Gavin Schmidt describes the different approaches to the question, and why there are essentially two conclusions, both surrounded by
different kinds of uncertainty.
If American business owners are truly worried about the long - term prospects of the U.S. economy, they should be doing what the Argentines do: looking outside their borders to find markets in which there is less uncertainty — or at least
different kinds of uncertainty.
Frintrop creates
a different kind of uncertainty regarding the analog and the digital — not in the imagery, but in the making.
Not exact matches
But while falling complexity is a positive trend in terms
of reduced financial
uncertainty, the comparisons between
different kinds of firms is more revealing.
Different individuals will have different ways of valuing uncertainty in models etc, and this will reflect the results of these kinds of
Different individuals will have
different ways of valuing uncertainty in models etc, and this will reflect the results of these kinds of
different ways
of valuing
uncertainty in models etc, and this will reflect the results
of these
kinds of studies.
If she accepts that attribution is amenable to quantitative analysis using some
kind of model (doesn't have to be a GCM), I don't get why she doesn't accept that the numbers are going to be
different for
different time periods and have varying degrees
of uncertainty depending on how good the forcing data is and what other factors can be brought in.
They switch quickly among
uncertainties of vastly
different kinds, to cast doubt upon the understanding
of this science, and upon the recommendations which might be drawn from it.
There were legitimate debates between scientists working in this field about how reliable
different kinds of proxy data are and what are the limits, what are the
uncertainties, and then there were the dishonest attacks against the science.
Horatio has discovered that (lo and behold) a «Curry Cliff Quotes» site already exists (ThinkExist.com) though Horatio must admit that the Judith Curry who is quoted there may be (sure seems like) a
different one than the one who has been doing the blog shows recently (quoted at CurryQuotes) Here's an example
of the
kind of thing «ThinkExist Judith Curry» (aka «Thinking Judith Curry») says: «Even with imperfect data and some
uncertainty, it's hard to imagine what
kind of errors might be in the data set to give you a long - term trend.»
Given the
uncertainties that exist in such
kinds of preliminary studies, I believe it is more useful to point out that climate on decadal timescales may be quite
different from that expected only considering external radiative forcing (as in the IPCC).
Most organizations are very familiar with
uncertainty of many
different kinds and even qualitative guidance can have substantial value in the design
of robust adaptation strategies which minimize vulnerability to both climate variability and change.