The Cu cases also show strikingly
different responses to warming with the two approaches (Figure 3).
Not exact matches
Understanding the
response of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
to global
warming requires quantitative data on ENSO under
different climate regimes.
The metric they have developed, the Vegetation Sensitivity Index (VSI), allows a more quantifiable
response to climate change challenges and how sensitive
different ecosystems are
to short - term climate anomalies; e.g. a
warmer June than on average, a cold December, a cloudy September, etc..
They, too, assume an equivalence in radiative forcing between GHG and aerosol, What they do is add
different estimates of the aerosol radiative forcing
to the GHG forcing, while keeping the temperature
response fixed at the observed recent
warming.
[
Response: There's some good thinking here, but I think you may have confused Gavin's discussion of the attempts by Andrae et al
to infer climate sensitivity from recent
warming with the question of whether there's a
different sensitivity coefficient for aerosol vs GHG radiative forcing.
[
Response: Dear Eric, I started
to find the scientific case for anthropogenic
warming compelling some time in the mid nineties, and naturally,
different observers would come
to this conclusion at somewhat
different times.
The
response to global
warming of deep convective clouds is also a substantial source of uncertainty in projections since current models predict
different responses of these clouds.
My studies in 70s & 80s using rainfall data series over
different parts of the globe matches the drought conditions over
different parts — which was attributed
to global
warming by WMO and sent my
response to Secretary General of WMO as those of my publications are with WMO library [book was reviewed by the Vice-President of Agrometeorology group in WMO].
Polar amplication is of global concern due
to the potential effects of future
warming on ice sheet stability and, therefore, global sea level (see Sections 5.6.1, 5.8.1 and Chapter 13) and carbon cycle feedbacks such as those linked with permafrost melting (see Chapter 6)... The magnitude of polar amplification depends on the relative strength and duration of
different climate feedbacks, which determine the transient and equilibrium
response to external forcings.
If the pictures are very similar despite the
different forcings that implies that the pattern really has nothing
to do with greenhouse gas changes, but is a more fundamental
response to warming (however caused).
Today and Wednesday a group of authors from across the
different working groups — examining the basics of climate science, the impacts of
warming and options for policy
responses — are meeting at Jasper Ridge in northern California
to come up with an approach for «consistent evaluation of uncertainties and risks.»
Over the weekend, a pair of very
different climate studies — one physical, one social — illustrated two uncomfortable, and related, realities confronting society as it grapples with possible
responses to human - driven global
warming.
Whereas the appearance of similar
warming events
to the 1920 / 30s event at
different times, with that
warming event not being consistenly present in all ensemble members at the same times is evidence that it was an outcome of internal variability, not a forced
response.
[
Response: There's some good thinking here, but I think you may have confused Gavin's discussion of the attempts by Andrae et al
to infer climate sensitivity from recent
warming with the question of whether there's a
different sensitivity coefficient for aerosol vs GHG radiative forcing.
There is uncertainty in the climate sensitivity of the Earth and in the
response of the carbon cycle, and the papers are extremely useful in the way that they propagate these uncertainties
to the probabilities of
different amounts of
warming.
They, too, assume an equivalence in radiative forcing between GHG and aerosol, What they do is add
different estimates of the aerosol radiative forcing
to the GHG forcing, while keeping the temperature
response fixed at the observed recent
warming.
If I understood Armour's paper correctly, he claimed that all feed - backs were close
to linear in
response to temperature over time, but that
different regional
warming rates (specifically, slow
warming at high latitudes) could make the feed - backs and sensitivity appear
to increase with time.
This book of research challenges readers
to consider the costs and benefits of
different responses to global
warming.
Namely, it is hard
to fingerprint when
different numerical simulations give
different responses... Just seeing for example that the troposphere
warms up more than the stratosphere, doesn't mean much.
«The global mean climate
responses to different forcings may differ because of the character of the forcings themselves (such as their geographical or vertical distribution) and because
different forcings induce
different patterns of surface
warming or cooling, thereby affecting the net top - of - atmosphere radiation imbalance, and thus the ocean heat uptake rate.»
Coupled simulations, using six
different models
to determine the ocean biological
response to climate
warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050 (Sarmiento et al., 2004), showed global increases in primary production of 0.7
to 8.1 %, but with large regional differences, which are described in Chapter 4.
There's no reason I can think of that long - term and short - term
response of the troposphere
to warming / cooling events (at least between the scale of a few years
to a few decades that's the issue here) would be any
different.
We continually cut trees, throwing garbage any where we want, chemical waste from
different industries are thrown in the bodies of water, smoke coming from cars, factories and even at home are not properly handled, there's still a lot of problems that we can address
to each and every one but if we will not move or take any action in
response to this issue our planet would die little by little, as we see earth today is now showing
to us the damage we had made such as earth quake, landslide, acid rain, global
warming and a lot more.
In 2009, the Copenhagen Consensus Center commissioned new research on the economics and feasibility of
different responses to global
warming, and then used Nobel Laureate economists
to evaluate that...
The transient
response is likely
to be
different from an equilibrium
response as climate
warms.
[
Response: Your argument misses the point in three
different and important ways, not even considering whether or not the Black Hills data have any general applicability elsewhere, which they may or may not: (1) It ignores the point made in the post about the potential effect of previous, seasonal
warming on the magnitude of an extreme event in mid summer
to early fall, due
to things like (especially) a depletion in soil moisture and consequent accumulation of degree days, (2) it ignores that biological sensitivity is far FAR greater during the
warm season than the cold season for a whole number of crucial variables ranging from respiration and photosynthesis
to transpiration rates, and (3) it ignores the potential for derivative effects, particularly fire and smoke, in radically increasing the local temperature effects of the heat wave.
For the ice sheets the answer is probably no (but experts on the subject might have a better idea), but for the overturning circulation or the ecosystem changes, the answer is probably yes — i.e. a slower rate of
warming could lead
to a
different response (allowing time for ocean mixing
to mitigate the effects, or adaptation of species
to the new conditions).
Then in
response to the particular observation that the balloon data lie especially far away from the modelers» expectations, the defence is: but we all know the balloon data is so uncertain and tunable that it can yield lots of
different interpretations, therefore it does not conflict with the hypothesis, so there's no need
to doubt the hypothesis of strong CO2
warming.
Okay, I should be slightly careful here, as the expectation is really that the feedback
response is not exactly linear as we double CO2, but this is thought
to be because of
different regions
warming at
different rates (polar amplification, for example) than because the
response is actually non-linear.
Conversely, if 95 % was attributable
to global
warming, the expectations for future events would be quite
different and so would the appropriate range of
responses.