Global climate models tend to give roughly similar estimates for the climate sensitivity, but there is nevertheless a spread between
the different model estimates.
To better assess confidence in
the different model estimates of climate sensitivity, two kinds of observational tests are available: tests related to the global climate response associated with specified external forcings (discussed in Chapters 6, 9 and 10; Box 10.2) and tests focused on the simulation of key feedback processes.
Not exact matches
Using a
different model, Van Biesbrock, Gao and Verboven
estimate a small loss in Canadian assembly jobs:
There are a wide range of
model estimates from which to choose, each capturing
different aspects of the ways in which the world works in reality.
The lower levels of baseline sugar sweetened drink consumption in the UK compared with the US may in part explain why the effect on obesity that we
estimate in the UK is much less than that
estimated in the US.12 The differences with respect to other
modelling studies may also be partly explained by their use of higher own price elasticity values for sugar sweetened drinks than we have calculated and used here.18 22 52 We can not make direct comparisons between the results of our study and the results of recent studies of the effect of reducing sugar sweetened drink consumption on body weight in children, 5 7 as the relation between energy balance and change in body mass index in children who are growing is
different from that in adults.
Using the Social Genome
Model, we
estimate the
different outcomes of adult income for children raised by continuously married parents and those raised by parents married for some or none of their childhood years.
Complex Forecasting
Models: ElectionForecast.co.uk (Chris Hanretty) Electoral Calculus (main and local election forecast) Forecast UK UK - Elect PME Politics (Patrick English) Nigel Marriot (Uniform Regional Swing + Tactical Voting Model) Chris Prosser (GE vote shares from Local elections vote shares) Lord Ashcroft (3 models based on different turnout esti
Models: ElectionForecast.co.uk (Chris Hanretty) Electoral Calculus (main and local election forecast) Forecast UK UK - Elect PME Politics (Patrick English) Nigel Marriot (Uniform Regional Swing + Tactical Voting
Model) Chris Prosser (GE vote shares from Local elections vote shares) Lord Ashcroft (3
models based on different turnout esti
models based on
different turnout
estimates)
How this
model works: As with my analyses of opinion poll figures in Ireland, constituency support
estimates for
different parties and groupings form the basis of the general approach taken with this analysis.
This
estimate, while in line with suggestions from previous linguistic studies, is a more robust result because it was found consistently in the majority of the
different statistical
models of evolution tested in this study.
Steven Sherwood of the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia, and his colleagues looked at why
different models give
different estimates of sensitivity.
Rogers says: «The way to test the
model and to become more accurate in our
estimates about the time between divergences is to add more information from
different DNA sequences.»
This dosing also exceeded the predicted human efficacious dose for AVI - 7288
estimated by three
different models based upon the nonhuman primate studies that demonstrated up to 100 percent animal survival, including a delayed time - to - treat setting.
Data from the clinical trials can be used in mathematical
models to
estimate the benefits and risks and of
different vaccination strategies.
The
model simulates HIV transmission and HIV care in the U.S.,
estimates the economic and epidemiologic consequences of incomplete or intermittent care, and explores the potential impact of
different interventions versus the status quo in care.
Also, the new mortality
estimates, while dramatically higher than the approximately 150,000 annual deaths attributed to climate change stress in WHO's last assessment in 2004, are not directly comparable to earlier studies, which relied on
different models and
different underlying scenarios.
They applied this data in
models as a baseline to
estimate future climate and vegetation scenarios based on
different temperature increases.
Colgan's team used two
different combinations of regional and global climate
models to
estimate how conditions might change at the camp's location in the future.
To make mortality
estimates, the researchers took temperature projections from 16 global climate
models, downscaled these to Manhattan, and put them against two
different backdrops: one assuming rapid global population growth and few efforts to limit emissions; the other, assuming slower growth, and technological changes that would decrease emissions by 2040.
Barthelemy says the
model could also come in handy for
estimating traffic delays, gas consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, so that urban planners and policy makers can better understand how those
different factors evolve as a city grows.
Because the climate
model already accounts for the amount of the sun's energy blocked by
different types of airborne particles, it was not a stretch to
estimate the particles» effects on solar energy.
Dr. Grover and his colleagues used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (from years 2003 to 2010) to develop a
model that
estimates the annual risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease in adults with
different body weights.
Using several
different models, they
estimated that by 2100, emissions from wildfires in California will grow by 19 to 101 percent.
I'd love to know what they did take into account in attempting to
model that period — must include astronomical location, sun's behavior, best
estimates about a lot of
different conditions — where the continents were, what the ocean circulation was doing, whether there had been a recent geological period that laid down a lot of methane hydrates available to be tipped by Pliocene warming into bubbling out rapidly.
