Improved understanding of the processes determining
the distribution of water vapor and its changes over time, including cloud processes and water vapor transport.
Note 1 — The total amount of water vapor, TPW (total precipitable water), is obviously something we want to know, but we don't have enough information if we don't know
the distribution of this water vapor with height.
It is true that water vapor and CO2 have some overlap of spectra, and
the distribution of water vapor vs height is different from CO2.
(Where Calipso seems very useful in demonstrating
the distribution of water vapor and its reflectivity value (Hence the association with temperature.)
While the amounts and
distribution of water vapor and clouds are feedbacks, the intrinsic properties are «externally - imposed» by the physics, as is the case with snow and ice, etc..
The other curve is a calculated actual OLR for the amount and
distribution of water vapor, CO2, CH4, etc, and clouds, for a vertical temperature profile, representative of the global atmoosphere.
In Relationships between Water Vapor Path and Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans, Bretherton et al showed that although the Western Pacific warmer surface waters increased the water in the atmosphere compared to the Eastern Pacific, rainfall was lower in the Western Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacific for equal amounts of water vapor in the atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of
the distribution of water vapor amounts.
The distribution of water vapor is the only thing that causes or doesn't cause global warming.
All the convective and advective goings on in the atmosphere act to establish the global
distributions of water vapor, clouds, and temperature.
Part Six — Nonlinearity and Dry Atmospheres — demonstrating that different
distributions of water vapor yet with the same mean can result in different radiation to space, and how this is important for drier regions like the sub-tropics
Not exact matches
The research, published yesterday in Nature Climate Change, outlines a counterintuitive side effect
of climate change: As higher temperatures drive plants and trees into areas now inhospitable to them, their new
distribution speeds up temperature rise via natural processes such as releases
of heat - trapping
water vapor into the air.
I will present new numerical models that treat dust coagulation / fragmentation, dust dynamics, simple gas - grain chemistry, and
vapor diffusion simultaneously, and explore the connection between the
water vapor in the disk atmosphere and the size -
distribution and ice - to - rock ratios
of the dust grains growing in the midplane.
The
distribution of water sources on the surface was derived by observing variations in the
water signal during the dwarf planet's nine - hour rotation period, which suggested that almost all
of the
water vapor was coming from just two spots on the surface.
«It is now widely known that the
water vapor feedback in general circulation models (GCMs) is close to that which would result from a climate ‐ invariant
distribution of relative humidity [Soden and Held, 2006], as long anticipated before the advent
of such models [e.g., Arrhenius, 1896; Manabe and Wetherald, 1967].»
Rearranaging the winds and
water vapor distribution strikes me as a good candidate for effecting a flip on the time scale
of a few years, with
water vapor content resetting the thermostat.
Depending on just what you assume about cloud and
water vapor distributions, this yields a radiative forcing
of about -2.5 Watts per square meter.
Thus there is convection within the troposphere that (to a first approximation) tends to sustain some lapse rate profile within the layer — that itself can vary as a function
of climate (and height, location, time), but given any relative temperature
distribution within the layer (including horizontal and temporal variations and relationship to variable CSD contributors (
water vapor, clouds)-RRB-, the temperature
of the whole layer must shift to balance radiative fluxes into and out
of the layer (in the global time averae, and in the approximation
of zero global time average convection above the troposphere), producing a PRt2 (in the global time average) equal to RFt2.
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out
of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction
of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction
of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness
of the stratosphere alone is large near the center
of the band, most
of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order
of 1 (mainly from stratospheric
water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than stratospheric
water vapor)(in the limit
of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out
of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction
of optically - significant wavelengths, the
distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
That was holding the
distribution of solar heating steady, which would require removing
water vapor, cloud, and ozone LW optical thickness but still leaving behind their SW (solar) optical properties.
There will be Regionally / locally and temporal variations; increased temperature and backradiation tend to reduce the diurnal temperature cycle on land, though regional variations in cloud feedbacks and
water vapor could cause some regions to have the opposite effect; changes in surface moisture and humidity also changes the amount
of convective cooling that can occur for the same temperature
distribution.
First, for changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such as a change in incident solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though in the context
of measuring their radiative effect, they can be described as having radiative forcings
of x W / m2 per change in surface T), such as
water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature
distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though changes in the position
of the tropopause and changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some
of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
There can / will be local and regional, latitudinal, diurnal and seasonal, and internal variability - related deviations to the pattern (in temperature and in optical properties (LW and SW) from components (
water vapor, clouds, snow, etc.) that vary with weather and climate), but the global average effect is at least somewhat constrained by the global average vertical
distribution of solar heating, which requires the equilibrium net convective + LW fluxes, in the global average, to be sizable and upward at all levels from the surface to TOA, thus tending to limit the extent and magnitude
of inversions.)
