Since average return over time is insufficient to
determine a safe withdrawal rate, it's fun to create simple «retirement models» from the data.
You would
determine a safe withdrawal rate, based on your expenses and asset base, and then start to slowly bleed your portfolio dry.
We determine safe withdrawal rates by making mathematical calculations.
I used the Year 30 SWR Retirement Risk Evaluator and the Year 15 SWR Retirement Risk Evaluator to
determine Safe Withdrawal Rates with final balances of 0 % and 100 %.
We determine Safe Withdrawal Rates from the historical record.
Standard deviations, which are important for
determining Safe Withdrawal Rates, also scale by the common factor.
Not exact matches
Also, when we talk about HSWR [Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates], we are talking about the future and making probabilistic analysis based upon valuations which
determine safe, reasonably
safe, 50/50, likely failure, etc..
Both the Trinity and Retire Early studies of
safe withdrawal rates (SWR) were retrospective studies which
determined what percentage
withdrawal rate left a positive portfolio balance (at least $ 1) at the end of a given period of time.
Once I have my «new» net worth value, I'll multiply that by a «
safe»
withdrawal rate (3.5 % in our example) to
determine the next year's paycheck.
I used my Super SVTVR Calculator L to
determine the P / E10 levels that would produce specified Year 30
Safe Withdrawal Rates at stock allocations of 20 %, 50 %, 80 % and 100 %.
And so it is obviously not possible to
determine whether a specified
withdrawal rate is
safe or not without taking into account the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins.
Ataloss argued that the reason why I say that the Old School
safe -
withdrawal - rate (SWR) studies are analytically invalid is that I don't approve of relying on historical stock - return data to
determine the SWR.
Gummy's (Peter Ponzo's) Database I have
determined Calculated Rates,
Safe Withdrawal Rates and High Risk Rates for each portfolio with and without rebalancing.