It is quite true that a metric consisting of one number necessarily loses detail relative to looking at the entire
distribution of temperature changes.
I have compared it to water vapor levels, OLR, precipitation, rotation of the Earth, SOI, Pacific subsurface temperatures, Trade Winds, cloud patterns, precipitation, atmospheric angular momentum, the AMO, tropical / global temperatures, and the spatial
distribution of those temperature changes.
Some fraction of that may (depending on
the distribution of temperature change within the stratosphere and the optical thicknesses) be transferred to the TRPP forcing, reducing the TRPP forcing that the surface + troposphere must respond to.
But the issue is not really the global mean temperature (even though that is what is usually plotted), but
the distribution of temperature change, rainfall patterns, winds, sea ice etc..
In it he states «we asked the IPCC arctic group (consisting of 14 sub-groups headedby V. Kattsov) to «hindcast» geographic
distribution of the temperature change during the last half of the last century.»
Not exact matches
This «would create a persistent layer
of black carbon particles in the northern stratosphere that could cause potentially significant
changes in the global atmospheric circulation and
distributions of ozone and
temperature,» they concluded.
By coupling a cooking plate that provides exact
temperature distribution and instant recovery with a Steam Shell lid, cook times never
change and all
of the guess work is eliminated.
«Their
distribution has run up against a kind
of wall, because they're not establishing new territory fast enough to track the rapid
changes in
temperature.»
The science has given us now probability
distributions of various different kinds
of outcomes in terms
of temperature and climate
change in relation to given stocks
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The research, published yesterday in Nature Climate
Change, outlines a counterintuitive side effect of climate change: As higher temperatures drive plants and trees into areas now inhospitable to them, their new distribution speeds up temperature rise via natural processes such as releases of heat - trapping water vapor into th
Change, outlines a counterintuitive side effect
of climate
change: As higher temperatures drive plants and trees into areas now inhospitable to them, their new distribution speeds up temperature rise via natural processes such as releases of heat - trapping water vapor into th
change: As higher
temperatures drive plants and trees into areas now inhospitable to them, their new
distribution speeds up
temperature rise via natural processes such as releases
of heat - trapping water vapor into the air.
Scientists often measure the effects
of temperature on insects to predict how climate
change will affect their
distribution and abundance, but a Dartmouth study shows for the first time that insects» fear
of their predators, in addition to
temperature, ultimately limits how fast they grow.
Spiders have long been thought
of as a useful natural method
of pest control, but how will expected
temperature changes or other environmental
changes affect the spider's usefulness as pest - killers and their
distribution?
They point to direct effects resulting from rising
temperatures and
changes in the frequency and strength
of storms, floods, droughts, and heat - waves — as well as to less direct impacts, such as
changes in crop yields, the burden and
distribution of infectious disease, and climate - induced population displacement and violent conflict.
«There is unanimous agreement in the scientific community that a
temperature increase
of this magnitude would bring about significant
changes in the earth's climate, including rainfall
distribution and alterations in the biosphere.»
Because
of differences in vertical or horizontal
distribution of forcings, some
changes can have a more than proportional effect on
temperatures.
By precisely measuring the
changes in the brightness and color
of these sources as they rotate, we can explore their surface brightness
distributions, thus creating rough maps
of their cloud cover and
temperature distributions.
The researchers use computer models to forecast future ocean conditions such as surface
temperatures, salinity, and currents, and project how the
distribution of different fish species could respond to climate
change.
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool ocean surface
temperatures through exchange
of heat between the surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed layer, and by
changing the
distribution and extent
of cloud cover (which influences the radiative balance in the lower atmosphere).
We determined the
distribution of frequency fold
change for all OTUs after incubation for 4 days at ambient
temperature (Fig. 6A — D).
«But what we show is that you can blame this strong
change in the bell curve (
of temperature distributions) on global warming.
Copper instantly responds to
changes in
temperature and this thermal conductivity ensures an even
distribution of heat, so everything gets cooked consistently and evenly.
Those options include sound systems from Burmester and Bose, Porsche Rear - Seat Entertainment with swiveling 7 - inch screens, Lane
Change Assist, adaptive cruise control, thermally and noise - insulated glass, and 4 - zone automatic climate control — which allows separate adjustment
of air
temperature, blower intensity and air
distribution for each seat.
Those options include sound systems from Burmester and Bose, Porsche Rear - Seat Entertainment with swiveling 7 - inch screens, Lane
Change Assist, adaptive cruise control, thermally - and noise - insulated glass, and 4 - zone automatic climate control — which allows separate adjustment
of air
temperature, blower intensity and air
distribution for each seat.
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool ocean surface
temperatures through exchange
of heat between the surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed layer, and by
changing the
distribution and extent
of cloud cover (which influences the radiative balance in the lower atmosphere).
NASA Climate
Change Shifting
Distribution of Summer
Temperature Anomalies, 1951 - 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qFmVY4-G-Q&feature=plcp
But this might well be affected by aerosol
changes more than
temperature is, and
of course, the
distribution will not be uniform.
Although the primary driver
of glacial — interglacial cycles lies in the seasonal and latitudinal
distribution of incoming solar energy driven by
changes in the geometry
of the Earth's orbit around the Sun («orbital forcing»), reconstructions and simulations together show that the full magnitude
of glacial — interglacial
temperature and ice volume
changes can not be explained without accounting for
changes in atmospheric CO2 content and the associated climate feedbacks.
