If you refer to the global
dimming by aerosols, I don't think it was entirely «unrecognized» beforehand.
Not exact matches
It comes from ARM and James Hansen's references to global
dimming developing from clouds being enhanced and or formed
by pollution, sulfates, and or certain
aerosols and so forth.
Human
aerosol emissions are also offsetting a significant amount of the warming
by causing global
dimming.
How about BAU with carbon dioxide buildup partially masked
by aerosol - induced global
dimming, building climate crisis leading to a major economic recession?
«A rapid cutback in greenhouse gas emissions could speed up global warming... because current global warming is offset
by global
dimming — the 2 - 3ºC of cooling cause
by industrial pollution, known to scientists as
aerosol particles, in the atmosphere.»
As an aside, the radiative forcing
by aerosols (in both long wave and solar radiation at the tropopause) is not the same as global
dimming (which is a solar radiation effect at the surface) though they are related.
These are at the moment causing warming about the same as the
dimming produced
by sulphate
aerosols.
You have one basic misunderstandiing about global
dimming, it is not caused
by CO2 but
by SO2 and particulate pollution, what are called
aerosols.
Their belief came about because the optical physics of
aerosols, originating from Sagan and introduced to climate modelling
by his ex-students, Lacis and Hansen in 1974 at GISS / NAS, predicts the cloud part of «global
dimming», the increase of albedo
by aerosols supposed to hide present CO2 - AGW.
a) decreases («
dimming») until the 1980s, because atmospheric pollutants (
aerosols) make the atmosphere more reflective and also clouds,
by increasing the number of water droplets in the clouds, which in turn increases the amount of sunlight reflected, and subsequent
Mid-century
aerosol «global
dimming» and the subsequent partial reduction («global brightening») have been well described in the work
by Martin Wild and others.
This result is consistent with the MODIS and MISR AOT records as well as with the recent gradual reversal from brightening to
dimming revealed
by surface flux measurements in many
aerosol producing regions.
Now, how would all of this fit with the idea of GHGs - induced global warming mitigated
by aerosols (global
dimming)?
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Scientists claim that global warming from greenhouse gases is being countered somewhat
by global
dimming from
aerosol pollution.
This was likely an
aerosol increase from the increased refining of oil in Texas and more local emissions from cars, whose effect on
dimming is enhanced
by the humid environment in the SE, and perhaps land - use change -LRB-?).
Third: There was no cooling in the 1920s; in fact that was the start of a multidecadal warming trend that lasted until just after World War II (followed
by a brief cooling trend, possibly due to increased
aerosols dimming incoming sunlight together with some pretty big volcanic eruptions which did the same thing).
Most AGW supporters would argue that the observed sensitivity over the last 30 years has been suppressed
by dimming / sulfate
aerosols.
The
aerosol hypothesis is that sulfate
aerosols and black carbon are the main cause of global
dimming, as they tend to act to cool the Earth
by reflecting and scattering sunlight before it reaches the ground.
(
By the way, for those of you who already know about global cooling /
dimming and
aerosols, I will just say for now that these effects can not be making the blue line go down because the IPCC considers these anthropogenic effects, and therefore in the pink band.