The probabilistic analyses of DAI reported in this section draw substantially on (subjective) Bayesian probabilities to
describe key uncertainties in the climate system, such as climate sensitivity, the rate of oceanic heat uptake, current radiative forcing, and indirect aerosol forcing.
Not exact matches
The report is «Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some
Key Questions» (2001) and it
describes the great
uncertainty regarding AGW.
First, however, five
key sources of
uncertainty, as they relate to climate scenario construction, are very briefly
described.
An interesting feature of the report is Traceable Accounts — for each major conclusion a Traceable Account is given that
describes the
Key Message Process, Description of evidence base, New information and remaining
uncertainties, Assessment of confidence based on evidence.
Energy Commission staff has performed research on these topics and will briefly
describe some of the issues and
key uncertainties associated with these areas of the natural gas industry during the workshop.
Guidance developed by Moss and Schneider (2000) for the IPCC on dealing with
uncertainty describes two
key attributes that they argue are important in any judgment about climate change: the amount of evidence available to support the judgment being made and the degree of consensus within the scientific community about that judgment.