Sentences with phrase «deterministic forecast»
A deterministic forecast is a prediction or estimate about something that is based on fixed, predictable factors and does not involve any uncertainty or random variations. Full definition
Detail for the UK included deterministic forecasts for heatwave conditions from ~ 22/23 July, cooler and wetter through the middle third of August, and a very warm signal from ~ 2 Sept lasting most of the month.
judithcurry.com
My solar based long range forecast for 2014 included deterministic forecasts for negative NAO / AO and US Arctic outbreaks from around 7 Jan (for ~ 2 months), 10/11 Nov (for ~ 2 weeks), 26/27 Dec (for ~ 3 weeks).
The global deterministic forecast process is an initial value problem so the best analysis of time zero is critical for the best skill.
Part II: Probabilistic and deterministic forecast skill.
The NWS needs to get away from making deterministic forecasts, but then the public (or at least government officials) need to be educated in interpreting ensemble forecasts.
The NWS presents its forecast as a deterministic forecast (either from a single run of the model, or the ensemble mean), with a «range» or cone of uncertainty, that may be derived from the ensemble or from historical errors.