Sentences with phrase «determine climate sensitivity»

Girma Orssengo rightly demonstrates that one can not determine climate sensitivity empirically from observed changes in CO2 concentration and in global mean surface temperature unless one either studies periods that are multiples of ~ 60 years to cancel the transient effects of the warming and cooling phases of the Pacific and related ocean oscillations or studies periods centered on a phase - transition in the ocean oscillations.

I think that Anthony, and any other person versed in science would agree that a mere 35 years is not a sufficient sample to determine the climate sensitivity for longer periods of time, like centuries.

It is a priori obvious that one can not determine the climate sensitivity from an incomplete energy balance over the tropics.

LC09 purported to determine climate sensitivity by examining the response of radiative fluxes at the Top - of - the - Atmosphere (TOA) to ocean temperature changes in the tropics.

From the observed behavior, he was able to determine the climate sensitivity, and found it to be substantially less than that in the vast majority of the climate models.

Indeed, any attempt to model the climate to a sufficient precision to determine climate sensitivity is doomed to failure by the fact that the climate object is not only complex and non-linear but also, mathematically speaking, chaotic.

It has been discussed also more widely, because the authors of many approaches to determine the climate sensitivity wish to split their results to the no - feedback part and to one or more feedback terms.

One doesn't need a climate model to determine climate sensitivity (Arrhenius and others managed to do so without climate models), one doesn't need a model to measure CO2 and the other GHGs and their sources, and one doesn't need a model to determine that a few degrees C increase leaves us with an ice - free planet with drowned cities.

In most cases, these range from about 2 to 4.5 C per doubled CO2 within the context of our current climate — with a most likely value between 2 and 3 C. On the other hand, chapter 9 describes attempts ranging far back into paleoclimatology to relate forcings to temperature change, sometimes directly (with all the attendant uncertainties), and more often by adjusting model parameters to determine the climate sensitivity ranges that allow the models to best simulate data from the past — e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).

As I said elsewhere, most of the predictors / observations used by BC17 are not phenomena that are related to dOLR / dTs and dOSR / dTs, the factors determine climate sensitivity.

The same problem enters also the method of Nic Lewis to determine the climate sensitivity using Jeffreys» prior.

In other words, these are 3D global simulations from which globally averaged TOA fluxes and temperatures are determined, which are then used to determine the climate sensitivity.

... While the satellite - based metrics for the period 2000 — 2010 depart substantially in the direction of lower climate sensitivity from those similarly computed from coupled climate models, we find that, with traditional methods, it is not possible to accurately quantify this discrepancy in terms of the feedbacks which determine climate sensitivity.

One major avenue of research strives to determine climate sensitivity by comparing varying CO2 concentrations with past climate change.

Using our model, anyone with a little knowledge of math and physics can determine climate sensitivity relative to CO2 concentration changes not unreliably by using nothing more complex than a pocket calculator.

Section 8.6 discusses the various feedbacks that operate in the atmosphere - land surface - sea ice system to determine climate sensitivity, and Section 8.3.2 discusses some processes that are important for ocean heat uptake (and hence transient climate response).

Paleoclimatologists determine the climate sensitivity from data from the Earth's history.

These models all suggest potentially serious limitations for this kind of study: UVic does not simulate the atmospheric feedbacks that determine climate sensitivity in more realistic models, but rather fixes the atmospheric part of the climate sensitivity as a prescribed model parameter (surface albedo, however, is internally computed).

Perhaps Rapp should apply his brilliant and omniscient mind to determining the climate sensitivity for doubling or trebling of CO2.

There's nothing fundamentally different in the methods used in determining the climate sensitivity.

BBD, «The net strength of positive feedbacks determines climate sensitivity.

The net strength of positive feedbacks determines climate sensitivity.

I would have thought that the pre-1900 surface temperatures are not likely to be important for determining climate sensitivity, because CO2 levels would still not then have risen that far from pre-industrial values.

The moderate range of variation in annual balance makes distinguishing which geogrpahic characteristics are most important in determining climate sensitivity difficult.

It seems to me that the issue is not so much that the IPCC AR4 chapter 9 authors have made an error in determination of the sensitivity in Fig 9.20, but rather that there is unacknowledged structural uncertainty in their methods for determining climate sensitivity (both statistical and physical / conceptual).