First and foremost is I have yet to see a good discussion on how Global Warming effects your observation
of a Northward movement
of the apparent circulation
of the ITCZ heat energy and
water vapor distribution.
A Lacis: You don't seem to appreciate the fact that
water vapor and clouds are feedback effects, which means that the
water vapor and cloud
distributions depend directly on the local meteorological conditions, and are therefore constrained by the temperature dependence
of the Clausius - Clapeyron relation.
You don't seem to appreciate the fact that
water vapor and clouds are feedback effects, which means that the
water vapor and cloud
distributions depend directly on the local meteorological conditions, and are therefore constrained by the temperature dependence
of the Clausius - Clapeyron relation.
We use the GISS model
of radiative transfer through the global atmosphere to try and break down the attribution using realistic
distributions of local temperature,
water vapor and clouds.
The upshot is flatlining temperatures observed in the last one or two decades may be caused by a hidden, as yet unidentified homeostatic mechanism mediated by changes in fine details
of water vapor distribution (never represented properly in computational models, neither measured ever).
Follow the
water vapor and you can follow the regional
distribution of AGW.
Andrew Lacis wrote: (3)
Water vapor and clouds account for about 75 % the strength
of the terrestrial greenhouse effect, but are feedback effects that require sustained radiative forcing to maintain their atmospheric
distribution.
Atmospheric
water vapor and cloud
distributions are the direct results
of the model physics interactions (via evaporation, transport, condensation, precipitation).
During this two - week transition period, any
water vapor excess (or deficit) relative to the equilibrium
distribution did
of course produce a radiative greenhouse heating (or cooling) effect, but this «virtual forcing» was very transient in nature, without any lasting impact on the global temperature.
(3)
Water vapor and clouds account for about 75 % the strength
of the terrestrial greenhouse effect, but are feedback effects that require sustained radiative forcing to maintain their atmospheric
distribution.
3 Further complicating the response
of the different atmospheric levels to increases in greenhouse gases are other processes such as those associated with changes in the concentration and
distribution of atmospheric
water vapor and clouds.
And the simple equations for how much
water vapor is in the atmosphere as a function
of temperature would be several percent, but, in addition, the
distribution of the storms that release the moisture is changing.
I have compared it to
water vapor levels, OLR, precipitation, rotation
of the Earth, SOI, Pacific subsurface temperatures, Trade Winds, cloud patterns, precipitation, atmospheric angular momentum, the AMO, tropical / global temperatures, and the spatial
distribution of those temperature changes.
States that other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes
of trace gases, changes in the
distribution of vegetation, changes in surface soil moisture, changes in atmospheric
water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas
of open ocean, impacts
of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning circulation
of the ocean, and changes in Arctic clouds resulting from changes in
water vapor content
«For example, the best global atmospheric models driven by specified sea surface temperatures can do a good job
of simulating global temperature, winds and
water vapor distributions.
The mean
distribution of precipitable
water, or total atmospheric
water vapor above the Earth's surface, is shown in Figure 2.
Modeling would be improved by systematic examination
of models's treatment
of water vapor in light
of what is now known
of its
distributions.
Figure 1 shows the mean vertical
distribution of temperature and the mixing ratio
of water vapor in the atmosphere.
The mean vertical
distribution of temperature and the
water vapor mixing ratio in the atmosphere are shown.
The challenge is how best to merge the available information on
water vapor distribution into an improved description
of the time and space variations
of water vapor to enhance climate studies.
The results are pictures
of global
water vapor distributions and their changes.
David, Wouldn't you agree that if the seasonal and geographic
distributions of atmospheric temperature,
water vapor, and clouds
distributions of climate model simulations are a reasonably close reproduction
of current climate conditions, that atmospheric dynamics is not a major obstacle or source
of bias in the modeling
of atmospheric effects.
It is the combined effects
of solar heating and greenhouse warming that establishes the atmospheric temperature structure and
water vapor and cloud
distribution.
Despite the simplicity
of this idea, which entirely neglects detailed microphysics and other small - scale processes, such models accurately reproduce the observed
water vapor distribution for the mid and upper troposphere (3, 4).
The oceans can impact global mean surface temperature in several ways; directly, through surface fluxes
of heat, or indirectly, by altering the atmospheric circulation and impacting the
distribution of clouds and
water vapor.