinokur and his associates that experimentally established the existence of the superinsulating state, while also proposing that it «mirrors» the behavior that occurs in the superconducting state, deriving it from the most fundamental quantum concept, the uncertainty principle.

That number, according to Bruno Sicardy of the Paris Observatory, is hard to pin down exactly because timings derived from the three telescopes» light curves have some uncertainty.

Uncertainties for all annual upper - ocean heating rates are given at one standard error and are derived from OHCA uUncertainties for all annual upper - ocean heating rates are given at one standard error and are derived from OHCA uncertaintiesuncertainties.

Uncertainties for upper - ocean heating rates are given at one standard error derived from OHCA uUncertainties for upper - ocean heating rates are given at one standard error derived from OHCA uncertaintiesuncertainties.

For each planetary candidate, the equilibrium surface temperatures are derived from «grey - body spheres without atmospheres... [and] calculations assume a Bond albedo of 0.3, emissivity of 0.9, and a uniform surface temperature... [with uncertainties of] approximately 22 %... because of uncertainties in the stellar size, mass, and temperature as well as the planetary albedo.»

Typical instrument - related relative measurement uncertainties as derived from previous experiments are less than ± 6 % (for 0.9 > Φf > 0.1)[31].

The chapter «Devotional Pictures» compiles images that can be traced back to family photo albums, whereas the source images in the chapter «Continual Uncertainty» mostly derive from newspapers or magazines and reflect the zeitgeist.

Of course, the adjustment we are making has it's own uncertainty (this is derived from a single model after all) and that needs to be taken into account too.

Using a stochastic model of storm motion derived from historic tracks, this paper explores the relationship between lead time and track uncertainty for Atlantic hurricanes and the implications of this relationship for evacuation decisions.

We can derive the underlying trend related to external forcings from the GCMs — for each model, the underlying trend can be derived from the ensemble mean (averaging over the different phases of ENSO in each simulation), and looking at the spread in the ensemble mean trend across models gives information about the uncertainties in the model response (the «structural» uncertainty) and also about the forcing uncertainty — since models will (in practice) have slightly different realisations of the (uncertain) net forcing (principally related to aerosols).

Has anyone worked with the uncertainties of monthly values derived from the 20th Century Reanalysis product?

To elaborate slightly on my above point, the cause / effect relationship between CO2 and temperature derived from data spanning more than 400 million years, and operating within uncertainty margins that can be quantified with reasonable probability requires the existence of a prominent CO2 signal in the record of the past half century.

I think a lot of attitudes derive from the ambiguity and uncertainty of the conclusions reached by the science in it's current state of development.

You have to remember that the 5 year forecast is derived from a large number of individual runs each with slightly different starting conditions matching the range of the observational uncertainty in the real starting conditions.

However, the physician has not derived his estimate of uncertainty from a computer model with no predictive validity.

As noted above, the uncertainty estimates derived from a particular analysis will tend to underestimate the true uncertainty because they are conditional on the analysis method being correct.

Similarly velocities derived from surface waves reflect lithospheric cooling although there is uncertainty in mapping from velocity to temperature (Ritzwoller et al., 2004).

The similarity of these observationally - based «NAO book - end» trend maps with those derived directly from the leading EOF of the set of 40 CESM - LE SLP trend maps (Fig. 2) attests to the robustness of the results, the utility of the method of Thompson et al. (2015) to estimate uncertainty in trends from the statistics of a Gaussian time series, and the fidelity of CESM's simulation of the NAO.

«The solar and volcanic forcings we use are derived from reconstructions based on proxy data and are therefore also subject to considerable uncertainties, although recent explosive volcanic eruptions are likely to have cooled climate, and independent records of solar activity levels inferred from the cosmogenic isotope 10Be (43) and geomagnetic records (44) provide support to reconstructions (22, 45) that show generally increasing solar activity during the 20th century (12).»

Might it be better to display the likelihood function from a radiocarbon determination (which would be identical to the subjective Bayesian posterior PDF based on a uniform prior) instead of a posterior PDF, and just to use an objective Bayesian PDF (or the SRLR) to derive the uncertainty ranges?

