The unsolved puzzle of how subtle variations driven by Earth - orbit changes can affect the climate suggests a closer look at feedback processes, including other pathways than
direct solar radiative forcing.
Numerous attempts to confirm these correlations based on different climate models have shown that it is only possible if either the applied perturbations of
direct solar radiative forcing are large (consistent with a
direct solar radiative forcing from the present to Maunder minimum ΔFP − M ~ 0.6 − 0.8 W / m2) or if the amplification of a weak direct solar forcing is substantial.
Not exact matches
Let's set the stage by noting that, as a significant competitor to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of recent climate change, the
direct radiative forcing by
solar irradiance variations is dead on arrival.
Solar activity impacts on climate are a fascinating topic, and encompass
direct radiative processes, indirect effects via atmospheric chemistry and (potentially) aerosol formation effects.
Using the known amplification of the
solar cycle (and presumably the long term trend) in the UV band, allowing stratospheric temperatures and circulation patterns to adjust and including the
direct radiative forcings from the sun and volcanoes, we found that it gave temperature anomalies and spatial patterns that were in fair agreement with the observations (Shindell et al, 2003).
Water itself effectively absorbs all incident infrared
solar radiation (e.g., Morel and Antoine, 1994), and this
direct radiative transfer process provides roughly half of the heat to the ocean surface waters.
The biggest error of all the errors in the physics of the
radiative greenhouse conjecture is that they «explain» the surface temperature of 288K using Stefan - Boltzmann calculations based on the
direct solar radiation PLUS about TWICE as much supposed thermal energy input from the colder atmosphere.
Solar radiative forcing is a
direct energy source to the Earth and is related to the change in TSI by ΔF = ΔTSI · (1 − A) / 4, where A is the Earth's albedo.
So, to my previous post, it looks like AR5 will give a bit more coverage to other sources of
solar forcing beside only
direct solar irradiance — it least in its chapter covering «
radiative forcing» if not in the chapter on «understanding and attributing climate change» (which is being written by a different group).
This study will examine the current state of knowledge regarding the
direct and indirect
radiative forcing effects of gases, aerosols, land use, and
solar variability on the climate of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and it will identify research needed to improve our understanding of these effects.
Based upon new and more reliable
solar reconstructions, the AR4 (Section 2.7.1.2) concluded that the increase in
solar forcing during the period 1900 - 1980 used in the AR3 reconstructions is questionable and the
direct radiative forcing due to increase in
solar irradiance is reduced substantially from the AR3.