I know that aerosols are a complicated issue but frankly speaking, I think that the IPCC estimate for
the direct effect of aerosols (+0.5 Wm2) is also too high.
Otherwise, changes in
the direct effect of aerosols, for example, would be incorrectly aliased onto cloud forcing.
@Ed Hawkins, I agree that
the direct effect of aerosols is good understood, but I have the impression that the models exaggerate their effect.
@FerdiEgb —
the direct effect of aerosols is fairly well understood, and produces a cooling effect — it is not just a convenient way to explain the flat period.
So,
the direct effect of aerosols is fairly well understood, and produces a cooling effect?
Another source of uncertainty comes from
the direct effect of aerosols from human origins: How much do they reflect and absorb sunlight directly as particles?
If
the direct effect of the aerosol increase is considered, surface temperatures will not get as warm because the aerosols reflect solar radiation.
A modeling study of
the direct effect of aerosol over the Tropical Indian Ocean.
Not exact matches
This mis - representation and can have significant ramifications for estimating the
direct and indirect
effects of aerosols on climate.
Most studies consider a range
of anthropogenic forcing factors, including greenhouse gases and sulphate
aerosol forcing, sometimes directly including the indirect forcing
effect, such as Knutti et al. (2002, 2003), and sometimes indirectly accounting for the indirect
effect by using a wide range
of direct forcing (e.g., Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002, 2006).
It is rather surprising that adding cloud lifetime
effect forcing makes any difference, insofar as Aldrin is estimating indirect and
direct aerosol forcings as part
of his Bayesian procedure.
When Aldrin adds a fixed cloud lifetime
effect of -0.25 W / m ^ 2 forcing on top
of his variable parameter
direct and (1st) indirect
aerosol forcing, the mode
of the sensitivity PDF increases from 1.6 to 1.8.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the climate forcing by
aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a forcing in the past decade
of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the
direct aerosol forcing and indirect
effects via induced cloud changes.
c) anthropogenic
aerosols — mainly sulfate and nitrate (from emissions
of SO2 and NOx / NH3) have a strong
direct effect and undoubted liquid cloud nucleation impacts (the indirect
effects).
Can any
of the experts lurking here refer me to any updates to the anthropogenic
direct effect aerosol radiative forcing digram — Figure 6.8 -(Figure 401) in the TAR?
However, simulations using the relatively straightforward «
direct effect»
of aerosols (the increase in albedo
of the planet due to the particle brightness) do not match the inferred changes.
Thus the balance is that soot has more positive
effect than the combined
direct and indirect negative
effects of sulphate (and other)
aerosols.
The top panel shows the
direct effects of the individual components, while the second panel attributes various indirect factors (associated with atmospheric chemistry,
aerosol cloud interactions and albedo
effects) and includes a model estimate
of the «efficacy»
of the forcing that depends on its spatial distribution.
In their calculations, the
direct tropo - spheric
aerosol effect does not play a large net role, because the moderately absorbing
aerosol assumption leads to an offset between its sunlight reflecting and absorbing properties insofar as the top
of the atmosphere irradiance change is concerned.
The
direct and indirect radiative
effects of biogenic secondary organic
aerosol.
In addition, some models include the indirect
effects of tropospheric sulphate
aerosols on clouds (e.g., Tett et al., 2002), whereas others consider only the
direct radiative
effect (e.g., Meehl et al., 2004).
To evaluate the global
effects of aerosols on the
direct radiative balance, tropospheric chemistry, and cloud properties
of the earth's atmosphere requires high - precision remote sensing that is sensitive to the
aerosol optical thickness, size istribution, refractive index, and number density.
Given our very short and spotty data on the relative abundance (or importance)
of the majority
of these
aerosols, and given our very poor understanding
of the
direct, indirect, and side
effects of the majority
of these
aerosols, any numbers that anyone generates about their abundance, importance, or total radiative forcing are going to be a SWAG.
Note, OA stands for Other Anthropogenic factors, primarilly the
aerosol direct and indirect
effects and Land Use Change, all
of which are negative forcings.
As I have pointed out before, it seems to me that a fair evaluation
of climate models is impossible when there remains vast uncertainty in
aerosol forcing (
direct and indirect), and substantial uncertainty in cloud
effects.
Forcing estimates for the
direct effect of sulphate
aerosols and other trace gases included in the DDC models are given in Chapter 6.
This review paper outlines the rationale for long - term monitoring
of the global distribution
of natural and anthropogenic
aerosols and clouds with specificity, accuracy, and coverage necessary for a reliable quantification
of the
direct and indirect
aerosol effects on climate.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the climate forcing by
aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a forcing in the past decade
of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the
direct aerosol forcing and indirect
effects via induced cloud changes.
