I will explore the potential for distinguishing among
different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes, illustrated by a particular case study.
In the case of the CMIP5 models, Weaver et al. (2012) showed that the behavior of the AMOC was similar over the 21st century under four very
different radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6; RCP4.5; RCP 6.0; RCP8.5 — these Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs] are detailed in Moss et al., 2010).
Each greenhouse gas has
a different radiative forcing formula, but the most important is that of CO2:
All natural variation is now occurring on
a different radiative forcing path.
This model took into account the different atmospheric lifetimes of different greenhouse gases and
the different radiative forcings of each gas, and also considered delays in the climate system caused primarily by the thermal inertia of the ocean.
Not exact matches
A study released last month in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres used three
different models to run the same SSCE scenario in which sea - salt engineering was used in the low - latitude oceans to keep top - of - atmosphere
radiative forcing at the 2020 level for 50 years and was then abruptly turned off for 20 years.
(C) potential metrics and approaches for quantifying the climatic effects of black carbon emissions, including its
radiative forcing and warming effects, that may be used to compare the climate benefits of
different mitigation strategies, including an assessment of the uncertainty in such metrics and approaches; and
, there is a lot of interesting stuff going on in Antarctica: the complexities of
different forcings (ozone in particular), the importance of dynamical as well as
radiative processes, and the difficulties of dealing with very inhomogeneous and insufficiently long data series.
They, too, assume an equivalence in
radiative forcing between GHG and aerosol, What they do is add
different estimates of the aerosol
radiative forcing to the GHG
forcing, while keeping the temperature response fixed at the observed recent warming.
[Response: There's some good thinking here, but I think you may have confused Gavin's discussion of the attempts by Andrae et al to infer climate sensitivity from recent warming with the question of whether there's a
different sensitivity coefficient for aerosol vs GHG
radiative forcing.
For example, we know the past CO2
radiative forcing to very high accuracy, but there are more uncertainties in the aerosol
forcing; applying a consistent climate sensitivity to both CO2 and aerosols, you can get a match to the observed record for a range of
different supposed aerosol
forcings, but you can't take it too far.
The LGM was a very
different world than the present, involving considerable expansions of sea ice, massive Northern Hemisphere land ice sheets, geographically inhomogeneous dust
radiative forcing, and a
different ocean circulation.
These phenomena — sun spots, a slightly
different earth orbit, a decrease in volcanic activity — intermittently warmed the region through increased
radiative forcing, and recently have been joined by a new
force: greenhouse gases.
Could the climate
forcing itself, such as increasing GHGs, affect parameterizations independently of the larger scale climate changes (for example, by changing thermal damping of various kinds of waves, or by changing the differences of
radiative effects between
different amounts and kinds of clouds)?
However, there is a good reason for this, and that is observation that
different forcings that have equal «
radiative» impacts have very similar responses.
I realise that the AR5
radiative forcing graph shows
different emitted compounds, but you seem to suggest that these emissions lead to a CO2 rise in the atmosphere.
[Response: It's probably also worth noting that the standard
radiative forcing is a diagnostic of what is going on designed so that
different forcing mechanisms can be usefully compared.
The
different scenarios have net
radiative forcing in 2010 (with respect to 1984) of 1.6 W / m2, 1.2 W / m2 and 0.5 W / m2 — compared to ~ 1.1 W / m2 in the observed
forcing since then.
We should underscore that the concepts of
radiative forcing and climate sensitivity are simply an empirical shorthand that climatologists find useful for estimating how
different changes to the planet's
radiative balance will lead to eventual temperature changes.
The main changes in
radiative forcing from the precessional cycle are in the latitudinal and seasonal distribution, not in the global mean, which is why the nature of the response can be expected to be
different from doubling CO2.
Different climates have different vertical temperature profiles (aside from horizontal and temporal temperature variations), which affects the radiative forcing that an amount and arrangement of greenhouse agents (CO2, CH4, etc, also, water vapor and clouds) w
Different climates have
different vertical temperature profiles (aside from horizontal and temporal temperature variations), which affects the radiative forcing that an amount and arrangement of greenhouse agents (CO2, CH4, etc, also, water vapor and clouds) w
different vertical temperature profiles (aside from horizontal and temporal temperature variations), which affects the
radiative forcing that an amount and arrangement of greenhouse agents (CO2, CH4, etc, also, water vapor and clouds) will have.
, there is a lot of interesting stuff going on in Antarctica: the complexities of
different forcings (ozone in particular), the importance of dynamical as well as
radiative processes, and the difficulties of dealing with very inhomogeneous and insufficiently long data series.
[Response: There's some good thinking here, but I think you may have confused Gavin's discussion of the attempts by Andrae et al to infer climate sensitivity from recent warming with the question of whether there's a
different sensitivity coefficient for aerosol vs GHG
radiative forcing.
[Response # 2: The standard for comparing responses across
different models is to look at the
radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere — for 2xCO2 it is around 4 W / m2 (read the new National Academies report on this for a much more detailed discussion of the concept).