To account for changes in observation times, the RSS group used a number of
different approaches and
models to try and
estimate what the temperature would have been if the measurement time remained constant.
Plugging their data into
models that account for the range of plastic waste entering the ocean via
different coastal populations, the researchers arrived at their
estimated 11.1 billion pieces of coral - entangling plastic.
Note that the old GISS
model had a climate sensitivity that was a little higher (4.2 ºC for a doubling of CO2) than the best
estimate (~ 3ºC) and as stated in previous years, the actual forcings that occurred are not the same as those used in the
different scenarios.
This involves a combination of satellite observations (when
different satellites captured temperatures in both morning and evening), the use of climate
models to
estimate how temperatures change in the atmosphere over the course of the day, and using reanalysis data that incorporates readings from surface observations, weather balloons and other instruments.
Also shown are the 5 to 95 % approximate ranges for two
estimates from the LGM (dashed, Annan et al., 2005; solid, Schneider von Deimling et al., 2006) which are based on
models with
different structural properties.
A combination of circumstances makes
model - based sensitivity
estimates of distant times and
different climates hard to do, but at least we are getting a good education about it.
I think you may be referring to ECS
estimate from
different approaches — complex
models and simple energy balance
models / energy balance calculations.
For instance,
models with
different parameterization strategies give very
different estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere necessary to raise Earth's surface temperature by 2 °C — with critical implications for policy decisions.
Full - complexity Earth system
models (ESMs) produce spatial and temporal detail, but an ensemble of ESMs are computationally costly and do not generate probability distributions; instead, they yield ranges of
different modeling groups» semi-independent «best
estimates» of climate responses.
For example, consider the following figure that compares how the growth
estimates from four
different models are related to the school share of students who are eligible for free or reduced price lunches.
The main findings were not affected when the study
estimated different kinds of
models and made the sample larger by including students that became eligible for a voucher in any year after the program initially started in 2007.
In particular, while it can not definitively identify the right
model to determine TPP effects, it does show how
different models change the
estimates of these effects and the
estimated confidence in them.
Rothstein's research has found that such
models can yield very
different findings for the same teacher from one year to the next, in part because 25 students or so are not a large enough sample size to create a reliable
estimate of a teacher's teaching ability.
«Researchers reanalyzed the LA Times data and came up with
different results, and I analyzed the NYC data, and even though NYC uses a pretty rich value - added
model that controls for lots of stuff, eliminating much of the bias, that means you're left with relatively noisy
estimates, that jump around a lot from year to year.»
There is a growing body of research that compares
estimates of teacher quality produced by
different models.
Response In a 2003 report, it was
estimated that over 400
different CSR
models have been adopted by schools nationally!
Importantly, two studies [21] calculate higher correlations between
estimates that use
different models than between
estimates that use
different exams.
This paper describes the school mobility rates for elementary and middle school students in North Carolina and attempts to
estimate the effect of school mobility on the performance of
different groups of students using student fixed effects
models.
Edgar Sanchez and Yan Zhou, writing for the ACT policy brief, have examined the effects of two
different models on
estimates of teacher effectiveness.
The EX
model delivers an EPA
estimated 35/39/37; the difference being due to additional equipment and
different wheels.
Estimating what HemaCare is worth is also not an easy exercise, and you can get wildly
different results based on what kind of
model you use.
Model specification choices such as when and how to shrink parameter estimates could result in different expected return outputs than are generated by the model used
Model specification choices such as when and how to shrink parameter
estimates could result in
different expected return outputs than are generated by the
model used
model used here.
Model specification choices, such as when and how to shrink parameter estimates, could result in different expected returns outputs than are generated by the model used
Model specification choices, such as when and how to shrink parameter
estimates, could result in
different expected returns outputs than are generated by the
model used
model used here.
Of course, you may want to
model a whole
different scenario range, but simply eyeballing the above table should yield reasonable EPS
estimates.
Applying six
different models here, we
estimate that CH4, NOx, CO and NMVOCs are respectively responsible for 44 ± 12 % (± 1 standard deviation range), 31 ± 9 %, 15 ± 3 % and 9 ± 2 % of the 1850s — 2000s ozone RF (Table 10).»
Furthermore, the value of 2.8 °C you mentioned is the best
estimate from an analysis of many
different models, the likely temperature rise for the A1B scenario is given as 1.7 - 4.4 °C by the IPCC, so our result is higher than the best
estimate, but well within the range of all IPCC
models.
Some of them are optimal fingerprint detection studies (
estimating the magnitude of fingerprints for
different external forcing factors in observations, and determining how likely such patterns could have occurred in observations by chance, and how likely they could be confused with climate response to other influences, using a statistically optimal metric), some of them use simpler methods, such as comparisons between data and climate
model simulations with and without greenhouse gas increases / anthropogenic forcing, and some are even based only on observations.