Model simulations
of the Asian monsoon project that the sulphate
aerosols»
direct effect reduces the magnitude
of precipitation change compared with the case
of only greenhouse gas increases (Emori et al., 1999; Roeckner et al., 1999; Lal and Singh, 2001).
However, the total influence on monsoon precipitation
of temporally varying
direct and indirect
effects of various
aerosol species is still not resolved and the subject
of active research.
The spatial patterns
of RFs for non-LLGHGs (ozone,
aerosol direct and cloud albedo
effects, and land use changes) have considerable uncertainties, in contrast to the relatively high confidence in that
of the LLGHGs.
In this paper we present results from various field experiments demonstrating the contribution that the multi-angle multi-spectral photopolarimetric remote sensing measurements
of the NASA Glory mission will make to the determination
of the
direct and indirect radiative
effects of aerosols.
Several studies have considered the response
of a GCM with a mixed - layer ocean to indirect
aerosol effects (Rotstayn et al., 2000; K. Williams et al., 2001; Rotstayn and Lohmann, 2002) or to a combination
of direct and indirect
aerosol effects (Feichter et al., 2004; Kristjansson et al., 2005; Takemura et al., 2005).
Furthermore, estimating the
direct and indirect
aerosol effects (29) through 2008 as a residual from the Earth's energy balance (as was done for 1954 — 2000) would generate results that either support or contradict the increased importance
of anthropogenic sulfur emissions discussed above.
The
direct radiative
effects of aerosols can be divided in reflection and absorption.
2) A considerable part
of that
effect (apparently larger than thought before, according to the SOD) is produced by the
direct effect;
aerosols scatter sunlight and cool the surface.
As it is now, temperature response to volcanic forcing leads events in some cases which is obviously wrong and volcanic (
aerosols) forcing
direct and indirect
effects are the second largest source
of model uncertainty.
4) If the temperature
of the whole globe is being dragged down by the
aerosols direct effect but most
of the globe (the majority
of the oceans, the polar regions, the deserts,...) is basically unaffected by this DE, it makes sense to look at the instrumental record to see the coolness in the affected industrialized regions that would compensate for the lack
of aerosols on the rest
of the globe.
A large number
of modeling studies have been carried out to characterize the spatial variability in
aerosol forcing due to
direct, indirect, and semidirect
effects (IPCC, 2001).
We refer to the
direct and indirect
effects of human - made
aerosols.
It is rather surprising that adding cloud lifetime
effect forcing makes any difference, insofar as Aldrin is estimating indirect and
direct aerosol forcings as part
of his Bayesian procedure.
During a dry winter, the reduction
of aerosol concentrations in weekend days may overwhelmingly impact on the DTR through a
direct effect, i.e. by increasing total solar irradiance near the surface and raising the daytime temperature and maximum temperature, and lowering relative humidity.
The
direct and indirect
effects of human - related
aerosols on radiation, cloud, precipitation, and so on, might play an important role in generating the opposite signal in the weekend
effect for different seasons.
When Aldrin adds a fixed cloud lifetime
effect of -0.25 W / m ^ 2 forcing on top
of his variable parameter
direct and (1st) indirect
aerosol forcing, the mode
of the sensitivity PDF increases from 1.6 to 1.8.
Myhre, G., N. Bellouin, T.F. Berglen, T.K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, A. Grini, I.S.A. Isaksen, M. Johnsrud, M.I. Mishchenko, F. Stordal, and D. Tanre, 2007: Comparison
of the radiative properties and
direct radiative
effect of aerosols from a global
aerosol model and remote sensing data over ocean.
Yu, H., Y.J. Kaufman, M. Chin, G. Feingold, L.A. Remer, T.L. Anderson, Y. Balkanski, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher, S. Christopher, P. DeCola, R. Kahn, D. Koch, N. Loeb, M.S. Reddy, M. Schulz, T. Takemura, and M. Zhou, 2006: A review
of measurement - based assessment
of aerosol direct radiative
effect and forcing.
The most easily understood interaction between
aerosols and climate is the
direct effect (scattering and absorption
of shortwave and thermal radiation), which is discussed in detail in Chapter 2.
In terms
of sulphate
aerosols, both the
direct radiative
effects and the indirect
effects on clouds were acknowledged, but the importance
of carbonaceous
aerosols from fossil fuel and biomass combustion was not recognised (Chapters 2, 7 and 10).
This study will examine the current state
of knowledge regarding the
direct and indirect radiative forcing
effects of gases,
aerosols, land use, and solar variability on the climate
of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and it will identify research needed to improve our understanding
of these
effects.
The
direct and indirect radiative
effects of aerosols suspended in the atmosphere above clouds (ACA) are a highly uncertain component
of both regional and global climate.