The effect is a continuum of
different absorption spectra that all have the same band - widenning per doubling and same effects at the center at various stages between no effect and saturation, though they are at
different stages in that process for any given amount of CO2; the
radiative forcing is a weighted average of the effects of each of those absorption spectra; once the center of the band is saturated for all of the spectra, the band widenning effect is the same for each and thus the
forcing from the band widenning is the same as it is in the original simplified picture.
They, too, assume an equivalence in
radiative forcing between GHG and aerosol, What they do is add
different estimates of the aerosol
radiative forcing to the GHG
forcing, while keeping the temperature response fixed at the observed recent warming.
First, for changing just CO2
forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE
forcing, such as a change in incident solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE
radiative «
forcings» (feedbacks, though in the context of measuring their
radiative effect, they can be described as having
radiative forcings of x W / m2 per change in surface T), such as water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though changes in the position of the tropopause and changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for
forcing at TOA;
forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some of that into account; sensitivity to
forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be
different from sensitivity to
forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be
different from
forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment;
forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to
forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
Indeed, this was found to be true for any of several
different published volcanic
forcing series for the past millennium, regardless of the precise geometric scaling used to estimate
radiative forcing from volcanic optical depth, and regardless of the precise climate sensitivity assumed.
Radiative transfer models were never developed to estimate radiative forcing; they have entirely different, very practic
Radiative transfer models were never developed to estimate
radiative forcing; they have entirely different, very practic
radiative forcing; they have entirely
different, very practical, uses.
First, the Clarke et al. (2007) scenario considered a slightly
different definition of
radiative forcing than RCP4.5.
Due to the important role of ozone in driving temperature changes in the stratosphere as well as
radiative forcing of surface climate, several
different groups have provided databases characterizing the time - varying concentrations of this key gas that can be used to
force global climate change simulations (particularly for those models that do not calculate ozone from photochemical principles).
Therefore, the uncertainties in ozone changes in the tropical lower stratosphere and their characterization in
different databases using regression fits constitute a major barrier to understanding temperature trends and
radiative forcing.
Contributions of the
different greenhouse gases to total
radiative forcing in the RCP4.5 scenario
Different models may find different contributions of the various gases to radiative forcing due to underlying pollution abatement ass
Different models may find
different contributions of the various gases to radiative forcing due to underlying pollution abatement ass
different contributions of the various gases to
radiative forcing due to underlying pollution abatement assumptions.
The effect on
radiative forcing of assuming
different values for indirect aerosol
forcing.
Obviously I have written many thousands of comments on at least 30 or 40
different climate blogs (and literally hundreds of
different social media climate threads) and these cynical remarks are typical at first until people start to realise that I know my stuff and what I write is first - in - the - world breakthrough science that turns the
radiative forcing greenhouse conjecture on its head.
Figure 7.18 Annual mean top of the atmosphere
radiative forcing due to aerosol — radiation interactions (RFari, in W m — 2) due to
different anthropogenic aerosol types, for the 1750 — 2010 period.
The
radiative forcing potential of
different climate geoengineering options [PDF].
High and low cloud have
different optical properties — so it matters less to know the quantity of cloud than to know the changes in cloud
radiative forcing.
So the 3.7 W m - 2 calculation for global
radiative forcing could be refined perhaps by an improved experimental design (not necessarily by improved
radiative transfer models) running RT models at each grid cell over the globe, over the diurnal cycle and the annual cycle for say 30 years, for the two
different CO2 concentrations, such a detailed calculation would refine the 3.7 value.
Inverse modeling using Kaya's identity could identify the number of
different pathways among the various combinations of possible input variables that could result in a specific
radiative forcing scenario (say + / - 10 %).
So I don't think you can make up numbers for future warming much
different than the recent past, because we're already coming down from peak rates of
radiative forcing.
The second point means that it may be more difficult to distinguish between the response to
different factors than one might expect, given the differences in
radiative forcing.»
These
different SAT trends occur despite the fact that both simulations were subject to the identical
radiative forcing and were conducted with the same model, highlighting the role of internal atmospheric circulation variability in any single model run.
The DALR is established in Earth's atmosphere by vertically moving macroscopic parcels of air driven by thermal convection between volumes and surfaces at
different temperatures, temperature gradients maintained by diurnal solar
forcing and continual
radiative cooling.
In every IPCC report there is a graph showing the
different contributions to
radiative forcing since the pre-industrial era.
Methane does produce some stratospheric water vapor in AOGCMs and therefore a
forcing slightly
different from simple
radiative transfer calculations.
Radiative forcing (RF)[1] is a concept used for quantitative comparisons of the strength of
different human and natural agents in causing climate change.
S1 and Table S2), (iii)
different values of b for
radiative forcing obtained by fitting Eq.
Houghton (2004: 259) explains that when converting from carbon dioxide only concentrations to carbon dioxide equivalent concentrations, the amount that needs to be added varies with
different concentrations of greenhouse gases as the relationship between
radiative forcing and concentration is non-linear.