Given the mixed signals generated by the whipsaw
price action of September 18 and 20, combined
with the
price divergence among the major indices, investors and traders understandably may be scratching their heads right now.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high
price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve
with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal
divergence as measured by breadth and other market
action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled
with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
You can use many different kinds of supporting trading signals when you trade
divergence patterns, but for the purposes of this article, we'll be combining
price action signals
with our
divergence signals to get high - probability entries.