Sentences with phrase «determine equilibrium climate»
The notion that the response to Pinatubo can determine equilibrium climate sensitivity is rather odd, and is not supported by evidence.
http://www.realclimate.org/ Not exact matches
Polar amplication is of global concern due to the potential effects of future warming on ice sheet stability and, therefore, global sea level (see Sections 5.6.1, 5.8.1 and Chapter 13) and carbon cycle feedbacks such as those linked with permafrost melting (see Chapter 6)... The magnitude of polar amplification depends on the relative strength and duration of different climate feedbacks, which determine the transient and equilibrium response to external forcings.
Due to computational constraints, the equilibrium climate sensitivity in a climate model is usually estimated by running an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed - layer ocean model, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is largely determined by atmospheric processes.
Previous reviews (6 ⇓ ⇓ ⇓ — 10) have defined «abrupt climate change» as occurring «when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause» (8), which is a case of bifurcation (i.e., one that focuses on equilibrium properties, implying some degree of irreversibility).
Also, it is very clear (from the SOD) that there is little dispute about the range of the TCR, but there is still uncertainty about the long tail of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, which (according to the SOD) is still kind of determined by an «expert consensus».
The TSD purports to rely on IPCC work as a basis for a supposed «sensitivity» of climate to increasing atmospheric C02, but fails to mention that the most recent IPCC report completely undermines any basis for determining climate sensitivity with the following statement: «No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.»
Nic Lewis in the post at BishopHill does a very nice empirically based sensitivity analysis following the general methodology of the Gregory et al (2002) heat balance change derived value of the equilibrium climate sensitivity, determining a value of ECS of 1.6 - 1.7 C.
The TCR of a model is determined by what appears to be a rather arbitrary calculation Starting with the climate in equilibrium, increase CO2 at 1 % per year until doubling (about 70 years).