However,
changes in the
distribution of snowfall through the year, conceivably linked to increases in sea surface
temperature, may have reduced the reflectivity
of the glacier and played an even bigger role in forcing the retreat than
changes in air
temperature alone.
Release
of Carbon in melting permafrost being one, and
changes in ocean
temperatures and
distribution of land vegetation and so on will clearly complicate the issue.
Elicited consequences
of AMOC reduction include strong
changes in
temperature, precipitation
distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area.
Changes here have a long term effect, affecting the strength
of the north - ward horizontal flow
of the Atlantic's upper warm layer, thereby altering the oceanic poleward heat transport and the
distribution of sea surface
temperature (SST — AMO), the presumed source
of the (climate) natural variability.
I would suggest comparing peak to peak average
temperature captures during weighted El - Nino events (during the time they occur, if they can be compared equally this would be a telling graph), instead
of considering year to year records as a means
of reducing ENSO effects on the
temperature record, ENSO being largely a heat exchange between air and sea causing great
changes in cloud
distribution world wide.
Because
of differences in vertical or horizontal
distribution of forcings, some
changes can have a more than proportional effect on
temperatures.
Given an instantaneous forcing, a CRF models the
distribution of the resulting
temperature change over time.
re Gavin @ 223 I know what the mean global
temperature is (actually, I don't, see below) but the question was why is this a meaningful metric for looking at
changes over time, when you could get the same global mean from very different
distributions of temperature (eg increase the poles, decrease the tropics) which would have very different interpretations
of energy balance (at least if I am right that humidity matters)?
The climate
change in this period is generally believed to be associated with precessional
changes in the
distribution of solar radiation, which primarily affect land - sea
temperature contrast, and give only a regional warming, plus an enhancement
of certain monsoonal circulations.
Including emission along a path (Schwarzchild's equation), a flux will approach saturation as the optical thickness becomes large over scales where the
temperature variation is small; at smaller optical thicknesses, the
temperature distribution may vary and larger
temperature variations make the nonlinearity
of the Planck function important, but over short distances, the
temperature variation can be approximated as linear and the associated Planck function values can be approximated as linearly proportional to distance for small
temperature changes, so the flux will approach an asymptotic value as a hyperbolic function (the difference between the flux and the saturation value
of the flux will be proportional to 1 / optical thickness per unit distance (assuming isotropic optical properties (or even somewhat anisotropic properties), it will have that proportionality for all directions and thus for the whole flux across an area).
This draws into question the justification for
changing the baseline for the cumulative emissions analysis, given it quickly becomes apparent is that the use
of a different dataset can undermine the conclusion that present day
temperatures lie outside
of the model
distribution.
There will be Regionally / locally and temporal variations; increased
temperature and backradiation tend to reduce the diurnal
temperature cycle on land, though regional variations in cloud feedbacks and water vapor could cause some regions to have the opposite effect;
changes in surface moisture and humidity also
changes the amount
of convective cooling that can occur for the same
temperature distribution.
First, for
changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such as a
change in incident solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though in the context
of measuring their radiative effect, they can be described as having radiative forcings
of x W / m2 per
change in surface T), such as water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical
temperature distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though
changes in the position
of the tropopause and
changes in the stratospheric
temperature could also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some
of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
The
temperatures slowly
changed as the earth's position altered, in relation to the sun, causing the
distribution of energy received on earth to
change geographically and seasonally.
Local
changes in
temperature and rainfall have altered the
distribution of some water - borne illnesses and disease vectors (medium confidence).
One recent paper (Libardoni and Forest, 2011) has addressed how alternative observational records
of surface
temperature changes have an impact on the probability density
distributions.
Changing temperature and precipitation patterns can affect the life cycle and
distribution of insects, many
of which transmit diseases that already pose problems to public health in Wisconsin.
Aristotelian... This is definitely not a 1000 year representation, but it gives you a better idea
of the
changes in spacial
distribution of temperature on the planet for the past 150 years.
> It has been argued recently that the combination
of risk aversion and an uncertainty
distribution of future
temperature change with a heavy upper tail invalidates mainstream economic analyses
of climate
change policy.
Changing temperature and precipitation patterns can affect the lifecycle and
distribution of insects, many
of which transmit diseases that already pose problems for public health in Illinois.
From Figure 1 it looks as though a window
of no more than 120 months, and preferably only 60 months is desirable to capture the
changing distribution of temperature anomalies, however a shorter window may not provide enough data to reliably estimate the uncertainty.
The GISS homepage formerly said: The NASA GISS Surface
Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was e
Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) provides a measure
of the
changing global surface
temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was e
temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global
distribution of meteorological stations was established.
Potential impacts
of climate
change on the transmission
of Lyme disease include: 1)
changes in the geographic
distribution of the disease due to the increase in favorable habitat for ticks to survive off their hosts; 85 2) a lengthened transmission season due to earlier onset
of higher
temperatures in the spring and later onset
of cold and frost; 3) higher tick densities leading to greater risk in areas where the disease is currently observed, due to milder winters and potentially larger rodent host populations; and 4)
changes in human behaviors, including increased time outdoors, which may increase the risk
of exposure to infected ticks.