However, the largest contribution to uncertainty in future river flows comes from the variations between the GCMs used to derive the scenarios.

For these reasons I trust the sensitivity based on the paleo data far more than I trust the sensitivity based on the instrumental period, and that trust is vindicated by the level of uncertainty associated with the sensitivity derived from each.

Uncertainty in these trend values arises from different methodological choices made by the groups deriving satellite products (Mears et al., 2011) and radiosonde compilations (Thorne et al., 2011), and from fitting a linear trend to a time series containing substantial interannual and decadal variability (Santer et al., 2008; McKitrick et al., 2010).

[2] Uncertainty ranges for the predictions are derived from cross-validation based estimates of uncertainty in the relationships between the predictors and the futuUncertainty ranges for the predictions are derived from cross-validation based estimates of uncertainty in the relationships between the predictors and the futuuncertainty in the relationships between the predictors and the future warming.

If we wish to reason about certain questions on the basis of uncertainty ranges we need cdfs and hence knowlege of pdfs and for these we need some function, in this case a prior, to add that important aspect of density that can not be derived from the likelihood function that results from the application of a statistical model to the experimental evidence.

The shaded region envelops the ± 2 standard deviation uncertainty as derived from the validation period.

But is temperature uncertainty reported as if it derives from the average anomaly and not derived from the measured daily Tmin and Tmax?

The Uncertainty in the TAVE anomaly is underestimated because processes do not preserve the uncertainty derived from calculating the TAVE from the TMin and TMax meUncertainty in the TAVE anomaly is underestimated because processes do not preserve the uncertainty derived from calculating the TAVE from the TMin and TMax meuncertainty derived from calculating the TAVE from the TMin and TMax measurements.

The point I'm making (and I don't actually care if you don't like the roundabout way I'm making it), is that the PDF shown above uses an uncertainty estimate (± 0.2 ºC) that is far too low for anthropogenic warming because it's not acutally derived from any calculation of the components anthropogenic warming (i.e. ANT = GHG + OA).

To summarize, my argument here is that the uncertainty figure to use for anthro warming must be derived from what we can actually attribute to the components of anthro warming (GHG + OA), not what we assume must be anthro because we don't know how else to explain it.

The combination of non-standard instrumentation and sparseness of observations prior to 1910 make it impossible to construct a national mean temperature that is comparable to that derived from the modern network, and not subject to very large uncertainties.

This makes it impossible to derive an Australian - average temperature from a representative national temperature grid that is robust (not subject to very large uncertainties).

But it is very hard to understand how such large interval can be derived from the evidence IPCC itself gives: Palaeosens gives a likely 2.2 - 4.8, CMIP5 models is in the range 2.1 - 4.7 and the uncertainties in inter-annual feedback observation analysis is mainly from cloud feedbacks which is said to be «likely» positive.

This uncertainty derives from the complexities involved in modelling the whole Earth system (including the strength of feedbacks from clouds, etc.) and also from predicting the future path of human activities.

I, and evidently others who have posted at CA, have been at least somewhat surprised by the uncertainty in a number of conclusions coming out of climate science on the issue of AGW — and uncertainty that can be derived from some rather straight forward and simple analyses and observations.

The graph at right shows how much warmer each month is than the annual global mean (derived from the MERRA2 reanalysis over 1980 - 2015 with an uncertainty range).

[Response: I think there is some more information to be derived from this data, but the regional information has bigger uncertainties, and more internal variability.

This perspective (derived from my skin in the game work with CFAN) is very clear in my discussion of climate science, uncertainty, and overconfidence by the IPCC [https://judithcurry.com/category/uncertainty/]

Whereas, up to, say, the early - 1990s when legal publishing delivered greatly above average profitability and solid growth that resulted in little fear of redundancy derived from financial downturn, since then, some employees» uncertainty and anxiety have persisted, arguably for understandable reasons.

Because of this uncertainty, Professor Feldthusen is skeptical that survivors are both willing and able to finance civil litigation for the full length of time it requires, despite the benefits that could be derived from the process.

According to current literature, those elements serve primarily as stress buffers; they mitigate the uncertainty and ambiguity deriving from stressful.