Our models compare and contrast multiple forecast scenarios so clients can assess the valuation impact
of different forecasts for revenue growth, margins and capital allocation strategies.
Which explains, by the way, why we get so
many different forecasts, based on so many different expectations, which make the market that superior voting and weighing machine described by Ben Graham.
As highlighted by Arbetter et al. in their contribution, in particular from the perspective of navigation in ice - covered waters, it is important to recognize differences
between different forecasting and remote - sensing approaches as to the definition of ice extent, location of the ice edge and related variables describing ice conditions.
In particular, he explained the bias dependency on the lead time, also known as drift, and distinguished between two approaches for bias adjustment (and not bias correction): a non-parametric, consisting in adjusting each forecast time separately, and a parametric approach, where a function to adjust
different forecast times at once is used.
Accordingly, the key difference between our DCF model and others is that we calculate the value attributable to equity shareholders over multiple (100)
different forecast periods or what we call Growth Appreciation Periods (GAP)[1].
Recent studies of western North Pacific intensity trends contradict one another because they use different intensity data records
from different forecast agencies.
eCast's value is derived from proprietary techniques developed by AER to quality control, analyze, and process the volumes of ECMWF ensemble forecast data; similar, yet
subtly different forecasts are transformed into valuable information.
This year, the Alfred Wegener Institute contributed estimates based on two
different forecasting methods for Arctic seasonal sea - ice, which produced similar results very close to the actual September minimum: in July, the AWI's dynamic forecasting model called for a September minimum of 4.93 million square kilometres, while its static model estimated an area of 4.74 million square kilometres.
The numeric average
of different forecasts can be argued to provide a sense of confidence that the government is not providing upward bias to its projections that would facilitate hitting its 2015 budget balance targets.
Assuming
a different forecast horizon would affect grading.
Moreover,
different forecasts may choose different indices as a proxy for the same asset class, thus influencing the return of the asset class.
Although our projection methods and the methods of the earlier study differ in many ways,
the different forecasts may occur because of our use of quantitative global trends in per capita crop demand that emphasize income - dependent dietary choices (Fig. 1) vs. their use of expert opinion of national and regional demand trends (10).
Based on ensemble forecasts from statistical or dynamical models, efforts are also needed for processing these forecasts, such as selection of ensemble members and combination of
different forecasts, with proper quantification of uncertainties.
Several days ago, Andy Revkin did a nice post querying a number of weather forecasters and researchers about the relative merits of
the different forecast models [link], particularly since everyone seemed to be paying attention to the European model (ECMWF) rather than NOAA's GFS model.