Trend line analysis can then be employed to
detect changes in the trend of RSI.
If you «use all of the data» you can't
detect any change in trend from forcings known to make a difference (e.g. sulfate aerosols, which peaked in the 1940 - 1970 range from US sources and again later from Chinese).
Not exact matches
«We did not
detect any clear
change in the long - term time
trends in the incidence of brain tumors from 1998 to 2003
in any subgroup,» the researchers wrote
in the paper, which was published online Thursday
in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute (JNCI).
Since
trends in convective rainfall are not easily
detected in daily rainfall records, or well - simulated by global or regional climate models, the researchers created a new tool to assess the effects of climate
change on rainfall patterns and
trends in dryland areas.
This magnitude of annual
change should be identified by using the methods suggested
in this paper and could be used
in future to
detect population
trends.
The new data provide a basis for
detecting future
change and analyzing
trends in surface water chemistry.
Just like us, each animal is slightly different so having these
trending values helps the doctor
in detecting subtle
changes that may indicate a health problem early before it starts to affect your pet.
UHI effects will generally lead to long term
trends in an affected station (relative to a rural counterpart), whereas micro-site
changes could lead to jumps
in the record (of any sign)-- some of which can be very difficult to
detect in the data after the fact.
«Thus, if climate
change effects are anticipated, or
detected in basin - wide storm statistics, sensible policy decisions should depend on the projected overall shift
in the probability of damage rather than on a high - threshold criterion for
trend emergence.»
«We caution that the question of when a statistically robust
trend can be
detected in damage time series should not be confused with the question of when climate - induced
changes in damage become a significant consideration...
Here is a discussion (with links to an earlier discussion) on seeing... and even «
detecting»... step
changes in synthetic data sets that we know for a fact have simply an underlying linear
trend plus noise: (snip.
Whether Parker's stations are
in «cool parks» or if there are other reasons for the lack of
trends differences, does not
change that he
detected no or minimal
trend differences.
Similarly,
trends in a certain kind of impact of that class of events can also be
detected and attributed, although the influence of other drivers of
change, such as policy decisions and increasing wealth, can make this challenging.
So far, no residual
trend, whether as a result of anthropogenic climate
change or otherwise, has been
detected in normalized US tropical cyclone damage.
In order to make the predictions that Laxon made, he would have to assume that any variation can only be accounted for by anthropogenic climate
change, and that the
trend it
detected would continue.
This is hardly surprising, since 23 years is not a very long time to
detect trends in natural hazard damages, whether such
trends are caused by demographics or by climate
change.
A
trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters is not only of interest to the insurance industry, but can potentially be useful for attempts at
detecting whether there has been an increase
in the frequency and / or intensity of natural hazards, whether caused by natural climate variability or anthropogenic climate
change.
«Consistent with previous analyses (see e.g. Montanari, 2012; Zanchettini et al., 2008),» they write, «our
trend detection analysis, which we carried out on long historical series observed for the Po river, does not
detect any evidence of a statistically significant
change in the flood hazard along the Po river and supports the stationarity of the hydrological series during the period of interest (i.e., last five decades).»
Applying the strict criteria, but for station exclusion, a host of stations would get knocked out of the reckoning and the confidence
in detecting small
trend changes would decrease.
* «UK rainfall shows large year to year variability, making
trends hard to
detect» * «While connections can be made between climate
change and dry seasons
in some parts of the world, there is currently no clear evidence of such a link to recent dry periods
in the UK» * «The attribution of these
changes to anthropogenic global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall.»
The inability to
detect and attribute increasing
trends in the incidence of hurricanes, floods, tornadoes and drought does not mean that human - caused climate
change is not real or of concern.
Our past work has shown that the lack of good observations
in many parts of the world can badly distort the
detected trend in model simulations, losing much of the underlying signal of anthropogenic
change.