In the case of determining the climate sensitivity it's more difficult to judge, how informative it is, but again there are no good arguments to tell that it would be less informative than the other choices made by scientists.

Further, we refine the energy budget methodology for determining climate sensitivity to minimize the impact of natural internal variability on the estimate of climate sensitivity.

The GWPF report also notes that changes in cloud cover in a warming world are a key to determining climate sensitivity.

Alex — You make valid points about some of the assumptions, but the point I would emphasize is that kappa was relatively constant between the models and so TCR was primarily dependent on the feedbacks that determined climate sensitivity, which is why it is a fairly good surrogate.

There is one problem with determining the climate sensitivity based on CO2 feedback forcing.

Could you explain (or refer to a page that explains) what a «uniform prior» actually is, and what the alternative is, when determining climate sensitivity (or any other variable) given one or more «experiments»?

The TSD purports to rely on IPCC work as a basis for a supposed «sensitivity» of climate to increasing atmospheric C02, but fails to mention that the most recent IPCC report completely undermines any basis for determining climate sensitivity with the following statement: «No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.»

Recently Y10 investigated the physical processes involved in determining the climate sensitivity of the structurally different SMEs of HadSM3 and MIROC3, and found that while shortwave (SW) cloud feedback plays an important role for the difference in the ensemble mean and the spread of climate sensitivity in the two SMEs, the mechanisms which determine the spread in shortwave cloud feedback might be different between the two SMEs.

In addition, for the SW - and LW - Net and CRF, which are important variables determining climate sensitivity, MIROC3 - AS and NCAR - A are heavily biased and have slightly narrow distributions compared to the results from CMIP3.

The challenge, therefore, for climate scientists is to try and synthesize the evaluation of climate models with diverse skills in simulating important climate processes, using observations of those processes to assess their relative importance in determining climate sensitivity.

Perhaps Rapp should apply his brilliant and omniscient mind to determining the climate sensitivity for doubling or trebling of CO2.

It is good that the authors stress the importance of empirically determining climate sensitivity — a topic that CA returns to often.

Not exact matches

Researchers determined the extent of relative climate sensitivity in the reserves by looking at five factors: social, biophysical, and ecological sensitivity, and exposure to temperature change and sea level rise.

For scientists like Fasullo and co-author Kevin Trenberth, head of NCAR's climate analysis section, determining the climate's precise sensitivity to the CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere has been an unusually tough task.

Even if we could determine a «safe» level of interference in the climate system, the sensitivity of global mean temperature to increasing atmospheric CO2 is known perhaps only to a factor of three or less.

Dr. Benestad states: «In their formula for the calculation of the sun - related temperature change, the long - term changes are determined by Zeq, while their «climate transfer sensitivity to slow secular solar variations» (ZS4) is only used to correct for a time - lag.

In addition, our deficient understanding of aerosol forcing also hinders our ability to use the modern temperature record to constrain the «climate sensitivity» — the operative parameter in determining exactly how much warming will result from a given increase in CO2 concentration.

In their formula for the calculation of the sun - related temperature change, the long - term changes are determined by Zeq, while their «climate transfer sensitivity to slow secular solar variations» (ZS4) is only used to correct for a time - lag.

Sure, there might be a few papers that take climate sensitivity as a given and somehow try to draw conclusions about the impact on the climate from that... But, I hardly think that these are swamping the number of papers trying to determine what the climate sensitivity is, studying if the water vapor feedback is working as expected, etc., etc..

The real important question is what is Earth's climate sensitivity since this will determine if doubling the amount of CO2 (say, by 2100AD) will increase the temperature by 1 or by 5 °C, and whether CO2 is just plant food or also a pollutant.

In some sense, though, almost any known forcing is useful in inferring climate sensitivity, since the same feedbacks that determine the response to Milankovic also determine response to CO2, though the relative weightings of the different feedbacks are likely to be different.

The impact on climate when thinking «by 2100» depends not only on the sensitivity, but also on socio - economic pathways and carbon cycle uncertainties, which determine what the CO2 concentration will be.

They determine the probability of combinations of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing based on the fit between simulations and observations (see Section 9.6 and Supplementary Material, Appendix 9.

The paper also describes a new index for determining the sensitivity of the climate system to extra greenhouse gases.

He also mentioned that climate sensitivity is determined by a equation (change in Temp) / (1 - f).